这几年每年诺贝尔讲颁奖前都会吵的话题，就是村上获得诺贝尔文学奖的可能性。
这篇的新意是用运彩网站Ladbrokes的投注比来分析......
目前村上是这个网站的领跑者，赔率是3/1，领先第二名的Joyce Carol Oates 6/1
Odds Are Haruki Murakami Will Win the Literature Nobel Next Month
Every October, the Nobel Prize for Literature is awarded — and every
September, speculation over who will win that prize begins. Traditionally,
the guessing game starts with British betting site Ladbrokes releasing its
odds, which are then endlessly debated until the secretive Swedes make their
announcement.
The odds for this year's Nobel have been released, and Japanese novelist
Haruki Murakami is the frontrunner (3-1), with prolific American writer Joyce
Carol Oates trailing behind (6-1), followed by Hungarian novelist Peter
Nadas. However, as The Guardian explains, Murakami — however deserving of
such commendation he is — need not start writing his Nobel lecture just yet:
Ladbrokes is running with Murakami, but the firm has got it wrong before. In
2011, a run of bets prompted it to slash odds on Bob Dylan from 100-1 to 10-1
24 hours preceding the announcement of the winner. That year, Adonis was a
6-1 favourite, followed by Murakami (8-1) and the eventual winner, [Swedish
poet Tomas] Tranströmer (10-1).
Murakami is the author of highly acclaimed novels like The Wind-Up Bird
Chronicle and Kafka on the Shore. His latest, Colourless Tsukuru Tazaki and
His Years of Pilgrimage, has not yet been translated into English, but is
selling extremely well in Japan.
Should Murakami win the Nobel, the American drought will have lasted two
decades, the last U.S. writer to win the prize being Toni Morrison in 1993.
And allegations that the Swedish Academy harbors a bias against American
literature will surely resurface.
The Ladbrokes list does include the likes of Don DeLillo, Thomas Pynchon and
Philip Roth, though none of these writers fits into the Swedish Academy's
rubric of writing that is, on the whole, obscure and political.
Last year's recipient, Mo Yan, was widely criticized for his silence about
the abuses perpetrated by the Communist Party in his native China.
A woman has not won the Nobel for literature since Herta Müller in 2009.
http://ppt.cc/GmSS
http://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/Awards/Nobel-Literature-PrizeAwards/Nobel-Literature-Prize-t210003519