最著名的Apple分析师之一，Gene Munster
最近他的公司Loup Ventures发表了一份报告，里面写着Model 3可以改变世界
Munster在这份报告中选择了一款很令人惊讶的车来对比
不是Chevy Bolt，而是Toyota Camry
Toyota Camry在长达14年的时间里，都是美国最畅销的汽车
单看成本，Camry比Model 3便宜约42%
但若从车价、保险、燃料费、保养等各方面来看，5年持有成本价差约只有13%
http://i.imgur.com/8xCCBJq.png
Munster总结说，拥有一辆Model 3比起拥有一辆Toyota Camry五年只贵了约13%
这是不是意味着Tesla可以在大众市场获得成功？
根据研究工作显示，Model 3可以将Tesla的潜在市场扩展到仅在北美就有每年1100万辆
若是Model 3可以在2025年前占据这个潜在市场的25%
那么每年将会替Tesla带来约1050亿美元的收入
而在客户体验上与品牌忠诚度方面，消费者报告所做的调查也显示Tesla胜出
有91%的车主表示他们绝对会再次购买Tesla的汽车
最接近的品牌是第二名Porsche的84%
http://i.imgur.com/okazTaC.jpg
而随着Tesla车辆的上市，越来越多人意识到拥有一辆Tesla的好处
这种"看到就想要"类似病毒传染般的现象
可能会加速Model 3的需求上升
加上自动驾驶技术的发展，极可能会使人们忽略掉那五年持有成本13%的差异
Munster预测，Model 3这种价值与技术的结合有可能改变世界
加速电动车与自动驾驶车的发展
另外他也把Apple跟Tesla做了一个类比
Apple曾经被视为一个奢侈品牌但现在却享有在主流市场上巨大的成功
iPhone是将Apple推向主流大众的一个手段
Munster也预测，未来我们最终会回顾Model 3的推出，并将其与iPhone比较
iPhone已经被证明是大众转向使用行动计算装置的催化剂
回顾2007年，iPhone年产50万部，但到了2015年，Apple卖了2.32亿部iPhone...
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这种计算持有成本的方式很有趣，在汽车租赁盛行的美国可能也更流行
再加上有多份研究报告显示大约在2025年电动车平均成本就会低于燃油车
想像一下，若是购车时电动车比燃油车便宜、后续保养、燃料费等也更便宜
那只要家里充电不是问题，那大部分人都会选择比较便宜的那一方才是
加上现在外面的充电站点也越来越多、充电速度越来越快
燃油车原有的优势正在快速消失当中
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来源：
https://goo.gl/cHGNWM
UNIVERSAL APPEAL: COULD TESLA MODEL 3 BE AS BIG A MASS MARKET HIT AS THE
TOYOTA CAMRY?
Posted on July 08, 2017 by Matt Pressman
We recently profiled Gene Munster, one of the most revered Wall Street
analysts that covers Apple. Munster has a five star rating and ranks a
stellar 21 out of 4,592 analysts on Tip Ranks (99.5th percentile). He's
been showing up on the financial networks discussing his outlook for
another tech innovator, Tesla. His company, Loup Ventures*, argues that
the "Model 3 could change the world" in their most recent research
report. Munster chose a surprising car to stack up against the Model 3.
No, not the Chevy Bolt — the Toyota Camry.
For 14 years running, Toyota Camry has been America's best-selling car.
That said, Loup Ventures compared the Model 3's total cost of ownership
with "the Toyota Camry because it’s a good example of an affordable
quality car sold in the U.S. At first glance, Camry is in a different
segment than the Model 3, given that a Camry costs an average of 42% less
than an average Model 3 and Camry is an ICE (internal combustion engine).
However, looking at total cost of ownership, the price gap closes based
on savings from fuel, insurance maintenance, and repairs, ultimately
yielding a 13% price difference over 5 years."
The Model 3's lower cost of ownership could allow Tesla to tap into a
bigger market than ever before. Munster concludes, "Owning a Model 3 is
only 13% more expensive than owning a Toyota Camry over a 5 year
period.... [so] based on our cost of ownership work, we believe the Model
3 expands Tesla’s addressable market to about 11m vehicles per year in
North America alone." Could this mean mass market success for Tesla? "If
Tesla captures 25% of this 11 million vehicle addressable market by 2025,
Tesla would generate $105 billion in annual revenue from the Model 3."
With a smaller-than-expected price difference, which car is the better
value? "Tesla wins over a Camry when it comes to customer experience, due
to its acceleration, Autopilot, elimination of gas station stops, and the
high-quality entertainment system. There is evidence of this in a
Consumer Reports survey, where 91% of Tesla owners state they would
'definitely' buy their cars again, the highest rating of any automaker.
The next two closest automakers were Porsche at 84% and Audi at 77%."
Meanwhile, Toyota came in fifth place with 76%.
And don't forget the viral nature of Tesla ownership: "As more Teslas
find their way onto the road, the general public will become increasingly
aware of the benefits of Tesla ownership and likely view the 13% total
cost of ownership difference as insignificant. We expect this 'see it and
want it' phenomenon to cause an acceleration in Model 3 demand." This, in
turn, could open up the coveted Tesla brand to the masses. Munster
predicts, "the Model 3's value, in combination with its technology, has
the potential to change the world and accelerate the adoption of electric
and autonomous vehicles."
As Tesla's Autopilot is perfected, Big Auto will be left behind:
"Detroit, Japan, and German car manufacturer feature shortfalls will
compound around the end of 2020 when Tesla adds autonomy to approximately
2 million Teslas on the road virtually overnight... Note that every Tesla
sold today has the hardware for full autonomy. When Tesla turns on full
autonomy, we believe the market will tip away from traditional autos to
Tesla." A trip down memory lane might be in order — perhaps Apple vs.
Nokia could soon resemble Tesla vs. Toyota.
As before, Munster draws a corollary between Apple and Tesla. Apple, once
seen as a niche pricey brand, now enjoys massive mainstream success. The
iPhone was what pushed Apple out to a universal audience. And Munster
forecasts, "we will eventually look back at the launch of the Model 3 and
compare it to the iPhone, which proved to be the catalyst for the shift
to mobile computing... Looking back at the iPhone in 2007 it was a
stretch to envision the company producing 50m phones a year, but in 2015,
the company sold 232m units."