这位Hal Brands在Bloomberg的文章都在这里
https://www.bloomberg.com/authors/ATKjVhct25c/hal-brands
新闻引用的是这篇文章
里面提到台湾的部份很少
非常少
A US Venezuela Victory May Help China Gain an Edge
https://tinyurl.com/3frf7bk9
The daring raid that snagged Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was an
awesome display of the capabilities that make the US military the world’s
best by far. It serves as proof that President Donald Trump’s corollary to
the Monroe Doctrine is real, and reminds us of his penchant for using force in
novel, surprising ways.
这场擒获委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜洛（Nicolás Maduro）的大胆突袭，
令人敬畏地展示了美军之所以能远超他国、称霸全球的实力。这证明了唐纳·
川普总统对《门罗主义》的推论是玩真的，也提醒了我们他偏好以新颖且出
人意料的方式动用武力。
Trump has, undeniably, struck down a bad leader — and struck a blow that
matters in the fight for global power. Yet the raid in Caracas also raises
harder questions about Venezuela’s future, the clash for influence in the
Western Hemisphere, and the rules of conduct in a disordered world.
无可否认，川普击倒了一位糟糕的领导人，并在全球权力斗争中打出了关键
一击。然而，这场在卡拉卡斯的突袭也引发了更棘手的问题，涉及委内瑞拉
的未来、西半球影响力的冲突，以及在动荡的世界秩序中的行为准则。
The operation’s success, with no reported US fatalities, is testament to the
ability of America’s intelligence community to find hard targets and America
’s military to strike them. It also gives Trump a trophy in his Western
Hemisphere campaign.
行动的成功且据报无美军伤亡，证明了美国情报体系发现困难目标的能力，
以及美军精准打击目标的实力。这也为川普在西半球的政治版图上增添了一
座战利品。
Since taking office last year, Trump has used various measures — diplomatic
pressure on Panama, support for friendly rulers in Argentina and El Salvador,
escalating coercion against Maduro, lethal strikes against suspected narco-
traffickers — to reassert US primacy in the Americas.
自去年上任以来，川普采取了多种措施——对巴拿马施加外交压力、支持阿
根廷和萨尔瓦多的友好领导人、升级对马杜洛的胁迫，以及对疑似毒贩进行
致命打击——以重新确立美国在美洲的主导地位。
Maduro seems likely to spend many years in a US prison. His fate is a stark
warning of how seriously this administration takes the threat of hostile Latin
American leaders that seek ties to Beijing and Moscow — a fact Trump
emphasized after the strike.
马杜洛看来很可能在美国监狱中度过多年。他的下场是一个严厉的警告，显
示本届政府如何严肃看待那些寻求与北京和莫斯科建立联系的敌对拉丁美洲
领导人之威胁——川普在行动后也强调了这一点。
The raid also showcased Trump’s preferred way of war. In June, Trump used
misdirection and disinformation to disguise preparations for his strike on
Iran’s nuclear facilities. In recent days, his administration ran the same
play again.
这次突袭也展示了川普偏好的战争方式。今年六月，川普利用误导和虚假信
息来掩护对伊朗核设施打击的准备工作。近日，他的政府再次上演了同样的
戏码。
Reports that Trump would settle for a blockade of Venezuelan oil, or that he
was preparing to negotiate, were presumably meant to give Maduro a false sense
of security. Trump’s way of war involves maximizing secrecy and surprise
that accentuate US advantages — and clear the way for precise uses of force
that allow the president to start and end conflicts on his own terms.
有关川普将满足于对委内瑞拉石油进行封锁，或正准备谈判的报导，推测是
为了给马杜洛一种虚假的安全感。川普的战争之道包括将保密和奇袭最大化
，以凸显美国的优势——并为精准动用武力扫清障碍，让总统能根据自己的
条件开始并结束冲突。
There is, additionally, another parallel to Trump’s Iran strike: This attack
shows the limits of solidarity among the autocratic powers.
此外，这与川普对伊朗的打击还有另一个相似之处：这次攻击显示了专制强
权之间团结的局限性。
Russia and China are howling about violations of Venezuelan sovereignty. They
have sustained Maduro for many years. But they can only offer thoughts and
prayers in the face of determined American power projection in the Western
Hemisphere — just as they couldn’t or wouldn’t save the Iranian regime from
military humiliation at the hands of Israel and the US.
俄罗斯和中国正对侵犯委内瑞拉主权的行为大声疾呼。他们支撑了马杜洛多
年。但在美国于西半球展现坚定的武力投射面前，他们只能提供精神支持和
祈祷——就像他们无法或不愿从以色列和美国造成的军事羞辱中拯救伊朗政
权一样。
There’s much to applaud, then, in a tactical success that will likely have
real strategic benefits. There are also uncertainties ahead.
因此，这场很可能带来实质战略利益的战术成功非常值得赞赏。但未来也充
满不确定性。
The first involves the future of Venezuela. Trump has achieved leadership
change, but not regime change, since many hardline figures in Maduro’s
government remain.
第一点涉及委内瑞拉的未来。川普实现了领导人的更换，而非政权的更迭，
因为马杜洛政府中的许多强硬派人物依然在位。
Trump has pledged that the US will “run the country” to oversee a democratic
transition; he has threatened additional attacks if regime remnants don’t
play along. But even if this squeeze play works, any political transition
could be long and messy, since it involves undoing the damage — economic,
political, social — from nearly 30 years of Chavismo. We’ll see how much
appetite an anti-nation-building president has for that.
川普承诺美国将“治理该国”以监督民主转型；他威胁如果政权余孽不配合
，将发动额外攻击。但即便这种高压策略奏效，任何政治转型都可能是漫长
且混乱的，因为这涉及修复近 30 年“查维斯主义”（Chavismo）所造成的
经济、政治和社会破坏。我们将观察这位反对“国家建设”（
nation-building）的总统对此有多少耐心。
Second, the great-power fight for the Western Hemisphere is far from over.
China has spent decades investing in infrastructure, trade and other
relationships with Latin American countries. The monuments to its influence
include mega-ports in Peru and a massive space-tracking station in Bolivia.
Its police and security ties have been expanding, as well.
第二，大国在西半球的争夺远未结束。中国数十年来一直在拉丁美洲国家投
资基础设施、贸易及其他关系。其影响力的象征包括秘鲁的巨型港口和玻利
维亚的大型太空追踪站。其警察和安全联系也一直在扩张。
Beijing, coincidentally, released a paper on its involvement in Latin America
in December. The thrust of it was that the global balance of power is changing
in ways that favor the expansion of Chinese influence.
巧合的是，北京在 12 月发布了一份关于其参与拉丁美洲事务的白皮书。其
核心主旨是全球权力平衡正在发生变化，其方式有利于中国影响力的扩张。
Trump has served notice that there’s only one great power in the Americas,
when it comes to military muscle; Latin American countries will surely be even
more cautious about offering Beijing access to anything that looks like a
base, at least for now. But China will keep seeking economic, technological
and political ties in the region, as part of a play for long-term advantage.
川普已经发出告示，在美洲军事武力方面，只有一个大国；至少在目前，拉
丁美洲国家在向北京提供任何看起来像军事基地的设施时，肯定会更加谨慎
。但中国将继续在该地区寻求经济、技术和政治联系，作为争取长期优势策
略的一部分。
Finally, bad actors may exploit this precedent. The Trump administration
argues, plausibly, that this operation was legal because Maduro was under US
indictment. It can point to the invasion of Panama in 1989 to depose Manuel
Noriega, as evidence that Washington has done this before.
最后，恶意行为者可能会利用这一先例。川普政府振振有词地辩称，由于马
杜洛受到美国起诉，这次行动是合法的。它可以指出 1989 年入侵巴拿马以
废黜诺瑞嘉（Manuel Noriega）的往事，作为华盛顿以前也这么做过的证据。
Yet if Beijing has been watching closely, perhaps that’s because Trump’s
tactics — blockading a hostile country, decapitating its leadership — could
ultimately be useful against Taiwan.
然而，如果北京一直在密切关注，或许是因为川普的战术——封锁敌对国家
、斩首其领导层——最终可能被用于对付台湾。
In a unipolar post-Cold War era, the US didn’t have to worry about rivals
emulating its tactics. In today’s more challenging environment, its example
might, one day, be used in nasty ways.
在冷战后的单极时代，美国不必担心对手效仿其战术。在当今更具挑战性的
环境中，美国所立下的榜样，有朝一日可能会被以恶劣的方式利用。