原文标题：
Traders place $430 million bet on lower oil price before Trump ceasefire
extension
Gemini机翻：
交易者在川普延长停火协议前，斥资 4.3 亿美元押注油价下跌
原文连结：
https://tinyurl.com/3e7y6d86
发布时间：
04/22/2026, 09:19 AM Updated 04/22/2026, 10:13 AM
记者署名：
无
原文内容：
LONDON, April 22 (Reuters) - Traders placed a series of bets worth $430
million on a drop in crude prices just 15 minutes before U.S. President Donald
Trump said he would extend a ceasefire with Iran on Tuesday. It is the
third time this month, and the fourth in total, that large, well-timed
directional bets on the oil price have been made shortly before major
announcements on the Iran war. One combined wager in March was worth $500
million, while April’s bets have together totalled some $2.1 billion. ‧
Between 1954 and 1956 GMT on Tuesday, 4,260 lots of selling hit the oil market
, worth a combined $430 million, based on the prevailing Brent futures price,
according to LSEG data. Trump said he would extend the ceasefire indefinitely
at 2010 GMT. ‧ The Brent market settles at 1830 GMT, meaning these trades
took place in what is known as post-settlement hours, when volumes are usually
extremely limited. ‧ The trades did not have much impact on the price, which
edged down to $100.66 a barrel, from $100.91 before they took place. After
Trump’s announcement, Brent crude futures fell to a low of $96.83 in the
minute that followed. They were last trading at $99.2 a barrel at 1200 GMT on
Wednesday.‧ On March 23, 15 minutes before Trump announced a delay to
threatened attacks on Iranian power infrastructure, anonymous traders placed $
500 million on a drop in the oil price. Similarly, on April 7, bets worth $950
million went through just hours before Trump’s announcement of a two-week
ceasefire.‧ On April 17, some 20 minutes prior to the Iranian foreign
minister posting on social media that the Strait of Hormuz would be open to
commercial shipping, traders placed $760 million in bets on a falling oil
price. ‧ The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is investigating a
series of oil futures trades, including those on March 23 and April 7, that
were placed shortly before major policy shifts by Trump related to the war in
Iran, a person familiar with the matter said on April 15. ‧ A spokesperson
for the Intercontinental Exchange, known as ICE, declined to comment.
伦敦，4 月 22 日（路透社）— 周二，就在美国总统唐纳·川普（Donald Trump）宣布
将延长与伊朗的停火协议前 15 分钟，交易员进行了一系列价值 4.3 亿美元的押注，看
好原油价格下跌。
这是本月第三次，也是总计第四次，在关于伊朗战争的重大宣布前夕，出现大规模且时机
精准的油价定向押注。3 月份的一项组合赌注价值 5 亿美元，而 4 月份的押注总额已达
到约 21 亿美元。
根据伦敦证券交易所集团（LSEG）的数据，周二格林威治标准时间（GMT）19:54 至
19:56 之间，原油市场出现了 4,260 手卖盘，以当时的布兰特（Brent）原油期货价格计
算，总值达 4.3 亿美元。川普随后在 GMT 20:10 宣布他将无限期延长停火。
布兰特原油市场于 GMT 18:30 结算，这意味着这些交易发生在所谓的盘后交易时段
，通常此时的交易量极其有限。
这些交易对价格影响不大，油价从交易前的每桶 100.91 美元微跌至 100.66 美元。
在川普宣布消息后，布兰特原油期货在随后的一分钟内跌至 96.83 美元的低点。周三
GMT 12:00，其交易价格为每桶 99.2 美元。
3 月 23 日，在川普宣布推迟对伊朗电力基础设施的威胁攻击前 15 分钟，匿名交易
员押注 5 亿美元看跌油价。同样地，在 4 月 7 日，就在川普宣布为期两周的停火消息
发布前几小时，价值 9.5 亿美元的押注成交。
4 月 17 日，在伊朗外交部长在社群媒体上发布霍姆兹海峡（Strait of Hormuz）将
对商业航运开放的消息前约 20 分钟，交易员投入了 7.6 亿美元押注油价下跌。
一位知情人士于 4 月 15 日表示，美国商品期货交易委员会（U.S. Commodity
Futures Trading Commission, CFTC）正在调查一系列油价期货交易，包括 3 月 23 日
和 4 月 7 日的交易，这些交易均在川普发布与伊朗战争相关的重大政策转向之前进行。
洲际交易所（Intercontinental Exchange, ICE）的发言人拒绝置评。
心得/评论：
哪来的原油期货之神，保守估计光这次美国伊朗战争获利一亿美元以上吧...
前几次的精准下注交易可以参考这篇的内容（有图）
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cge0grppe3po
连续四次都在短时间前精准猜中也太夸张。