1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 200 NM RADIUS OF 16.8N 123.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 03 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 230100Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 123.4E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.8N 123.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 195 NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED, PARTIALLY-
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED,
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 222258Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS
TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. AN
EARLIER ASCAT IMAGE (221249Z) SHOWED NUMEROUS 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEFINED CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS
A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE LLCC AND WEAK DIFFLUENCE. THE DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE A
GENERALLY SLOW NORTHWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
240130Z.
吕宋岛东方近海的小扰动就这样默默地发展起来了......
※ 编辑: navarra (168.150.122.81), 07/23/2015 10:04:59