https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp9219web.txt
https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp9219.gif
WTPN22 PGTW 311930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92W)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/311851Z AUG 19//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW
311900)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.8N 131.4E TO 15.8N 125.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 311800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.5N 130.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.9N 134.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 130.7E, APPROXIMATELY 332
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DAVAO CITY, THE PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AMPLE FLARING CONVECTION OVER A
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS OVERALL
FAVORABLE, WITH WARM (29-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, MODERATE (10-
20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO
FORMATIVE RADIAL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ALL SHOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWEST ALONG THE PHILIPPINE COAST, HOWEVER THE
ECMWF AND UKMO DELAY THE ONSET OF 25 KNOT WINDS UNTIL CLOSER TO THE
48 HOUR MARK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO
23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
011930Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 118.3E.//
NNNN
系统的LLCC开始明显有深层对流覆蓋，
目前位于摄氏29~31度的海温，10~20kts的垂直风切，并呈现辐射状的优秀流出
全球模式认为系统在接近菲律宾沿海会明显发展，
但ECMWF和UKMO预测则迟至接近48小时后才会发展至25kts的强度，
此为JTWC认为现有的资料不完全支持在此时发出TCFA的原因。
台湾风季未来一周的观察重点，除了和副高与91W的互动，
在91W日前已发出TCFA和GW的状况下，谁会抢到玲玲也是值得关注的部分。