TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W (THIRTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 531 NM SOUTHEAST OF AN
DERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED CONSOLIDATING LOW L
EVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) UNDER A BROAD PERSISTENT AREA OF CONVECTION THA
T ALSO FEATURES AN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW TAIL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WI
TH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND A 272220Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE. THE I
NITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KT
S), AND IS BELOW THE KNES ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS RE
VEALS MOSTLY EASTERLY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WITH A SMALL POINT SOURCE DEVELOPING OV
ER TOP OF THE SYSTEM. 30W IS LOCATED ON THE BORDER OF MODERATE TO STRONG (15-2
0 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHICH HAS BEEN DELAYING CONSOLIDATION. SEA SU
RFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 28 AND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TD 30W
IS MOVING WESTWARD UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO ITS NORTH.
https://upload.cc/i1/2018/09/28/ojkCiJ.gif

假直扑 真转弯~~~ 去去转弯去

EC+96好像变化不大+120修东调北EC这报像马勒卡北转?

我倒不觉得这颗还有可能来…EC这次早早跟进GFS可能被潭美教训过了XDD这只太远了，高压没办法撑到一路让它偏西到南海甚至台湾?哀...今年台湾真幸运

今年台湾真的很强运 立场全开

那霸 50m/s了!https://i.imgur.com/p8OXQGl.png那霸雷达不知道是不是被吹坏了...缺一块那霸南城 53.1m/s 了!潭美刷一波差不多扫到眼墙了，16、17级阵风开始出现了!不知道网络上哪里还有冲绳那霸的现况直播可以看除了上面板友贴的网址之外https://i.imgur.com/dA64Fw4.png潭美造成那霸市16万户停电

00z走得比12z慢些 不知会否提早转北

https://i.imgur.com/YPEICgV.png照EC预报准康芮来到了潭美卡鞍的位置也要上演同样的戏码吗XDDD后方槽线预备中----到底要怎么判断槽线的强度和位置足不足以勾走热带气旋我还是不太清楚槽后脊加强高压负涡度，使高压稳固?EC 168+的预报最好别被媒体看到XDD再过不久又会出现一堆恐恐恐不过这波带走潭美的槽线东移后能把高压挤成这样?GFS还是跟EC不同调XDDD，又要来场胜负对决了那四次可信度会都一样吗@@还是以00 12Z为主?那就要看康芮前期增强幅度有多大了，还有到时候的导引明不明显了哈哈哈还是要来一颗过瘾一下XDDhttps://i.imgur.com/AOa48TN.gifMariahttps://i.imgur.com/Gj4lDqV.gif康芮潭美滞留太久啦...能量都被吸走看看高压怎么推它了====大自然平衡能量的方法，总不能每只都C4、C5以上XDD这样某些国家可能会很崩溃