Bloomberg Business
A Hard Landing in China Could 'Shake the World'
11.20.2015 Malcolm Scott
Greater China Economy Editor for Bloomberg News 彭博社大中华区编辑
China's economic boom of the past 30 years means it now accounts for 11 percent
of world GDP and around 10 percent of world trade. For resources, it's an even
bigger player, accounting for 11 percent of world oil demand and 40 to 70
percent of demand for other key commodities, according to the Oxford Economics
research. Its financial system is massive, with its broad money supply now
larger than the U.S.'s and amounting to over 20 percent of the world's.
中国的经济蓬勃成长了三十年，成为现在占全世界GDP 11% 还有10%的全球贸易额。
财务系统相当庞大，货币供给甚至大于美。
So were China to sneeze, the world may well catch a cold.
所以当中国打喷嚏，全世界可能都会感冒
First to trade. The volume of goods imported into China have already fallen
by around 4 percent in the first three quarters of the year, after rising an
average 11 percent per year from 2004-14. That means China has cut around 0.4
percentage point from world goods trade growth in the nine months to the end
of September, after having added an average 1 percentage point a year in the
previous decade.
第一，贸易。进口货物数量在2015Q1-Q3减少了4%，而2004-2014年平均成长率是11%
意味着约有0.4%的全球贸易成长率受影响。
The biggest losers are those with the closest trade links and those whose
economies are most open.
最大的鲁蛇就是那些与中国贸易最紧密与经济最开放的国家
根据牛津经济论文集的资讯:
No.1 中国
No.2 台湾
No.3 韩国
2015 年 1 月到 10 月，中国进口台湾的商品同比下跌 6.5%，至总额 1,158.9 亿美金。
Oxford Economics原文:
Overall, the evidence still suggests that the most severe impacts of a
further Chinese economic slowdown would be on China’s main regional
trade partners and on commodity exporting countries.
总之，数据显示受到中国经济趋缓，将会严重冲击中国主要的区域贸易伙伴
还有那些出口产品的国家。
台湾景气灯号从三月开始就是黄蓝灯转蓝灯
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