原文标题：
Here's what gold crossing $4,000 is telling us about the U.S. economy
原文连结：
https://www.aol.com/articles/heres-gold-crossing-4-000-191226453.html
发布时间：Thu, October 9, 2025 at 3:12 AM GMT+8
记者署名：Aimee Picchi
原文内容：
Gold is glittering for investors, with prices now topping a record $4,000 an
ounce. But the reasons behind the shiny metal's surge may be less than
dazzling, with Wall Street analysts saying it reflects growing unease over the
U.S. economy and political stability.
黄金对投资者来说闪闪发光，价格现已创下每盎司 4,000 美元的纪录。但华尔街分析师
表示，这种闪亮金属飙升背后的原因可能并不那么耀眼，它反映了人们对美国经济和政治
稳定日益增长的不安。
The price of gold has leaped 53% this year alone, far outpacing the 15% gain
in the S&P 500 stock index over the same period. The price of an ounce of gold
edged higher on Wednesday, touching $4,078, according to financial data
company FactSet, with some analysts predicting it to go higher.
仅今年，黄金价格就飙升了 53%，远超标准普尔 500 股票指数同期 15% 的涨幅。根据金
融数据公司 FactSet 的数据，周三黄金价格小幅走高，触及 4,078 美元一盎司，一些分
析师预测还会更高。
Investors have long turned to gold during periods of economic turmoil and high
inflation, viewing it as both a safe haven when markets turn volatile and a
hedge against rising prices.
在经济动荡和高通胀时期，投资者长期以来一直转向黄金，将其视为市场波动时的避风港
和对抗价格上涨的对冲工具。
Of late, however, stock prices have steamed to record highs this year,
economic growth has accelerated in recent months and inflation this year has
remained relatively subdued, prompting questions about what's fueling
investors' renewed appetite for gold.
然而，近来股市今年飙升至创纪录高点，经济增长近几个月有所加速，且今年通胀仍相对
温和，这引发了关于是什么重新点燃了投资者对黄金兴趣的疑问。
"$4,000 an ounce seemed far-fetched at the start of the year as gold entered
2025 near $2,800 an ounce. But after a ~50% rally, here we are," eToro U.S.
investment analyst Bret Kenwell said in an email.
eToro 美国投资分析师 Bret Kenwell 在一封电子邮件中表示：“年初时，黄金以每盎司
近 2,800 美元的价格进入 2025 年，4,000 美元一盎司似乎遥不可及。但在经历了约 50
% 的涨幅之后，我们现在达到了。”
The reasons for the surge boil down to several economic and political factors,
according to Kenwell and other investment analysts.
根据 Kenwell 和其他投资分析师的说法，黄金飙升的原因归结为几个经济和政治因素。
Economic uncertainty
经济不确定性
Gold is often a refuge for investors when they're worried about the economy,
and the ongoing U.S. government shutdown is only fueling their anxieties,
according to Nigel Green, CEO of investment firm deVere Group.
投资公司 deVere Group 首席执行官 Nigel Green 表示，当投资者担心经济时，黄金通
常是他们的避难所，而持续的美国政府停摆只会加剧他们的焦虑。
"The situation in Washington has reminded investors that political promises do
not equate to financial security. Gold represents protection from that
uncertainty, but its price now also reflects how much faith has drained from
other assets. That level of dependence always carries risk," Green said in an
email.
Green 在一封电子邮件中说：“华盛顿的局势提醒了投资者，政治承诺并不等同于金融安
全。黄金代表了对这种不确定性的保护，但其价格现在也反映了其他资产流失了多少信心
。这种依赖程度总是带有风险。”
Although the economy continues to expand, investors are also expressing
concern about potential headwinds to growth, including the impact of U.S.
tariffs and a weakening job market, according to economists.
经济学家表示，尽管经济持续扩张，但投资者也对潜在的增长阻力表示担忧，包括美国关
税的影响和就业市场的疲软。
Federal agencies currently aren't releasing economic data due to the
government shutdown, now in its second week. That makes it more difficult to
get a handle on the state of the economy, said Kevin Ford, FX and macro
strategist at Convera.
Convera 的外汇和宏观策略师 Kevin Ford 表示，由于政府停摆已进入第二周，联邦机构
目前没有发布经济数据。这使得人们更难掌握经济状况。
"[T]he US economy remains a challenge to read due to the ongoing government
shutdown, which has severely diminished visibility," Ford noted. "However, the
shutdown is a material headwind: S&P Global Ratings estimates it could trim
GDP growth by 0.10.2 percentage point for every week the government remains
closed."
Ford 指出：“由于持续的政府停摆，美国经济仍然难以解读，这严重降低了可见度。”
“然而，停摆是一个实质性的阻力：标普全球评级估计，政府每关闭一周，就可能削减
GDP 增长 0.1-0.2 个百分点。”
Fed rate cuts
联准会降息
In September, the Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate for the
first time since late 2024 and signaled that two more cuts could be in the
cards later this year.
9 月，联准会自 2024 年底以来首次下调了基准利率，并暗示今年晚些时候可能还会再降
息两次。
Gold has risen partly due to investor expectations that the Fed is entering a
cycle of easing its monetary policy, according to Bart Melek, head of
commodity strategy at TD Securities.
道明证券 (TD Securities) 大宗商品策略主管 Bart Melek 表示，黄金上涨的部分原因
是投资者预期联准会正在进入一个宽松货币政策的周期。
With interest rates seemingly heading lower, gold is more attractive as a
financial asset because investors aren't losing out on higher yields from
Treasuries and other government bonds, he told investors in a report. And with
inflation drifting up due to the impact of the Trump administration's tariffs
, gold can also continue to offer an inflation hedge.
他在一份报告中告诉投资者，随着利率似乎走低，黄金作为一种金融资产更具吸引力，因
为投资者不会错失国债和其他政府债券的更高收益。而且，由于川普政府关税的影响导致
通胀上升，黄金还可以继续提供通胀对冲。
Gold "may be a better safe-haven than Treasuries," Melek wrote. "Add to that
the fact that ore grades are dropping, the increased use of these factors of
production suggests that gold would be better at protecting purchasing power."
Melek 写道，黄金“可能比国债是一个更好的避风港”。 “再加上矿石品位正在下降，
这些生产要素使用量的增加表明，黄金将更好地保护购买力。”
Global gold demand
全球黄金需求
Investments in gold have also been driven by other factors. Analysts point to
strong gold demand from central banks around the world amid heightened
geopolitical tensions, such as the ongoing wars in Gaza and Ukraine.
黄金投资也受到其他因素的推动。分析师指出，在全球地缘政治紧张局势加剧（例如加沙
和乌克兰正在发生的战争）的情况下，全球央行对黄金的需求强劲。
"The gold rally started in 2022," Giovanni Staunovo, commodity analyst at UBS
Global Wealth Management, said via email on Tuesday. The "trigger point" for
the increase was when the U.S. and other Western allies moved to freeze around
$300 billion of Russian foreign holdings at the beginning of the war in
Ukraine, he added.
瑞银全球财富管理公司大宗商品分析师 Giovanni Staunovo 周二通过电子邮件表示：“
黄金涨势始于 2022 年。”他补充说，价格上涨的“触发点”是乌克兰战争开始时，美国
和其他西方盟友采取行动冻结了约 3,000 亿美元的俄罗斯外国资产。
Central banks in other nations are "the quiet force behind this climb," deVere
's Green said. "They are buying close to one thousand [tons] of gold each year
to reduce exposure to the dollar and to reinforce their financial resilience.
When official institutions keep accumulating at this rate, they create a
strong foundation beneath the market, but even that has limits."
deVere 的 Green 表示，其他国家的央行是“这次上涨背后的无声力量”。 “他们每年
购买近一千吨黄金，以减少对美元的敞口并增强其金融韧性。当官方机构以这种速度持续
积累时，他们在市场下方创造了一个坚实的基础，但即使是这样也有其限制。”
Where could gold go from here?
黄金接下来会走向何方？
Some investment pros think gold has more room to run, pointing to ongoing
economic challenges such as the slowing U.S. job market and rising inflation,
as well as the Fed likely continuing to push down borrowing costs.
一些投资专家认为黄金还有更大的上涨空间，他们指出持续存在的经济挑战，例如美国就
业市场放缓和通胀上升，以及联准会可能继续压低借贷成本。
"We think the rally is not yet done — we expect prices to rise to $4,200/oz
over the coming months — and keep our 'attractive' rating on gold in our
global strategy," Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and global head of
equities at UBS Global Wealth Management, told investors in an email.
瑞银全球财富管理公司美洲区首席投资官兼全球股票主管 Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi
在一封电子邮件中告诉投资者：“我们认为涨势尚未结束——我们预计未来几个月价格将
上涨到 4,200 美元/盎司——并在我们的全球策略中维持对黄金的‘有吸引力’评级。”
Goldman Sachs is forecasting that gold could hit $4,900 an ounce by December
2026, Reuters reported.
据路透社报导，高盛预测黄金到 2026 年 12 月可能达到每盎司 4,900 美元。
Still, experts urge average investors not to put all their eggs in one basket.
Critics say gold isn't always the inflation hedge many claim and that there
are more efficient ways to protect against potential loss of capital, such as
derivative-based investments.
尽管如此，专家敦促普通投资者不要把所有的鸡蛋放在一个篮子里。批评者表示，黄金并
不总是许多人声称的通胀对冲工具，而且还有更有效的方法来防止潜在的资本损失，例如
基于衍生品的投资。
"Gold is perceived by many market participants as a safe-haven asset. But
investors need to be aware it has a volatility of 10-15%," Staunovo noted. He
added that smaller amounts of physical gold, such as gold coins or 1-gram bars
, have larger ranges between buying and selling prices.
Staunovo 指出：“黄金被许多市场参与者视为避险资产。但投资者需要意识到它有 10-
15% 的波动性。”他补充说，少量实物黄金，例如金币或 1 克金条，买卖价格之间的差
额更大。
心得/评论：
不是通膨，而是信任危机：
华府政治僵局、政府关门与债务问题让投资者怀疑“美国国力与治理品质”。
美元体系的结构性挑战：
多国央行“去美元化”，使黄金重新成为全球储备资产。
美债收益下降、通膨上行：
降息＋关税推升物价，使黄金比美债更具吸引力。
短期技术面仍有上行空间（至4,200–4,900美元），
但中长期走势将取决于实质利率与美国财政状况。