楼主:
wawi2 (@@)
2014-12-28 14:11:09去纽时网站找了一篇文章，应该是这篇吧?
发文日期是12/26号(我猜是中时记者在台湾时间27日看到美国26日的新闻)
内容也提到民进党推动公投也引述 1) 孔杰荣、2)吴钊燮、3)杨立宪 的话
所以应该就是这篇了!
原文颇长也很中立，请看完米国记者的完整报导。
原标题:
Loss by Taiwan's Governing Party Raises Fears That Ties With China Will Sour
中译：台湾执政党的挫败唤醒了两岸交流倒退的疑虑
TAIPEI, Taiwan — A recent defeat of Taiwan’s pro-China governing party in
local elections has raised expectations that the pro-independence opposition
could win the next national election, increasing concerns about a return to
the bitterness that previously defined the cross-strait relationship.
台北/台湾
日前台湾的亲中执政党(指中国国民党)在地方选举的挫败使人预期2016年的总统/立委选
举将由偏向台独的团体获胜，也挑起了有关两岸是否重回过去那苦涩日子的议题。
When the opposition Democratic Progressive Party last held power, it presided
over a period of tensions with the mainland, angering Beijing by holding
referendums that touched on Taiwan’s relationship with China.
当反对党民主进步党最近一次执政的时候(应该是指2000-2008)，该党因举办了关于两岸
路线的公民投票而引起了两岸的紧张，也因此激怒了北京当局。
Beijing, which considers Taiwan part of its territory, saw those votes as
possible preludes to a referendum on independence. China passed a law in 2005
approving the use of force if Taiwan formally declared independence, and
American officials worried publicly about the risk of being pulled into an
armed conflict with China over the island.
向来认为台湾是中国的一部份的北京当局视此次地方选举可能将为台湾独立公投揭开序幕
。中国在2005年通过一道法令使解放军在台湾独立之时可以合法地使用武力，而美国官方
也不掩饰地对两岸可能陷入军事冲突感到担心。
Now, some observers fear that a loss by the governing Chinese Nationalist
Party, or Kuomintang, in national elections to be held in early 2016 could
herald a return to the troubles of that era.
现在，一些观察家害怕中国国民党在2016的全国性选举(总统/立委选举)的败选将使
得两岸回到过去充满麻烦的时代。
“Looking ahead to next year’s campaign, the trend is really bad for the
Kuomintang, and if it’s bad for the Kuomintang, then it’s bad for the
development of cross-strait relations,” said Yang Lixian, a researcher with
the Beijing-based National Society of Taiwan Studies.
北京的某单位的(Beijing-based National Society of Taiwan Studies)
某研究员杨立宪说未来一年的选举活动，中国国民党的前景堪忧，而若果真如此，这
对两岸关系的发展亦不是件好事。
Relations with China have warmed under Taiwan’s current government. In the
past eight years, the two sides signed 21 agreements promoting greater
cross-strait trade and travel, and China seemed content to let its economic
embrace do what years of saber-rattling could not in bringing Taiwan closer
to its side.
当前政府使得两岸关系暖了起来，在过去8年(有笔误，个人认为应该是过去6年)，两岸签
署了21项协议，提升了两岸的贸易及旅游往来，而中国貌似也同意以经济取代武力恫吓，
以期将台湾慢慢地拉向中国。
But many Taiwanese have raised concerns that growing trade ties with China
undermine the island’s autonomy, and question their benefits.
但是大多数的台湾人民担心日益频繁的两岸关系将破坏台湾的自主性，同时也质疑这些关
系所带来的好处。
Last spring, students occupied Taiwan’s legislative building for more than
three weeks to protest efforts by the Kuomintang to push through a pact with
China on trade in services like advertising, finance and travel. That
occupation, known as the Sunflower Movement, was accompanied by large public
protests in the capital, Taipei.
今年春天，学生占领了台湾立法院超过三周，该举动为的是抗议中国国民党与中国推动的
两岸服贸(包advertising、finance及travel)条例。而该举动(亦称太阳花学运)同时也伴
随着一些在首都台北发生的一些大型抗议活动。
Then last month, voters handed the Kuomintang a heavy defeat in elections for
more than 11,000 local positions, amid concerns about food safety, slow
economic growth, wage stagnation, housing prices and the growing gap between
rich and poor.
上个月，在食安、经济成长缓慢、薪资停滞不前、房价以及贫富差距等氛围中，台湾选民
双手送给中国国民党一次极大的选举挫败，该选举的应选名额超过一万一千名。
Those races focused on local issues, and none of the offices has a say over
cross-strait policy. But in the 2016 presidential and legislative elections,
the divide between those who favor independence and those who argue for a
future as part of China will play a more central role.
此次选举主要是地方事务，选出的公职人员在两岸政策上亦无任何的决定权。但是接下来
的2016总统及立委选举，统独双方攻防将扮演重要的角色。
Some voters question economic cooperation because China has not renounced the
possible use of force against the island. Others believe that the increased
ties have not benefited most Taiwanese: While trade between the two sides has
soared under President Ma Ying-jeou, wages have remained stagnant.
一些选民质疑两岸经济上的合作，因为中国至今仍不轻言否认以武力攻台的可能性。而其
他人则认为两岸合作的增加并不能为大部份的台湾人民带来好处，意即：在马英九的领导
下，两岸贸易日益热络，但[台湾人民的]薪资仍停滞不前
The trade pact has stalled in the legislature. As part of the compromise that
brought an end to the Sunflower protests last spring, lawmakers are debating
new rules for monitoring agreements with China before taking any further
action on the deal.
两案贸易协定卡在立法院。做为终止太阳花学运的妥协之一，立法委员在两岸监督条例上
展开攻防，而在监督条例过关之前，任何两岸之间的法案将搁置*。
*我想翻成搁置比较符合语意
Approval of the pact or any other deals with China seems unlikely for the
remainder of Mr. Ma’s term, observers say. He stepped down as head of his
party to accept blame for the Kuomintang’s electoral drubbing.
观察家指出，在马英九仅存的任期中，两岸之间似乎不太可能再有任何协议。在选举失利
后，马英九接受指责并交出了中国国民党的权力核心。
Beijing made little comment about the election outcome, but observers say
cross-strait relations may become more complicated.
北京对于此次选举的结果几无任何发言，但是观察家说两岸关系将变得更复杂。
“Taiwan is going to be increasingly in the public eye because of growing
tension with the mainland,” said Jerome A. Cohen, a New York University law
professor who focuses on the region. “It will have implications for
U.S.-mainland policy and for U.S.-Taiwan policy.”
纽约大学法学院教授Jerome A. Cohen指出，台湾将因两岸接下来的紧张关系而受到瞩目
，也将牵连美中政策与美台政策。
He said he foresaw a period of increased acrimony in the region as the
possibility for further cross-strait agreements diminished. But leaders of
the opposition say such fears are overblown and based largely on the record
of President Chen Shui-bian, the opposition leader who served from 2000 to
2008.
Jerome A. Cohen说他预见随着未来两岸协定的减少的可能性将使两岸将有一段逐渐分歧
的时期。但是在野党领导者指出，这些担心被过度夸大了，而且该担心的由来是基于
2000-2008之间执政的陈水扁的纪录。
“Whoever has the chance to be entertained as a potential candidate for the
2016 presidential election, they’re different,” said Joseph Wu, the party’
s secretary general. “They’re not Chen Shui-bian.”
民进党祕书长吴钊燮指出任何一位2016选举的总统候选人都不能代表什么，他们又不是陈
水扁。
Mr. Chen, Taiwan’s only non-Kuomintang president, was an advocate of
independence who often angered China and worried the United States. The party
’s new generation of politicians is more measured, Mr. Wu said.
吴钊燮也说，陈水扁(台湾目前唯一的非中国国民党籍的总统)鼓吹台湾独立而激起了中国
的敌意与美国的担忧。但民进党新世代是很慎重滴。
“They have different qualities and understand very well the dynamics of the
U.S.-Taiwan-China relationship,” he said. “They also have a very clear
understanding of values we should treasure in our relationship with the
United States, and they also understand the sensitivity of our China policy.”
吴钊燮指出，他们(指陈水扁与民进党的新世代)拥有不同的特质，且非常了解美中台三方
的动态关系，新世代们很明白台湾与美国间的关系是值得珍惜的，也了解对中国政策的敏
感度。
Mr. Ma’s cross-strait policy helped him pull in voters in 2012, putting
pressure on the opposition to reconsider its China policy. In recent years,
it has worked to develop closer ties with Beijing despite their mutual
suspicions. Opposition politicians like former Premier Frank Hsieh and Mayor
Chen Chu of Kaohsiung, a southern port city, have visited China. And Mayor
Chen hosted Zhang Zhijun, head of China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, in June.
马先生的两岸政策令他在2012的选举中胜出，使得在野党须重新思考其对中政策。近年来
，马先生的两岸政策使得即使两岸双方对彼此仍有顾虑，两岸关系还是越来越紧密。在野
党的前阁揆谢长挺及高雄市市长陈菊都拜访过中国，且陈菊还接待了在六月来访的张志军
。
The party has even debated a freeze to the call in its platform for Taiwanese
independence.
民进党也对于台独平台是否冻结的问题展开激辩。
Some opposition leaders fear that the United States will try to derail their
chances by speaking out in favor of the Kuomintang, in the belief that the
governing party is better at managing cross-strait ties. They are still
smarting from a comment by an American official in 2012 that they believe
damaged their prospects.
一些在野党领导人害怕美国认为中国国民党比较能处理两岸关系进而支持该党，这将影响
在野党的机会。在野党对美国官方在2012的评论感到头痛。
Richard C. Bush III, former chairman of the American Institute in Taiwan, the
de facto United States Embassy, said at a forum in September this year that
he expected the United States government “at some time and in some way will
express itself on the implications of the 2016 election for U.S. interests.”
前AIT主席卜睿哲(实际上也就是美国大使)，说在9月的一个论坛中便认为美国将在某个时
间点使用某种方式来表达2016选举结果对美国造成的利弊。
But rather than fight an increasingly popular opposition, some analysts say,
the United States should adjust to the prospect of the opposition’s coming
to power.
分析家说，美国不应对渐取得民心的反对党做出任何fight，而是应该思考未来反对党取
得政权之后应当如何因应。
“I think Washington is going to have to come to terms with what it might
mean and prepare for that,” said William Stanton, director of the Center for
Asia Policy at National Tsing Hua University in Hsinchu, Taiwan, and a former
director of the American Institute in Taiwan.
拥有一堆头衔让我懒得翻译的William Stanton说他认为美国会慢慢地知道该发展(指反对
党取得政权)代表着什么意思，并做出对应的措施。
What it might mean, especially with the election still more than a year away,
is subject to debate even within the opposition.
这发展，尤其是1年后的选举，亦将引起反对党之间的争论。
“The ideological spectrum within the D.P.P. is so wide,” said Wu Chung-li,
a political scientist at Academia Sinica, a state-run research institution. “
Some factions are willing to have contact with mainland China. Other
factions, especially some radical ideologists, are not willing to have
contact with the mainland. Actually, it always is the big issue for the
party. No matter who will be the presidential candidate, he or she will have
to face the music to deal with the China factor.”
中研院政治学者吴重礼说民进党的意识型态分布是很广的，有些派系愿意接触中国，有些
派系(尤其是基本教义支持者)则不愿意。事实上，这本来就是民进党内部一个重大的议题
。不管谁当总统候选人，他或她都将面临处理中国关系所带来的挑战。
※ 引述《sigmaaldrich (专卖化学药品)》之铭言：
: 纽时：2016若绿执政 不利两岸
: 中时
: http://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20141228000891-260302
: 《纽约时报》27日报导，国民党在“九合一”大选挫败，引发各方预期民进党在2016年总
: 统大选胜算较大，令人担忧台湾是否会回到之前苦涩的两岸关系中，因为民进党之前执政
: 时因推动公投激怒北京，导致两岸关系有一段时间处于紧张、苦涩。
: 报导引述纽约大学法学院教授孔杰荣分析，“未来两岸紧张关系将持续上升，会让台湾愈
: 来愈受到外界关注，也会影响美国的中国政策及对台政策。”
: 面对外界担忧，民进党祕书长吴钊燮回应说：“不管谁代表民进党参选，情况都不一样，
: 因为他们不是陈水扁。”民进党内新一代领导人都比较慎重，比较了解美中台三角关系，
: 珍惜美台关系，知道中国政策的敏感性。
: 《纽时》还引述北京全国台湾研究会研究员杨立宪的意见认为，“目前看来，2016选情对
: 国民党相当不利，果真如此，将不利两岸关系发展。”
: 报导说，相较之前的武力恫吓，北京乐见两岸经贸交往，让台湾接近大陆，而11月台湾的
: 地方选举很少触及两岸关系议题，但后年的总统及立委选举，统独议题势必成为焦点。
: 报导也引述中研院政研所研究员吴重礼分析，民进党意识形态的光谱很宽广，有人支持与
: 大陆交往，但有人坚持基本教义，不管最后谁代表民进党参选，都必须面对及处理中国因
: 素。