楼主:
haxer (政大加油哥)
2015-06-23 13:01:41这是一篇去年底关注小熊农场专栏作家所写的文章，这几年随着小熊农场越来越肥沃，没
有突出表现的陈品捷受到球团的期待逐渐降低，很难得还能看到特别针对他写了一篇不算
短的文章，在这边翻译分享给各位。
简单来讲，作者认为陈品捷打击普通、速度普通、power不足、守备OK，要立足大联盟有难
度，觉得最多就是个五号外野手。不过他的选球极好，会是他最大的优势。
很多人拿他和今年返台的林哲瑄比较，型态确实有些类似，都是选球好、power不够好，到
高阶会比较辛苦，而且陈的守备和速度都略逊林一筹，比较有优势的地方是左打，以及小
联盟生涯高出将近.020的打击率。
Chicago Cubs Prospects Progress: Pin-Chieh Chen
in Cubs Minor Leagues and Prospects
by Luke Blaize December 22, 2014
http://0rz.tw/bDaiN
The Cubs currently possess a near historic collection of incredibly good
young hitters across the major and minor league levels, and a lot of words
have been written about those guys already. This will not be one of those
articles. Pin-Chieh Chen is not one of the Cubs’ elite prospects. He isn’t
one of their Top Twenty prospects. He probably won’t be one of their Top
Forty prospects (although that remains to be seen). Some, in fact, would
argue that he isn’t a prospect at all.
小熊农场目前十分肥沃，很多文章都特别写一些颇受期待的新秀。这篇文章却不是如此，
要写的是陈品捷。他不是小熊农场中顶尖的球员、也不是队上的前20新秀，甚至也不会是
前40新秀；甚至有人觉得他根本称不上Prospect。
But not me. Fringey? Yes. Unlikely to make the majors? Yes. Probably a career
minor leaguer at best? Yes. Potential 2016 Chicago Cub? Maybe. It is a slim,
faint maybe, but it is a maybe. This edition of Prospects Progress will focus
on that maybe.
但我不这么认为。很有可能上不了大联盟？是的。很有可能一辈子都是个小联盟球员？是
的。2016年升上小熊大联盟？或许，这是个非常小的机会，但只少是个可能，这篇文章会
特别专注描写为什么“可能”。
If you’re new to Prospects Progress, this is an annual offseason series that
focuses on players at all levels of the minors. Each article will take one
prospect … maybe a big name you instantly recognize, and maybe a fringe guy
you haven’t heard of … and will spend some time looking at his numbers, his
risk factors, and how he projects to fit into the Cubs’ future.
如果你对新秀进展这件事情还不太熟悉，这大概就是每年在休赛季时评估每个新秀在各层
级的表现。每篇文章会写一个新秀，或许是个已经家喻户晓的球员，也或许是个你从来没
听过的边缘球员，文章将会从他的数字出发、分析他的风险，以及他未来在球队中的定位
。
In a system that is becoming known for sluggers, Chen simply isn’t. Over
five minor league seasons dating back to 2015 he has a grand total of six
career home runs, and not one of them was hit in 2014. His ISO will blip
above .100 every now and then, but for much of his career he’s been hanging
out around .080. If you are looking for a power bat, you are looking in the
wrong place.
在小熊这个充满长打好手的体系中，陈完全不是其中的一员。在他五个小联盟球季中，仅
仅击出了6支全垒打，而且去年一支都没有。他的ISO有时候会在.100以上，不过他的生涯
这个数字大都在.080左右。如果要期待一支大棒子，陈品捷并不是人选。
He isn’t know for his great speed, either. He put up three seasons with at
least 20 steals in the low minors, including a very nice total of 36 for
Peoria in 2011, but as he has moved into the higher levels of the system
those numbers have fallen off. Between Daytona and Tennessee this past summer
he managed just 13 stolen bases. His seven triples in 2014 indicate that he
is good enough of a base runner to use his speed when the opportunity
presents itself, but this is not the sort of player who is going to make a
living with his legs alone.
他也不是因为速度出名，虽然他在三个球季有20次以上的盗垒成功，包含2011年在低A的
36次，不过盗垒成功的次数也随着层级升高之后减少：2014年在AA和A+他仅缴出13次盗垒
成功的数据。2014年的7支三垒安打显示出他仍具有一定的速度，不过他不会是那种只靠
一双快腿就上大联盟的料。
He also doesn’t hit for average. His career figure, despite spending most of
that time in A ball, is just .270. He hit .275 in 65 games in the Florida
State League to start the year, and in the pitcher friendly FSL that’s
actually not too bad. It isn’t exactly good either, though, and it
definitely isn’t great. His 2014 Double A figure in 48 games was just just
.232 (more on that in a bit).
他的打击水准也不到平均水准：他的生涯尽管都在1A层级，打击率仅有.270。他在2014年
65场在A+缴出.275的成绩，考虑到佛罗里达是个投手联盟，这个成绩其实还不错。不过等
他上了AA，48场比赛中仅缴出.232的打击率。
So why am I writing about a guy without power, speed, or average? Because he’
s a potentially versatile left handed hitting outfielder who doesn’t strike
out and draws a ton of walks. In other words, he is pretty much exactly the
kind of guy the Cubs would not mind having as the fifth outfielder in the
majors right now.
那为什么还要特别提一个没什么长打能力、速度和打击不到平均的选手呢？他是个左打外
野手，可以选到很多保送且不容易被三振，这样的特质正是小熊队会需要的五号外野手。
Before I dive in here, let me again reiterate that the odds are decidedly not
in the favor of Chen. He doesn’t project as a star, or even as a major
league starter. He really doesn’t project as much of a major league player
outside of a bench role, and the role he could fill could also be filled by a
large number of other players in the Cubs system, not to mention a bunch of
free agents or cheap trade targets. This is a story of maybe, not probably.
必须再提一次，这个可能性对陈来说机率仍不高。他不被期待成为一个明星，甚至不被期
待成为一个大联盟先发球员，最多就是个板凳球员，但就算是板凳球员，这个位置也很容
易被其他小熊体系内的球员取代，或是从FA、交易市场以便宜的代价得来。这是个关于“
或许”，而不是“大概会”的描述。
That maybe, that chance that he could reach Wrigley as a fourth of fifth
outfielder, centers around his on base abilities. In 48 games (182 plate
appearances) with Tennessee last season, Chen posted a surprisingly strong
OBP of .343 to go with his average of .232. That large gap between his AVG
and OBP is thanks to a 13.2% walk rate. Throughout his minor league career
his walk rates have consistently been over 10.0% at every level. The fact
that he matched his career high at the highest level he has yet reached is
interesting and suggests strongly that Chen has a good understanding of the
strike zone and a strong ability to recognize pitches.
而这个“或许”，最主要就是他的上垒能力。2014年在AA的48场比赛 (182个PA)，他的上
垒率达.343，打击率则是.232，如此大的差距主因是13.2%的保送率。在小联盟生涯中，
他在每一个层级的保送率都超过10%，而在AA达到最高的比率显示出他在高层级仍能有选
球的能力。
He doesn’t miss many pitches, either. His strikeout rate for the Smokies was
just 8.8%, the lowest he has posted in a league where he has had enough plate
appearances to make a useful sample size. And if you’re thinking that a guy
who can post those peripheral numbers should be able to hit for a better
average than .232, you’re probably right.
他同时也不太会被三振，在AA的三振率是8.8%，同时也是生涯新低。如果你觉得这样的能
力应该可以缴出比打击率.232好的成绩，那你有可能是对的。
Chen’s Double A average of .232 came with a BABIP of .259; that figure is
significantly below the BABIP he has posted at most other levels. Typically
his BABIP sits around .330 or so. Even after we account for the increase in
difficulty that comes with a jump to Double A, I tend to think that .259 is
decidedly on the low side. It isn’t hard to justify projecting bit of a
bounce in BABIP and a corresponding 2015 line that could be closer .260/.350.
去年他在AA的打击率是.232，BABIP是.259，远低于他的生涯平均，他的BABIP通常在.330
左右。就算我们考虑到层级上升后提高的难度，.259仍然是偏低的数字，可以期待他在
2015缴出BAA/OBP .260/.350的数据。
译按：陈品捷本季在AA的BABIP果然上升到.303，BAA/OBP则是.247/.354，都满接近。
Even with a high minors OBP of .350, though, there is really only one
scenario in which a profile like Chen’s would fit as even a fifth outfielder
on a competitive major league team. It comes down to the glove.
就算到高层级缴出.350的上垒率，仍就需要好的守备能力才有一拼第五号外野手的机会。
For a light hitting walks machine to hold a major league bench job, he just
about has to be solid defensively across the outfield. There are signs that
point to Chen fitting that profile, but right now that is unclear.
一个没什么长打能力的上垒机器要抢下大联盟的板凳工作，他的外野守备必须要很好，目
前看起来他的守备却是不错，但仍不是十分明确。
Chen played a lot of center field in the low minors, but over the past two
seasons he has primarily been in the corners – mainly left field in 2013,
and mainly right field in 2014. I don’t think he has moved to the corners
because he is bad at center field, though, so much as that he has been
playing along side some pretty good center fielders. In 2014, for example,
the center fielder he played alongside for most of his time at both levels
was Albert Almora, one of the best defensive outfielders in minor league
baseball. If Almora and pretty much anyone else in the farm system are
playing in the same outfield, Almora will get the majority of the starts in
center. That doesn’t mean the other guy is bad at center, though.
在低层级时，他通常站CF，但是在过去两年都被丢到角落，2013年大多守LF、2014年大多
守RF。我不认为他是因为守备不好才被移到角落，而是和他的同队的CF都是非常棒的CF。
以2014年来说，他和Albert Almora同队，Almora被评为有小联盟中顶尖的防守能力，所
以和Almora同队的其他外野手就必须要移动守备位置，但这并不代表他们的防守就不好。
It does mean we can’t be sure. My only real not-a-scout concern, having
watched Chen in the outfield a few times, is his arm, but the fact that he
spent much of 2014 in right field is an indicator that his arm should be good
enough for center. Whether or not his overall defense is good enough to
profile as a light hitting defensive replacement bench guy in the majors
remains to be seen, but I don’t think we can rule it out.
不过这同时也代表我们不能肯定。现场看过陈的几场比赛，我比较有疑虑的是他的臂力，
不过他在2014年守RF，或许也代表他的臂力是能够应付CF的工作。他能不能成为一个大联
盟替补外野手的机率虽然还不明确，但我不认为现在就能说不行。
Chen should begin 2015 back with the Tennessee Smokies, and in all honesty I
am not sure he goes any higher. I love the strikeout rate. I love the walk
rate. I think the glove could be good enough, although I’m not sure on that.
The problem is just how light of a hitter Chen is. If he busts out with an
ISO in the .140 range in Double A to start the season this may look
different, but short of that I’m not sure there will be enough life in his
bat to beat out all of the other options the Cubs will have for that last
outfield slot. Fifth outfielders are cheaper if developed from within, but
they don’t tend to be terribly expensive if they are signed from without.
预计陈在2015年会回到AA，老实说我也不确定他会不会再往上升。我喜欢他的SO、BB比率
，我认为他的守备也够好，但也不是那么确定。比较大的问题是他的长打能力，如果他开
季能打出.140左右的ISO或许事情就不太一样，但如果低于这个数据，就会有更多潜在竞
争者。虽然五号外野手从自己体系出来比较便宜，但其实就外取材也不会太贵。
译按：真的很可惜，陈品捷开季在AA打击状况不错，留下了生涯新高.144的ISO，后来却因
为清位子给超级新秀Billy McKinney而被放回A+。
That said, he does have a chance. And, personally, while the bigger names and
more elite tools tend to deservedly get most of the time in the spotlight, I
find the stories of those prospects on fringe, prospects like Chen, to be
nearly as interesting. These guys are a integral part of what makes minor
league baseball the awesome experience that it is, and every once in awhile
one of them bucks the odds and takes a place in the spotlight. Could Chen be
one of those surprise breakout guys? Maybe.
总而言之，他仍有机会。同时间天份更高、表现更好的球员更受重视，我认为像陈这种球
员的故事也十分有趣。这种球员让大联盟是个更好的地方，而他们一旦破茧而出也会是很
棒的故事。陈品捷会是这种家伙吗？让我们拭目以待吧！