BMW M部门副总裁Peter Quintus说，再过几年，自手排DCT和手排变速箱将被淘汰，
从M车消失，传统自排最后将会胜出。
前几天，他在接受澳洲汽车杂志Drive访问时作出以上表示。
Quintus预期“手排”M车未来只剩6~7年可活，他也相信DCT自手排M车很快就会改用传统
自排变速箱。
☆☆BMW M车的DCT自手排和手排变速箱终将被淘汰，本文PTT图文版☆☆
https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/car/M.1492858659.A.6A8.html
(图) BMW M4 Competition Sport的DCT自手排排档照片，444hp，0~96kph加速 4.0秒。
http://i.imgur.com/9tICM7n.jpg
(图) 1973年BMW 2002手排, 2011年BMW 1M Coupe手排与2016 BMW M2 DCT三台小跑车
https://i.imgtc.com/l0cjwJ3QxY.jpg
M's vice-president of sales and marketing, Peter Quintus, has given both the
conventional manual and the double-clutch transmission just a handful of years
to live.
Having already predicted the end of manual transmissions in the next six or
seven years, Quintus confirmed that he believed we would all soon be making a
return to the torque converter automatic.
◇DCT自手排优势不再
Quintus说，“重点是DCT自手排还能延续多少年？”
“DCT自手排的两大优点是重量轻、换档速度快。”
“但我们也看到现在新型的9速和10速自排变速箱有导入很多新科技，
现在自排变速箱越来越棒，越来越聪明，DCT自手排的换档优势大都已经消逝不见了。”
(图) BMW M2 DCT排档座照片，
一位前WRC车手曾说他开M2手排的换档速度会比DCT慢0.1秒
https://i.imgtc.com/dtiA1yh.jpg
(图) BMW 1M coupe 手排排档座特写
https://i.imgtc.com/3FjOOvV.jpg
"It's more a question of how long has the DCT got to go," he said.
"How long will it last?"
"The DCT once had two advantages: it was light and its shift speeds were
higher.
"We are now seeing automatic transmissions with nine and even 10 speeds,
so there's a lot of technology in modern automatics," he said.
"Now, a lot of that shift-time advantage has disappeared as automatics get
better and smarter."
◇手排的强度耐用度已达先天极限
至于手排的问题则是在于强度无法承受新世代引擎的超大扭力。
Quintus说手排耐用度的极限大约在450匹 以及61.2公斤米左右，再往上就会有耐用度
的疑虑。
Drive杂志记者问说，那怎么不考虑美国那些很强壮，专门给V8大排气量巨兽的手排变速
箱？
Quintus说美国那些强壮手排变速箱重量很重，而且换档品质不佳到很可怕的地步。
Quintus说，他甚至不确定下一代M3/M4是否还会有手排款。
(图) 1984 BMW E24 M635CSi 是史上第二款M车，3.5L直六自然进气 286bhp
标配5速手排，0~100kph加速6.4秒
https://i.imgtc.com/3x2QifC.jpg
(图) E39 M5 (1999~2003)，4.9L V8 400PS，
唯一标配6速手排，0~96kph 4.8秒
https://i.imgtc.com/32O4o4QGH7.jpg
(图) E39 M5车尾
https://i.imgtc.com/f3bmuCG.jpg
(图) E46 M3车侧 338hp，手排加速5.1秒 (2000~2006)
https://i.imgtc.com/3bKUJ9VxbZ.jpg
it's a case of being able to make a manual gearbox strong enough for the
super-torquey new generation of engines. He said about 450 horsepower (335kW)
and 600Nm was more or less the limit of manual-gearbox durability.
Beyond that, he said, durability couldn't be guaranteed.
So why not just shop somewhere like the USA for a manual transmission that
can cope with the output of big, burly V8 engines?
"We looked at US gearboxes. We found they were heavy and the shift quality
was awful," he said.
"I'm not even sure the next generation of M3 and M4 models from BMW will
have the option of a manual gearbox.
==心得==
传统自排的性能日益强大，DCT自手排和传统手排的M车会逐渐灭绝，
BMW未来将全部改用传统自排变速箱，想买DCT M车还剩下几年时间。
下一代新M5已经改用ZF 8速自排变速箱，不再使用DCT自手排了。
下一代M3/M4如果马力和扭力太大的话，搞不好也会改成8速自排，希望不会那么快发生
延伸阅读
[情报] 下一代BMW M5原厂规格曝光 4.4T V8 600匹 四驱 8速自排变速箱 (图)
https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/car/M.1489138558.A.8AF.html
出处
[Drive] BMW M-Division: Dual-clutch gearbox dead on water
And the days looked numbered for manual transmission too.
https://is.gd/PuijpL