https://imgur.com/lmYJyyg http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp9218web.txt WTPN21 PGTW 140200 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.4N 137.0E TO 20.0N 127.9E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 140130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 136.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 138.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 136.0E, APPROXIMATELY 625 NM NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. A 132113Z WINDSAT 37GHZ IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING WITH AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LLCC. A 132348Z PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES 15 TO 20 KNOT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. A 14/0000Z SHIP REPORT AT 20.0N 135.8E, 25NM NNW OF THE CENTER, INDICATES NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AT 22 KNOTS WITH SLP NEAR 1003MB, WHICH SHOWS SOME STRONGER WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE TUTT TO THE NORTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WESTWARD TRACK WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 150200Z.// NNNN 目前预测仍是以92W取得主导权获得山神名字机会较高，以通过巴士海峡的预测为主流， 后期通过恒春南方后的速度和方向目前仍是一日数变， 台海北上或一路西行至珠三角甚至粤西海南一带都有，速度也有很大的分歧 未来须密切观察并注意海边风浪。