WTPN21 PGTW 162000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
165 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.5N 137.0E TO 17.7N 131.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 161930Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.8N 136.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.0N
137.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 136.5E, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF YAP. RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
SOME CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITHIN A
BROADER AREA OF TURNING. AN 161716Z AMSU-B AND A 161605Z GCOM IMAGE
DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE
AREA WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING. GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE EVIDENT OVER THE LLCC FOR AN OVERALL
POSITIVE AFFECT IN THE UPPER LEVELS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, POSITIONED TO THE
NORTHEAST, WITH GOOD DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
172000Z.//
NNNN


EC系集预测转向
前期副高西伸后遇到副高受槽打击东退(?
转向点有可能极为靠近台湾陆地
离散程度很大 变量很多
还要继续追踪下去
不过套个没根据的经验
多数侵台台风 都是有变量很大开始的...