ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 08 2017
Latest data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane a few hours ago
indicate that Irma's intensity continues to fluctuate, and the
winds are estimated at 135 kt. The last minimum central pressure
was 925 mb. Another reconnaissance plane will check Irma soon.
数小时前来自飓风猎人最新的资料显示Irma强度持续变动中,风力估计有135节
最新中心最小气压有925mb. 另外一架侦察机很快会确认
The environment is favorable for Irma to maintain its category 4
status, and only unpredictable eyewall replacement cycles could
result in intensity fluctuations during the next 48 hours. The
interaction of the hurricane's circulation with Cuba will probably
not result in any relevant change in intensity. In summary, the NHC
forecast brings Irma near south Florida as a category 4 hurricane.
After landfall, interaction with land and an increase in wind shear
should induce gradual weakening.
环境对Irma有助于维持第四级状态, 唯一无法预测的是接下来四十八小时
眼墙置换循环导致的强度变化. 飓风环流与古巴的交互作用将可能不造成
对强度更多的变化. 总而言之, 本中心预报把Irma以四级飓风带入靠近佛州南部.
登陆后陆地的影响与风切增强应该逐渐减弱强度
Satellite images and radar fixes from Cuba indicate that Irma has
slowed down and is now moving toward the west or 280 degrees at
about 10 kt. The hurricane should continue on this track for the
next 12 hours to 24 hours, and this track will bring the core of
Irma very close to the north coast of Cuba. After that time, Irma
should reach the southwestern edge of the subtropical high and begin
to move toward the northwest and north-northwest toward the Florida
peninsula. The precise moment of this turn is still uncertain, and
that is why NHC emphasizes that nobody should focus on the exact
track of the center. This afternoon's NHC forecast was again
adjusted a little bit westward following the trend of the ECMWF
model and both the HFIP corrected consensus and the FSU
Superensemble. In fact, these 3 aids continued to be tightly packed.
卫星影像与古巴雷达定位指示Irma速动放慢,并现在10节280度朝西行进.
在接下来十二到二十四小时飓风应该维持此路径, 并且此路径将Irma核心带入
接近古巴北海岸. 过了此时间后, Irma应该接近副热带高压脊西南缘,
并开始朝西北与北北西前往佛州半岛.
此转向的精确时刻依旧不确定, 这就是为何本中心强调任何人不该注重确实的路径中心.
此本中心午后预报依据ECMWF模式的趋势,以及HFIP校正集成和FSU超系集此两者一起,
再次稍微向西改动. 事实上, 此三模式持续紧密集合著.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Irma will continue to bring life-threatening wind, storm surge,
and rainfall hazards to portions of the Bahamas and the north coast
of Cuba, especially over the adjacent Cuban Keys, through Saturday.
Irma将持续对部分巴哈马群岛与古巴北海岸带来致命强风, 风暴潮, 与灾害性降雨等
2. Irma is expected to make landfall in Florida as an extremely
dangerous major hurricane, and will bring life-threatening wind
impacts to much of the state regardless of the exact track of the
center.
预料Irma以极度危险的主要飓风登陆佛州,
无论确实中心位于路径何处将对全州产生致命强风
3. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation in
southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next 36 hours,
where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. The threat of significant
storm surge flooding along the southwest coast of Florida has
increased, and 8 to 12 feet of inundation above ground level is
possible in this area. This is a life-threatening situation.
Everyone in these areas should take all actions to protect life and
property from rising water and follow evacuation instructions from
local officials.
接下来三十六小时在佛州南端与佛州礁岛群会有致命风暴潮产生溢淹的危险,
此地区的风暴潮预警生效中. 在佛州西南海岸出现风暴潮淹水的威胁显著增加,
在此区域有可能出现8到12呎的溢淹高度. 这是危及生命的情况.
助于此地区的任何人应该采取所有手段保护生命与财产以免受洪水
并遵照地方政府的疏散指示
4. Irma is expected to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding.
Total rain accumulations of 8 to 15 inches, with isolated amounts of
20 inches are expected over the Florida Keys and much of the Florida
peninsula through Tuesday night. The highest amounts are expected
over the eastern Florida peninsula and upper Florida Keys. Irma
will likely bring periods of heavy rain to much of Georgia, South
Carolina, and western North Carolina early next week, including some
mountainous areas which are more prone to flash flooding. All areas
seeing heavy rainfall from Irma will experience a risk of flooding
and flash flooding.
Irma预料在产生强降雨以及内陆淹水.
到周二晚间佛州礁岛群与大部分佛州预期出现总降雨累积8到15吋, 加上20吋局部
雨量. 最高降雨量预料出现于佛州半岛东部与上礁岛群.
Irma将有可能会在下周初在大部分的乔治亚州,卡罗莱纳州南部与北卡罗莱纳州西部
产生局部大雨, 包括部分更容易淹水的山区.
会因Irma出现大雨的地区将会有淹水与暴洪的风险