其实 台湾走这一步早就有端倪了
年初疫情再起时 原本大家预期是大学学测完后
可能会在一月下旬 再升三级清零 后来苏贞昌进CDC后
没有升三级 那时候的防疫就很明显出现摇摆了
结果就是目前看到这样
共存的目标是什么 政府应该不敢明说
基本上就是 大家都可能染疫
染疫的结果 达到对病毒的自然抗体
这个过程走得慢又长 医疗量能就可以维持
但病毒不是可控的 这个目标需要人为干预
干预的结果 后面就会需要人力物力财力还有心力去维持
国外的经验告诉我们 基本上都会走向失败
所以另外一条路 就是趁病毒还没变的危险前
利用台湾岛屿四面环海封闭特性 快速大量感染单一种病毒
这个结果就是医疗量能会崩溃
试算群体免疫要六成以上 台湾大概要1400万以上感染人数
日均20万以上感染数 大概要两到三个月才有可能达成
这是不干预的状况下 干预就会拖更久
由于目前没有特效药 所以一般药物都是以缓解症状为主
那些预防重症的药 留给小孩跟老人吧 其他就别想太多了
你想想我们才有多少......这种药物
染疫隔离 跟第一圈隔离 主要还是在控制传播速度
目前来说之前指挥中心 在那边3+4 基本上就是脱裤子放屁
新制感染隔7天
第一圈隔离3天后 基本上就不需要+4了(这个目前没记错还没取消)
有症状就快筛 筛完阳性就走流程
要直接就是感染7天 第一圈3天两个标准走到底
7天关完还没好就继续休养
谁可以确认染疫 快筛如果需要PCR 就乖乖使用大型场馆或场地
每个县市都建立野战医院 不要在急诊室外做了 中重症再转医院就好
轻症直接就是开药跟诊断证明书(多开几份) 然后请他回去休息
事后再持诊断证明书 跟卫生单位、劳保等申请相关文件
第一圈的隔离者 卫生单位基本上应该也无法开了
一样就是用诊断证明书+同居证明(同户籍)事后申请隔离书
如果提不出同居证明就是切结书或里长证明书代替
阳性在家如果症状加剧再打119送野战医院 判断是否需要转送
野战医院看诊所医护愿不愿意加入(有染疫风险) 政府可以征召付钱
看一天多少 不用在那边质疑有没有换气设备等等
才不会在那边闲置医护人力
至于大量死亡案例 用点脑袋想就知道
万分之一死亡率的话 1400万大概会有1400个 看医疗能控制到哪里
这毋须恐慌 活好自己就好
正常吃正常睡正常运动 均衡饮食
补给品 我个人会补充综合维他命或B群 帮忙维持身体一些机能
毕竟有时候摄取不见得会全面 也不会想吃什么太贵重的
就是平价 有信誉的厂商就好
戴好口罩 勤洗手 有空消毒自己周遭环境 减少不必要的活动
室内之前讲过了 弄台便宜的空气清净机 能装HEPA13以上的滤网
不抗病毒 但能阻绝其他不少细菌 能让案情单纯点
我也简单准备了一点存粮跟一瓶感冒药
剩下祝大家好运
以上均为个人心得与意见 不属于任何立场 任何防疫资讯请以政府机关公告为主
※ 引述《caeasonfb (eason)》之铭言：
: 1.媒体来源: 每日电讯报(The Telegraph)
: 2.记者署名: Nicola Smith
: 3.完整新闻标题:
: Taiwan, hailed for its gold standard Covid strategy, now faces ‘potential for lots of deaths’
: 曾为疫情模范生的台湾现在须面对可能的大量死亡案例
: 4.完整新闻内文:
: Taiwan, hailed for its gold standard Covid strategy, now faces ‘potential
: for lots of deaths’
: As the ‘zero Covid’ stalwart flinches at China's strict omicron lockdowns,
: has it done enough to follow Singapore and South Korea's example?
: 眼见中国封城效果不彰，但要仿照新加坡及韩国，台湾做好准备了吗?
: Within a few short weeks, Taiwan has been catapulted from a few hundred
: Covid-19 cases a day to tens of thousands. The island now faces the daunting
: prospect of a vertical trajectory of infections that could trigger
: unprecedented death rates by this summer.
: 数周内，台湾单日确诊数已从数百例暴增到上万。台湾正面对像垂直弹道般的惊人感染状况，可能在夏季前造成前所未有的死亡率。
: Anxious city dwellers are trying to carry on as normal, but restaurants, gyms
: and schools are emptying out as people try to adjust to a dramatic shift from
: the first two years of the pandemic, when the country was seen as one of the
: world's few safe havens.
: 紧张的民众试着正常生活，但只见餐厅健身房学校空荡荡。
: Taiwan successfully fought back every new outbreak and curbed infections and
: deaths with a “zero Covid” strategy that, like neighbouring China, relied
: on strict border controls and lengthy quarantine on arrival.
: 过去台湾靠着跟中国一样的边境管制与隔离的严格清零政策守住了每一波感染。
: But now in the face of unprecedented surges driven by the highly contagious
: omicron variant, democratic Taiwan is diverging from authoritarian China.
: 眼前面对omicron病毒，民主台湾决定走不同于专制中国的路。
: While Beijing is doubling down on its stringent “zero Covid” approach,
: Taiwan is shifting away from a suppression strategy. This week, Taipei also
: condemned China’s stringent lockdowns as “cruel” – jolting video from the
: modern city of Shanghai has revealed hungry residents appealing for food, and
: citizens in Hebei province being bolted into their homes.
: Rather than emulating China, Taiwan has its sights on South Korea and
: Singapore – which have successfully reduced restrictions while keeping death
: rates low. But with little natural immunity and suboptimal vaccination rates
: among the vulnerable, experts predict Taiwan could face a rocky ride.
: 台湾把目光放在韩国及新加坡成功解封并保持低死亡率的例子上。但专家预测不足的自然免疫率及疫苗接种率将会让台湾走得很辛苦。
: On Thursday it breached 30,000 cases for the first time, and with an average
: daily increase of 15 to 20 per cent, experts like Chase Nelson, a
: Taipei-based computational biologist, predict Taiwan could peak at around
: 200,000 infections a day.
: Only 15 per cent of the entire 23.5 million population remain unvaccinated,
: but one of Taiwan’s biggest challenges lies in the alarming statistic that
: 21 per cent of over-75s have resisted the jab – many of them over fears
: about side-effects.
: That number has barely shifted since the sudden turnaround from a few dozen
: cases a day to tens of thousands within a few weeks.
: “The outbreak did give a kick in the pants to some people who had been
: waiting but it doesn’t seem to be that substantial,” said Mr Nelson, who
: estimates that if the vaccine pick-up remains the same, it will take five
: months for an additional 10 per cent of over-75s to get just one dose.
: “A fraction are just not going to do it. It’s almost like they would take a
: chance on something they can’t control the timing of, which is their
: infection,” he added.
: The numbers could push Taiwan closer to Hong Kong, which has seen more than
: 9,300 – largely elderly – deaths for its 7.3m population, rather than
: nearby South Korea, which recently weathered more than 600,000 cases a day by
: getting booster shots to more than 90 per cent of those aged 60 and above.
: While fatalities have so far remained low, experts warn that true figures are
: being masked by a time lag of two to four weeks.
: 专家警告目前的低死亡率是假象，约需2-4周才会真实呈现。
: An alarming analysis last month in Taiwan’s Commonwealth Magazine estimated
: that some 22,000 senior citizens could die if vaccination rates did not pick
: up, basing its calculation on Hong Kong’s fatality rates.
: 台湾的天下杂志预测，若台湾的疫苗接种率不变，以香港的死亡率推估，未来将有2.2万长者病殁。
: For two years, Taiwan was hailed globally as a gold standard for its handling
: of the pandemic, keeping deaths below 1,000 and its economy afloat, but flaws
: in the country’s exit strategy risked an “underwhelming finish,” warned Mr
: Nelson.
: 过去两年台湾被全球视为防疫模范生，但目前有缺陷的国家政策只会导致平庸的成果。
: “I think it is doing some things right and some things poorly,” he said. “
: I do think it is wise to recognise that maintaining absolutely zero Covid
: with something as contagious as omicron is not a long-term viable strategy,
: as is evidenced by Shanghai.”
: 面对omicron，放弃长期清零的策略正确。
: ‘Hospitals beginning to be overwhelmed’
: With vaccinations fresh, and plateauing, now was a “well-calculated” time
: to drop restrictions during an outbreak of the milder omicron variant, he
: said. This week, Taiwan’s health ministry dropped quarantine on arrival to
: seven days.
: “At the same time, Taiwan has really done this quickly and they missed an
: opportunity to say what they were planning and to prepare people for it,” Mr
: Nelson added. “They have instead had this feeling of making up guidelines as
: they go along… There is a lot of confusion, understandably, and I don’t
: think that has been a wise move in terms of their strategy.”
: 但台湾解封太快却忽略宣导政策规划并超前部署。感觉像且战且走做出的政策指引让人迷惑，这步走得很不明智。
: Taiwan’s testing capacity, in particular, has been pushed to its limits,
: with long queues snaking round pharmacies to obtain scarce home kits, and
: lengthy waits for PCR tests.
: 特别是台湾的检测量能已到极限，可以看到抢买稀有快筛的人龙包围药局，还有长长的队伍等著做PCR。
: “Testing capacity is being outstripped. Hospitals are beginning to show
: signs of being overwhelmed to some extent. I think that means the potential
: for a lot of deaths unfortunately,” said Mr Nelson.
: 检测量能不足、医院被挤爆，就代表可能发生大量不幸的死亡案例。
: Professor Chan Chang-chuan from National Taiwan University College of Public
: Health pointed to two major shortfalls as Taiwan sought to adjust to Covid-19
: as endemic.
: 台湾的詹长权教授还指出台湾抗疫的两大缺口: 未购买足够给12岁以下儿童使用的BNT疫苗；未事先强化医疗体系并提供民众足够的自主在家隔离指引。
: One had been the failure to order enough Pfizer vaccines for the under-12s,
: he said.
: Last month, Taiwan approved the use of the Moderna vaccine for children aged
: 6-11, but while this mirrors similar moves in the UK and EU, the hesitancy of
: the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to greenlight the shot for children
: has left Taiwanese parents uncertain.
: Secondly, unlike Singapore, the authorities had not empowered the primary
: healthcare system or prepared the public enough to self-isolate and treat
: themselves at home.
: In recent weeks, the country was shaken by the deaths of a two-year-old boy
: and 20-year-old woman, who had a severe reaction to the virus and were
: diagnosed too late.
: 台湾这几周因发生2岁童及20岁女性对病毒严重反应及太晚确诊死亡的案例而举国震惊。
: Singapore, which began the shift already last summer to treat Covid-19 like
: the flu, did much groundwork ahead of time and had not experienced any deaths
: among children, said Prof Chan.
: 但新加坡去年夏天开始把新冠当流感后，就因为做好基本前置部署，没有发生任何儿童死亡案例。
: “They built a recovery from home programme step by step and gave out
: instructions to give people who are staying at home proper and timely medical
: advice, like telemedicine, phone calls, consultations,” he said.
: 新加坡逐步建构了在家疗程，还提供居家者适当适时的医疗建议，像是远距医疗、电话关切、咨询等。正因新加坡民众就算在家也能获得仔细的指引资讯，所以紧急医疗量能能保留给最需要的人。
: “People were educated to be careful even if at home. They have the
: information,” he added. “By doing this they reserved critical care capacity
: so the most needy can be treated.”
: Taiwan was adjusting to the rapidly changing situation but needed to step up
: measures to encourage the elderly to vaccinate by restricting their access to
: crowded gatherings and offering more healthcare assistance to allow them to
: take the jab at home, said Prof Chan.
: “In living with Covid we have to control the pandemic to a risk level that
: is acceptable.”
: 要共存，我们必须将风险控制在可接受的范围。
: 5.完整新闻连结 (或短网址)需放媒体原始连结，不可用转载媒体连结:
: https://tinyurl.com/5xb55r2f
: 6.备注: