http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp9117web.txt http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp9117.gif WTPN21 PGTW 140230 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.7N 140.0E TO 11.0N 134.7E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 140000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 139.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 142.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 139.5E, APPROXIMATELY 95 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SOMEWHAT ELONGATED AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION BEGINNING TO PERSIST OVER THE CENTER. A 132112Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DISTINCT BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER AS WELL AS CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS) AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK TO THE WEST- NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND INTENSIFY TO WARNING CRITERIA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 150230Z.// NNNN 感觉稍微有点给快了，老J自己也在报文表示现况不确定是否达到预警标准。 不过随着LLCC逐渐有对流覆蓋且出现旋卷性，加上未来环境优良还是发了。 数值预测今年最有成为大物潜力的系统， 如果明显发展确实如老J所说比数值提前快2天，未来可能预报变动不小。