WTPN22 PHNC 110200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93C)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.3N 140.6W TO 17.1N 145.2W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 110000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.4N 140.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93C) IS LOCATED AT 10.4N
140.7W, APPROXIMATELY 1003 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAWAII. ANIMATED
ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED
AND ELONGATED BUT SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A 102258Z
AMSR2 89H DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-
20 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C), AND GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS HEADING NORTH NORTHWESTWARD.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
120200Z.
//
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