https://i.imgur.com/xx9oaw4.jpg
JTWC警报图
https://imgur.com/a/34Pk509
机构路径
WTPN21 PGTW 170530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 160 NM EITHE
R SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.7N 158.9E TO 14.7N 152.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HO
URS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WAR
NINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METS
AT IMAGERY AT 170500Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.6
N 158.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.2N
162.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 158.3E, APPROXIMATELY 795NM EAST OF GUAM. ANIM
ATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INT
O AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION
FLARING OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. A 170240Z GMI 36GHZ IMAGE SHOW
S FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND SHALLOW BANDING OVER THE E
ASTERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A RAGGED LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OFFSET BY POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT CELL POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.
SST VALUES ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AT 29C. NUMERICAL MODELS
INDICATE A WESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHERN MARIANAS. MAXIMUM SUSTA
INED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFI
CANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 180530Z.
// NNNN