Summer 2014 Forecast
http://bit.ly/1kaLQrY
by Ray Subers
前言：Box Office Mojo网站的负责人Ray Subers，早在4月就在网站贴文评析今年暑假
档期的重要潜在卖座电影，大体来说，聘请一线名导演+演员的高成本经典续集/重拍，
不但在台湾是卖座灵丹，就连在美国影评本身的看好程度也是明显有优势的，因为在
作者预测的美国卖座前十名中，有高达六部是近年卖座电影的续集，甚至于只有一部是
不翻拍过往经典的原创剧本。
不过，在这样明显由续集主导的票房法则中，从Subers的预测，还是可以看出美国市场
还是有两种片型，是比较不容易在台湾造成比照盛况的
A. 成人导向，即使主角不是俊男美女也没关系的的限制级喜剧
B. 家庭导向的普级奇幻冒险故事，不管是真人还是动画
这篇预测文虽然因为发文时间的缘故，会跟一些已经上映电影的实际状况有一定落差，
但我觉得Subers的发文角度，还是有抓到电影的大方向，整体而言仍然具有参考价值，
所以就在这个端午假期把他看好卖座前十名的分析文，翻译成中文并且发表在版上给
大家分享并作参考
以下就是Ray Subers看好今年美国暑假档的十大卖座电影..
注：电影片名后的第二行是美国上映日期，第三行分别是此片在美国与海外的预测票房
1.驯龙高手2 How to Train Your Dragon 2
June 13
Domestic: $325 million, Foreign: $505 million
The first How to Train Your Dragon earned $217.6 million in early 2010, and
remains one of the most popular animated movies in recent memory (it ranks in
the all-time Top 250 on IMDb).
驯龙高手在2010的春季档上映时，在美国累积了2.176亿美金的票房，而驯龙至今依旧是
近年梦工厂最受欢迎的动画片，因为它已经在IMDB最高评分的250部电影中占有一席之地
。
In a Summer lacking any serious animated competition, it's a foregone
conclusion that How to Train Your Dragon 2 will improve upon its predecessor.
If it follows the same pattern as Despicable Me 2, it will earn $320 million
at the domestic box office.
在今年暑假没有其他重要动画片竞争的优势下，可以确定驯龙2将会开出比上集还要高的
票房。假如跟去年的“神偷奶爸2”拿来对照并推估，驯龙2光是在美国就可以卖出3.2亿
的票房。
2. X战警：未来昔日 X-Men: Days of Future Past
May 23
Domestic: $290 million, Foreign: $470 million
The X-Men franchise is coming off its two lowest-grossing outings at the
domestic box office (X-Men: First Class and The Wolverine). In an effort to
reinvigorate the series, Days of Future Past brings back many members of the
original cast, and matches Wolverine up with the First Class group (some of
whom have seen their star power rise substantially in the past three years).
X战警这个超级英雄品牌已经连续两部电影在美国票房写下新低点(第一战与武士之战)，
为了让这个系列重新缔造颠峰，未来昔日特地找回原先三部曲的重要人气角色，加上
金刚狼与第一战的阵容一起同台演出。事实上，有不少在第一战表现不错的演员，已经
在过去三年来逐步展现他们的明星架势，这对电影的前途当然有一定的加分作用。
Early trailers sold the high-stakes story, while recent material has
positioned it as a fun, exciting team-up movie akin to The Avengers. Adjusted
for inflation, the third X-Men movie earned the equivalent of $285 million;
with the addition of 3D ticket pricing, that's a reasonable expectation for
Days of Future Past.
至于宣传方面，未来昔日最初的预告像是在行销情节充满惊险桥段的故事，但最近片商
已经将电影定调成一部跟“复仇者联盟”一样有趣且刺激的超级英雄合作电影。经过
通货膨胀的币值调整后，X战警同样阵容豪华的“最后战役”，其票房等同于现今的2.
85亿美金，再加上3D版本带来的较高票价，未来昔日能冲到类似的数字应该不是过分的
预测。
3. 变形金刚4：绝迹重生 Transformers: Age of Extinction
June 27
Domestic: $285 million, Foreign: $750 million
The first three Transformers movies all earned over $300 million at the
domestic box office, and the last one reached $1.1 billion worldwide. The
fourth installment subs out Shia LaBeouf for Mark Wahlberg, though that might
not be enough to make up for the fact that the last two movies aren't held in
high esteem (fool me once… etc.).
变形金刚的前三集在美国都有进帐3亿美金，三年前的第三集甚至成为全球票房破十亿
美金的超人气大片。今年绝迹重生的最大变化，就是让观众缘较讨喜的马克华柏格，
取代近年负面新闻偏多的席亚李必夫成为男主角，但这举动未必能让连续两次对变形
金刚失望的人，重新找回对此系列的热情。
A decrease on par with the fourth Pirates of the Caribbean would put Age of
Extinction at $275 million; the movie should mostly make up for this
overseas, where it's sure to be a huge hit.
假如用2011年“神鬼奇航4：幽灵海”的衰退比率推估，绝迹重生的美国票房恐怕会跌
破3亿，但变形4在海外继续热卖并在全球票房榜上称冠应非问题。
(PS：本文作者认为变形金刚4会是今年暑假唯一票房破十亿美金的电影)
4. 猩球崛起：黎明的进击 Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
July 11
Domestic: $240 million, Foreign: $460 million
In 2011, Rise of the Planet of the Apes became a surprise late-Summer hit
with $176.8 million. The sequel brings back Andy Serkis as Caesar, and takes
the story in an exciting new direction (apes vs. humans in a post-apocalyptic
wasteland).
2011暑假后段才上映的“猩球崛起”，有点意外地在当年开出比想像中更好的票房，如今
续集不仅把巧妙饰演猩王凯萨的安迪赛奇斯带回来重做冯妇，制作剧组也把故事带到更
吸引人的新方向(猩族与人类在世界末日后的废弃地近乎战争的对立)。
With goodwill from the first installment and a strong mid-July release date,
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes should top its predecessor's domestic gross.
Thanks to the addition of 3D, look for big gains overseas as well.
在猩球崛起的好口碑，与更能吸金的七月中档期两项利多加持下，“黎明的进击”的票房
应该可以轻松超越上集。而3D版本的加持，更能让猩2在海外有进一步的斩获。
5. 哥吉拉 Godzilla
May 16
Domestic: $230 million, Foreign: $440 million
The bad taste from 1998's Godzilla movie has been washed away by strong
trailers that show off the human impact of large-scale destruction while only
providing brief glimpses of the monster. This calls to mind the marketing
strategy for last year's World War Z, which kept its zombies obscured for the
most part.
1998年同样英文片名但口碑不如预期的“酷斯拉”对观众造成的阴影，应该已经被新版
强势的预告影片彻底洗掉了，因为这些影片巧妙展现了大规模破坏对人类造成的冲击，
却只让怪兽本身短暂地惊鸿一瞥。这多少让人想起去年同样有灾难片元素的“末日之战
”，刻意让僵尸在预告大部分时间影像模糊的异曲同工保密宣传手法。
While Godzilla doesn't have Brad Pitt, the giant lizard should make up for
that. Adjusting for inflation, the 1998 movie earned around $230 million,
which is a fair target for this movie. Also, look for huge international
returns.
哥吉拉尽管没有布莱德彼特这样喊水会结冻的巨星，但光是这只巨兽本身，就可以弥补
这个小弱点。如果用通货膨胀来换算，酷斯拉在1998的美国票房可以换算成2.3亿美金，
对于新版本算是合理的目标。当然，哥吉拉的海外票房不难想像应该会很可观。
6. 蜘蛛人惊奇再起：电光之战 The Amazing Spider-Man 2
May 2
Domestic: $225 million. Foreign: $480 million
Five years after the Sam Raimi/Tobey Maguire Spider-Man franchise ended, Sony
rebooted the popular superhero in 2012's The Amazing Spider-Man. The movie
was the lowest-grossing entry yet at the domestic box office ($262 million),
but was still a strong player worldwide.
在导演山姆雷米与陶比麦奎尔相继结束他们的蜘蛛人生涯后，索尼终于在2012年以“
蜘蛛人惊奇再起”的名义，让全新阵容将这位人气英雄回归影坛。然而，惊奇再起却
创下蜘蛛人系列首次在美国无法突破三亿的残念记录，不过整体而言惊奇再起的全球
票房仍算是一次成功。
Less than two years later, The Amazing Spider-Man 2 has the webcrawler facing
an assortment of villains including Electro and the Green Goblin in what's
billed as his "greatest battle" yet. It also returns Spidey to the prime
first weekend of May, which is where the franchise set opening weekend box
office records twice (in 2002 and 2007).
不到两年后，安德鲁加非尔德饰演的新版蜘蛛人又要用他的蜘蛛手对抗全新品种的反派，
像是怀才不遇的电光人与个性中二的绿恶魔，片商甚至用“蜘蛛人史上最伟大的战役”来
形容电光之战。此外，蜘蛛人也回归了五月第一周的黄金档期，因为这正是让蜘蛛人分别
在2002与2007二度缔造美国票房首映记录的幸运时刻。
Still, as the fifth movie in 12 years, it can't help but feel a bit redundant.
With franchise fatigue in full effect, another decrease in domestic box office
is likely.
然而，12年来5部蜘蛛人电影，不可避免会对观众造成被喂食太多的反胃感，这样的疲乏
效应恐怕会让蜘蛛人在美国的票房再创新低。
7. 星际异攻队 Guardians of the Galaxy
August 1
Domestic: $180 million, Foreign: $250 million
This is the first original Marvel Cinematic Universe movie since Captain
America: The First Avenger in 2011, and is probably the riskiest of any of
the MCU movies so far. The eclectic band of characters has no cultural cache
yet, and there's no clear tie-in with the rest of the universe. The
attention-grabbing first trailer directly addressed this issue by spending
an inordinate amount of time introducing each member, including a gun-toting
raccoon and a human man who goes by Star Lord (played by Chris Pratt).
星际异攻队(简称GOG)是漫威制片部继2011年的美国队长后，第一部非续集/延伸外传的
角色起源电影，却也有可能是漫威自制电影中风险最高的。因为这群风格不一致的主角
群不但还无法让多数观众建立起文化上的记忆，跟漫威的其他电影更是没有明确的连结
。这问题导致本片的第一只预告片即使吸引力够强，也花了比常理上还要长的时间介绍
组织的每个成员，如男星布莱德利库柏配音的带枪浣熊，以及一名后来变成此漫画经典
角色“星爵”的卷发男(此角由女谐星安娜费莉丝老公克里斯普莱特饰演)
There's a possibility that Guardians winds up being this Summer's Pacific Rim
—the online hype outweighing general interest—though we're betting it winds
up on par with the original Thor
GOG可能会有类似去年环太平洋的经历，也就是网络声势爆高但一般观众反应平平的尴尬
局面。不过，作者预测GOG最终的成绩还是可以与“雷神索尔”第一集平起平坐。
8.黑魔女：沈睡魔咒 Maleficent
May 30
Domestic: $150 million, Foreign: $300 million
Based on Disney's animated classic Sleeping Beauty, Maleficent is the latest
live-action fantasy from the studio that found success with similar movies
Alice in Wonderland and (to a lesser extent) Oz The Great and Powerful. A
better comparison here may be 2012 fantasy Snow White and the Huntsman,
which opened on the same weekend and also focused its marketing on an iconic
villain (in this case, its Angelina Jolie's Maleficent).
根据经典自家动画“睡美人”改编的黑魔女，是迪士尼继“魔境梦游”与“奥兹大帝”
获得成功后，又一次把经典奇幻童话改拍成大卡司真人版(尽管奥兹的热门程度明显没
有魔境高)。不过，黑魔女最好的比较范本，应该是此片制作人Joe Roth前年与环球合
作的“公主与狩猎者”，不仅是因为两片的上映档期相近(五月底靠近六月初)，也跟
这两部片在宣传时更把焦点着重在反派上有关(公片莎莉赛隆饰演的皇后 VS 安洁莉娜
裘莉这次饰演的黑魔女)。
That movie earned $155.3 million at the domestic box office; with a family-
friendly "PG" rating, Maleficent has a good chance of matching that.
公主与狩猎者最后在美国进帐了1.553亿的票房，而黑魔女这次有了对家庭族群更友善的
PG分级，要配上制片前作成绩的机会不低。
9. 恶邻缠身 Neighbors
May 9
Domestic: $140 million, Foreign: $65 million
Seth Rogen is coming off one of his biggest hits yet in This is the End, and
that well-received comedy has been highlighted in Neighbors marketing. More
importantly, though, Neighbors has a great comedic set-up that's front-and-
center in all of Universal's advertising ("Family Vs. Frat").
赛斯罗根去年自导自编自演的大卡司自我恶搞喜剧“大明星世界末日”，不但让他生涯
又多了一部全美票房破亿电影，也让他的新作“恶邻缠身”增加了行销上的利多。更
重要的是：恶邻缠身电影本身即拥有良好的故事设定“成年家长与大学兄弟会的对立
关系”，让环球影业有了明确的行销的重点。
It's also well-positioned as the first R-rated comedy in a Summer that's full
of them. Finally, positive early reviews suggest the kind of word-of-mouth
that can take a comedy hit to the next level.
“恶”片成为暑假档众多限制级喜剧中第一部上映的，也是电影行情的一大优势。最后，
“恶”片在正式上映前颇为正面的试映结果，也暗示电影本身可以靠着坚强的口碑效应，
缔造新的喜剧片票房里程碑。
10. 龙虎少年队2 22 Jump Street
June 13
Domestic: $135 million, Foreign: $75 million
Like any other kind of sequel, comedy follow-ups are a mixed bag: for every
Meet the Fockers (+68%), there's a Sex and the City 2 (-38%). 22 Jump Street
will likely wind up somewhere in the middle. The first movie is well-liked,
and previews have enough strong gags to suggest that this one delivers as
well.
喜剧片的续集跟其他系列电影一样票房有好有坏，既有2004年“门当父不对之亲家路窄”
比上集多出68%的案例，也有2010“欲望城市2”下跌近四成的狗尾续貂。而校园喜剧龙虎
少年队的续集看来应该会介于两者之间。龙虎1在影评与影迷之间都相当受欢迎，而预告
片表现出的笑梗集锦也是一个好兆头。
Unfortunately, it also opens in the more-competitive Summer season, and comes
on the heels of three original May comedies that should all do solid business
. Ultimately, expect 22 Jump Street to wind up in the same range as the
original.
但不幸的是，龙虎2的档期刚好摆在更为竞争的暑假档，而且比他先上映的三部喜剧应该
也会开出不差的票房，并反过来压缩到龙虎2。尽管形势比第一集还要严峻，但龙虎2的
票房应该还是可以跟上集一样维持相同水平。
译按：原文指出的三部喜剧，应该是指赛斯罗根的“恶邻缠身”、亚当山德勒的“当我们
混在一起”与赛斯麦克法蓝的“百万种硬的方式”，但除了恶邻缠身外的其他两部喜剧，
由于口碑欠佳几乎确定在美国无法破亿。