关于有没有保底这回事，谁也拿不出证据。
争论没有意义，不如做点实验，
大家用自己喜欢的观点看待都市传说就好。
用python跑点简单的实验 观察数字分布
没有保底，81取2，每张机率均等抽10000张
python code
http://survivor.ntu.edu.tw/maybaodi.py
黑妍数量: 248
10000抽之中中黑妍的编号
[9, 11, 59, 126, 141, 153, 220, 222, 233, 248, 250, 448, 467, 483, 487, 512,
541, 563, 602, 615, 668, 671, 724, 727, 753, 801, 857, 920, 1005, 1009, 1083,
1220, 1250, 1294, 1310, 1321, 1460, 1498, 1518, 1551, 1667, 1697, 1721, 1735,
1764, 1810, 1842, 1845, 1884, 1969, 1989, 2030, 2032, 2056, 2061, 2074, 2131,
2146, 2224, 2289, 2339, 2361, 2367, 2387, 2482, 2565, 2588, 2644, 2645, 2650,
2657, 2679, 2698, 2720, 2772, 2776, 2781, 2782, 2950, 2956, 2994, 3028, 3031,
3046, 3100, 3159, 3239, 3265, 3308, 3318, 3477, 3492, 3495, 3575, 3579, 3623,
3682, 3884, 3950, 3955, 3992, 4041, 4092, 4101, 4102, 4167, 4235, 4267, 4269,
4276, 4295, 4311, 4313, 4413, 4490, 4502, 4554, 4669, 4735, 4751, 4773, 4803,
4908, 4971, 5058, 5065, 5127, 5159, 5169, 5249, 5250, 5269, 5276, 5308, 5319,
5343, 5426, 5457, 5519, 5558, 5561, 5563, 5585, 5651, 5653, 5753, 5878, 5914,
5935, 5939, 5941, 6077, 6117, 6168, 6192, 6194, 6256, 6298, 6315, 6364, 6387,
6502, 6547, 6564, 6576, 6584, 6631, 6671, 6702, 6726, 6738, 6816, 6874, 6892,
6982, 7006, 7136, 7166, 7168, 7182, 7240, 7249, 7263, 7304, 7338, 7547, 7614,
7639, 7659, 7661, 7749, 7754, 7792, 7806, 7842, 7872, 7910, 7924, 7980, 8080,
8086, 8088, 8248, 8266, 8298, 8332, 8340, 8360, 8452, 8466, 8539, 8575, 8629,
8663, 8699, 8708, 8758, 8781, 8855, 8892, 8938, 9086, 9119, 9168, 9178, 9283,
9287, 9303, 9324, 9480, 9494, 9514, 9547, 9569, 9582, 9624, 9626, 9695, 9707,
9716, 9751, 9816, 9838, 9851, 9894, 9938, 9940, 9967]
两次抽到黑妍之间的张数
[2, 48, 67, 15, 12, 67, 2, 11, 15, 2, 198, 19, 16, 4, 25, 29, 22, 39, 13, 53,
3, 53, 3, 26, 48, 56, 63, 85, 4, 74, 137, 30, 44, 16, 11, 139, 38, 20, 33,
116, 30, 24, 14, 29, 46, 32, 3, 39, 85, 20, 41, 2, 24, 5, 13, 57, 15, 78, 65,
50, 22, 6, 20, 95, 83, 23, 56, 1, 5, 7, 22, 19, 22, 52, 4, 5, 1, 168, 6, 38,
34, 3, 15, 54, 59, 80, 26, 43, 10, 159, 15, 3, 80, 4, 44, 59, 202, 66, 5, 37,
49, 51, 9, 1, 65, 68, 32, 2, 7, 19, 16, 2, 100, 77, 12, 52, 115, 66, 16, 22,
30, 105, 63, 87, 7, 62, 32, 10, 80, 1, 19, 7, 32, 11, 24, 83, 31, 62, 39, 3,
2, 22, 66, 2, 100, 125, 36, 21, 4, 2, 136, 40, 51, 24, 2, 62, 42, 17, 49, 23,
115, 45, 17, 12, 8, 47, 40, 31, 24, 12, 78, 58, 18, 90, 24, 130, 30, 2, 14,
58, 9, 14, 41, 34, 209, 67, 25, 20, 2, 88, 5, 38, 14, 36, 30, 38, 14, 56,
100, 6, 2, 160, 18, 32, 34, 8, 20, 92, 14, 73, 36, 54, 34, 36, 9, 50, 23, 74,
37, 46, 148, 33, 49, 10, 105, 4, 16, 21, 156, 14, 20, 33, 22, 13, 42, 2, 69,
12, 9, 35, 65, 22, 13, 43, 44, 2, 27]
有保底
保底机制:
(1)先随便抽，机率均等，并记录累积未中数量
(2)当累积未中数量达到30 黑妍机率变45%
31 50%
32 55%
...
39 90%
大于等于40 95%
(3)无论于均等机率或是提升机率时抽中黑妍，累积未中数量重置
一样抽10000张
python code
http://survivor.ntu.edu.tw/yobaodi.py
黑妍数量: 455
10000抽之中中黑妍的编号
[13, 17, 48, 79, 110, 119, 125, 156, 188, 193, 200, 226, 257, 288, 319, 323,
354, 363, 386, 417, 448, 474, 486, 498, 529, 559, 590, 621, 652, 683, 711,
742, 772, 795, 827, 844, 875, 888, 895, 900, 931, 948, 979, 1005, 1036, 1067,
1098, 1129, 1130, 1132, 1163, 1168, 1197, 1200, 1205, 1236, 1249, 1256, 1286,
1318, 1349, 1365, 1386, 1417, 1418, 1424, 1440, 1456, 1470, 1501, 1512, 1525,
1553, 1584, 1602, 1616, 1647, 1659, 1679, 1710, 1719, 1750, 1752, 1783, 1803,
1828, 1834, 1849, 1880, 1911, 1927, 1958, 1990, 2022, 2053, 2085, 2104, 2115,
2116, 2118, 2146, 2177, 2208, 2239, 2270, 2301, 2318, 2349, 2380, 2411, 2415,
2422, 2429, 2435, 2466, 2487, 2499, 2529, 2543, 2549, 2554, 2557, 2582, 2613,
2644, 2675, 2686, 2717, 2733, 2764, 2795, 2826, 2857, 2880, 2912, 2913, 2944,
2975, 3006, 3037, 3040, 3050, 3061, 3093, 3122, 3127, 3159, 3176, 3208, 3239,
3243, 3274, 3304, 3335, 3366, 3381, 3408, 3409, 3413, 3436, 3454, 3485, 3510,
3541, 3554, 3583, 3614, 3645, 3676, 3703, 3728, 3759, 3790, 3822, 3828, 3859,
3861, 3874, 3905, 3936, 3951, 3968, 3999, 4008, 4024, 4055, 4056, 4088, 4119,
4150, 4172, 4203, 4234, 4235, 4252, 4283, 4314, 4345, 4346, 4366, 4397, 4428,
4432, 4463, 4478, 4509, 4526, 4551, 4575, 4598, 4607, 4628, 4650, 4681, 4712,
4725, 4747, 4778, 4809, 4840, 4871, 4897, 4928, 4930, 4961, 4992, 5023, 5048,
5071, 5077, 5108, 5112, 5120, 5128, 5159, 5178, 5209, 5241, 5242, 5273, 5277,
5278, 5304, 5336, 5347, 5378, 5400, 5431, 5462, 5493, 5524, 5555, 5587, 5601,
5632, 5663, 5694, 5725, 5736, 5749, 5780, 5799, 5819, 5830, 5861, 5864, 5878,
5909, 5928, 5954, 5985, 5991, 6014, 6039, 6070, 6075, 6079, 6110, 6129, 6160,
6191, 6204, 6217, 6248, 6267, 6294, 6325, 6340, 6364, 6377, 6400, 6431, 6462,
6473, 6504, 6507, 6523, 6554, 6574, 6605, 6606, 6637, 6668, 6678, 6709, 6740,
6750, 6753, 6755, 6786, 6817, 6828, 6839, 6870, 6901, 6932, 6963, 6964, 6991,
7022, 7053, 7084, 7096, 7120, 7151, 7182, 7194, 7211, 7220, 7239, 7270, 7298,
7329, 7360, 7391, 7422, 7453, 7465, 7493, 7521, 7552, 7563, 7568, 7599, 7610,
7641, 7663, 7693, 7724, 7755, 7780, 7811, 7842, 7873, 7904, 7921, 7953, 7984,
8010, 8034, 8044, 8049, 8080, 8111, 8116, 8117, 8120, 8151, 8153, 8184, 8215,
8216, 8223, 8254, 8271, 8302, 8303, 8314, 8343, 8374, 8405, 8436, 8468, 8491,
8522, 8544, 8575, 8579, 8593, 8625, 8634, 8650, 8661, 8662, 8693, 8724, 8751,
8774, 8805, 8825, 8856, 8874, 8899, 8905, 8936, 8947, 8960, 8963, 8980, 8989,
9020, 9051, 9082, 9113, 9134, 9136, 9169, 9176, 9197, 9228, 9234, 9260, 9291,
9322, 9353, 9357, 9358, 9389, 9420, 9421, 9439, 9470, 9501, 9532, 9558, 9589,
9616, 9641, 9644, 9676, 9707, 9739, 9770, 9801, 9832, 9851, 9852, 9883, 9895,
9898, 9929, 9950, 9956, 9961, 9992]
两次抽到黑妍之间的张数
[4, 31, 31, 31, 9, 6, 31, 32, 5, 7, 26, 31, 31, 31, 4, 31, 9, 23, 31, 31, 26,
12, 12, 31, 30, 31, 31, 31, 31, 28, 31, 30, 23, 32, 17, 31, 13, 7, 5, 31, 17,
31, 26, 31, 31, 31, 31, 1, 2, 31, 5, 29, 3, 5, 31, 13, 7, 30, 32, 31, 16, 21,
31, 1, 6, 16, 16, 14, 31, 11, 13, 28, 31, 18, 14, 31, 12, 20, 31, 9, 31, 2,
31, 20, 25, 6, 15, 31, 31, 16, 31, 32, 32, 31, 32, 19, 11, 1, 2, 28, 31, 31,
31, 31, 31, 17, 31, 31, 31, 4, 7, 7, 6, 31, 21, 12, 30, 14, 6, 5, 3, 25, 31,
31, 31, 11, 31, 16, 31, 31, 31, 31, 23, 32, 1, 31, 31, 31, 31, 3, 10, 11, 32,
29, 5, 32, 17, 32, 31, 4, 31, 30, 31, 31, 15, 27, 1, 4, 23, 18, 31, 25, 31,
13, 29, 31, 31, 31, 27, 25, 31, 31, 32, 6, 31, 2, 13, 31, 31, 15, 17, 31, 9,
16, 31, 1, 32, 31, 31, 22, 31, 31, 1, 17, 31, 31, 31, 1, 20, 31, 31, 4, 31,
15, 31, 17, 25, 24, 23, 9, 21, 22, 31, 31, 13, 22, 31, 31, 31, 31, 26, 31, 2,
31, 31, 31, 25, 23, 6, 31, 4, 8, 8, 31, 19, 31, 32, 1, 31, 4, 1, 26, 32, 11,
31, 22, 31, 31, 31, 31, 31, 32, 14, 31, 31, 31, 31, 11, 13, 31, 19, 20, 11,
31, 3, 14, 31, 19, 26, 31, 6, 23, 25, 31, 5, 4, 31, 19, 31, 31, 13, 13, 31,
19, 27, 31, 15, 24, 13, 23, 31, 31, 11, 31, 3, 16, 31, 20, 31, 1, 31, 31, 10,
31, 31, 10, 3, 2, 31, 31, 11, 11, 31, 31, 31, 31, 1, 27, 31, 31, 31, 12, 24,
31, 31, 12, 17, 9, 19, 31, 28, 31, 31, 31, 31, 31, 12, 28, 28, 31, 11, 5, 31,
11, 31, 22, 30, 31, 31, 25, 31, 31, 31, 31, 17, 32, 31, 26, 24, 10, 5, 31,
31, 5, 1, 3, 31, 2, 31, 31, 1, 7, 31, 17, 31, 1, 11, 29, 31, 31, 31, 32, 23,
31, 22, 31, 4, 14, 32, 9, 16, 11, 1, 31, 31, 27, 23, 31, 20, 31, 18, 25, 6,
31, 11, 13, 3, 17, 9, 31, 31, 31, 31, 21, 2, 33, 7, 21, 31, 6, 26, 31, 31,
31, 4, 1, 31, 31, 1, 18, 31, 31, 31, 26, 31, 27, 25, 3, 32, 31, 32, 31, 31,
31, 19, 1, 31, 12, 3, 31, 21, 6, 5, 31]
当然万一有保底，大家也不知道MH设定的机制，
所以小弟姑且随意提供一种。
大家可以随意改改机制或多跑几次实验，
看看能不能逼近MH的玩法XD

满满的都是数字眼睛都花了

请...请给我懒人包 好花

快推，不然会被说看不懂，其实我真的看不懂

先给箭头

第五行的叙述有点问题, 即使是假设没有保底, 但目前的样本资料看来, 新妍希卡的机率并不是81取2, 是更高的3.x%

光给数据很难看出结论 至少用个图表统计

快推，不然人家会知道我们看不懂！！

看不懂 懒人包呢?

我推！

看"两次抽到黑妍之间的张数" 前提没保底很明显跟统计的数据差很多 因此结论是有保底 而且保底的算法是照原PO写的那样递增的机率 结论就是有保底的意思

先推 好猛啊

讲!重!点!

依我玩舰娘的经验统计才2%的东西也会天天有过百场的人崩溃，能没人超过40次还没保底那是奇迹

喂 你才是原PO好吗XDDDDDDDD

看不懂还是推了

看统计数字感觉是默认机率比2/81更低，后面提升更多

推个，跟炉石40包一定有一张传说差不多意思...

尤其是几乎没有人连两张黑金，但统计下来机率高达3%多其他卡更低的机率都在连发了XD

推, 虽然看不懂不过谢谢结论和跑程式XD

或者说不要侷限于连两张，连续五张或十张以内黑金的次数都比其他那些1% 2%的卡还低^出现两张

不管辣，保底只是都市传说，这都是统计数据的正常呈现zzz我先帮楼下发言

我连发光古希ww

有保底 那就是看个人愿不愿意花150石买一张卡 或是继续用以小搏大的心态去抽

http://i.imgur.com/qcgeQX2.jpg看起来抽超雷ww

150石也只是是个大概而以

我最后一次看这个公式已经是一年前写研究报告的时候了呜呜头好痛啊

我相信机率是递增 但递增曲线应该不是线性

花了6000 ,抽到一火一水剩100颗石头应该有保底只是付出的代价很大之前使魔，古希，省下来没抽，现在一次吐出来

真的是看自己要不要花那个钱

直接计算版上统计机率来看，3.78%的机率中黑金，不保底的情况下，一直抽到30~39抽中一张的机率是10.46%，29抽以内中的机率是67.29%，40抽以后中的机率是22.25%。跟版上统计一比，答案应该明显了吧

这次MH真的是赚翻了 下次一定复制这模式

今天他在GOOGLE PLAY的排行榜已经冲到第4了耶 平常都30上下

这模式真的还不错阿 35抽 大概就很稳了 连无课都能考虑存

这模式每次都要掏个至少3600耶 有很好吗

我比较喜欢一般那种一次出五张，然后单日加倍的

apk不到3000有190颗，有兴趣入坑可考虑

不是刚好3000买190颗吗

嗯嗯，我也是这样想的!

这篇正解了

原来mycard价钱也调整了@@，那改用mycard比较便宜一点

看来明年新年中国神有可能比照这模式了？

跟我昨天跑的数值差不多

完全没抽~反正我光古苍蝇没半只也是撑到现在 不想花3000抽1只

看推文才知道mycard也降价了，感谢分享

有很多管道可买到9.x折，例如1x3的app，大概2800，190颗

有没有人连续三张妍希都同一张?已经两张水了，怕又重复，考虑要不要继续拼

我也没有光古苍蝇 帮哭哭

苍蝇我们工会反而很多人抽到

3000抽一只 算了吧

看不懂推

有一堆my card...却不会用APK...

John 我也是两张水在挣扎要不要拼

皮朋怎么常常卖萌

我们家这边 mycard 有 95 折 ㄎd