我第一次抽触转蛋抽卡游戏 是战斗女子学园
我是全然无课玩游戏的
当时我就觉得实际抽卡机率不如预期
结果到版上发问只会被信仰者洗脸罢了
自己研究发现
转蛋机率看的不是公告成功率 千万不要被误导了
而是要自己算失败率
例如:
公告机率:10%
1 抽失败率 = (100%-10%) = 90%
5 抽失败率 = (100%-10%)^5 = 59%
10抽失败率 = (100%-10%)^10 = 35%
20抽失败率 = (100%-10%)^20 = 12%
30抽失败率 = (100%-10%)^30 = 4%
由此可知
就算公告机率10%
抽10次还是每3人就有1个人没抽到
抽30次还是每25人就有1个人没抽到
那3%和1%是怎么样
公告机率:3%
1 抽失败率 = (100%-3%) = 97%
10抽失败率 = (100%-3%)^10 = 74%
20抽失败率 = (100%-3%)^20 = 54%
40抽失败率 = (100%-3%)^40 = 30%
60抽失败率 = (100%-3%)^60 = 16%
100抽失败率= (100%-3%)^100 = 5%
公告机率:1%
1 抽失败率 = (100%-1%) = 99%
10抽失败率 = (100%-1%)^10 = 90%
20抽失败率 = (100%-1%)^20 = 82%
40抽失败率 = (100%-1%)^40 = 67%
60抽失败率 = (100%-1%)^60 = 55%
100抽失败率= (100%-1%)^100 = 37%
200抽失败率= (100%-1%)^200 = 13%
300抽失败率= (100%-1%)^300 = 5%
所以转蛋抽卡没保底的话
夜路走多总会遇到鬼 机率还不低
如果自己又很坚持
那真的会觉得转蛋抽卡公司很无良啊