原文标题：AMD stock: Wells Fargo sees a 'tricky' earnings setup
原文连结：https://reurl.cc/KeKeoq
发布时间：04/09/2024, 09:39 AM
原文内容：
With AMD (NASDAQ:AMD) stock down in recent weeks, analysts at Wells Fargo previe
wed the company’s first-quarter earnings report.
Unfortunately for investors, Wells Fargo sees the company as having a “tricky s
etup” into the print.
Why AMD stock is down in recent weeks
AMD’s stock price has experienced a significant decline, falling over 20% in th
e last month and a further 5% in the last week of trading, now hovering around t
he $170 per share level. This is a stark contrast to just a few weeks ago when t
he stock was trading above the $200 per share mark.
Artificial intelligence related stocks have surged this year, and AMD, as one of
those stocks, has benefitted. However, interest rate uncertainty has helped to
weigh on AMD shares, while there have also been questions regarding the company
’s current valuation. With questions about its outlook also coming into play, A
MD’s stock has experienced a move lower in recent weeks.
Tech stocks, including semiconductor chip names, are generally sensitive to inte
rest rate movements as the companies sometimes rely on borrowing to fund researc
h and development.
Even so, some analysts remain bullish. On Monday, Melius raised the price target
on AMD to $265 from $192 while maintaining a Buy rating.
The firm said AMD is “looking like the ‘Nvidia mini.’”
“With a chip optimized for the inferencing explosion, AMD is just getting going
as AI models move into production,” said Melius. ”AMD’s chart even feels lik
e a mini-Nvidia on a delay.”
“Nvidia continues to do AMD and everyone else a favor by expanding the market a
nd driving awareness,” added Melius. “Their success has only accelerated the d
esire for a (distant) number 2 branded provider."
Wells Fargo sees a tricky earnings setup
Despite the positivity from Melius, analysts at Wells Fargo, when previewing the
chipmaker’s first quarter earnings report, said they see a “tricky setup” fo
r the company.
“AMD discussions remain focused on the MI300X upside bogey,” said the bank. “
AMD sentiment has waned over the past month given: 1. Possible cuts in MSFT's MI
300X deploy — we see this as too narrowly cited. 2. Concern over Samsung (KS:00
5930) HBM3 supply for MI300X — we see this concern as overdone. 3. A renewed/de
epened appreciation for NVDA's full stack post-GTC — we agree; we still model A
MD's at a sub-10% DC GPU share.”
Wells Fargo estimates that AMD has had a 40% or more server CPU ship share in hy
perscale cloud in the past — a share position they see as more likely higher fo
r internal workloads compared to external hyperscale cloud services.
With this in mind, the bank said that investors will be interested in AMD's thou
ghts on whether they have seen any signs of a recovery in traditional servers wi
thin their hyperscale cloud customers while also garnering an increased share in
external services. Furthermore, they state AMD's share trends in traditional sy
stem OEMs also remain an incremental growth driver.
Wells Fargo models AMD’s first quarter revenue at $5.46 billion and its EPS at
$0.62.
翻译：
近几周，由于AMD（NASDAQ：AMD）股票下跌，富国银行的分析师们预览了该公司的第一季度
财报。
对于投资者来说，不幸的是，富国银行认为该公司在财报公布之前的情况是“棘手的”。
AMD的股价出现了显著下降，过去一个月下跌了逾20％，上周交易进一步下跌了5％，目前大
约在每股170美元左右。这与仅几周前该股票交易在每股200美元以上的情况形成了鲜明对比
。
人工智能相关股票今年大幅上涨，而AMD作为其中之一，也受益。然而，利率不确定性使得A
MD股票承受压力，同时也有关于公司目前估值的疑问。随着对其前景的疑问也开始浮出水面
，AMD股票近几周出现了下跌。
科技股票，包括半导体芯片公司，在利率变动方面通常很敏感，因为这些公司有时依赖借贷
来资助研发。
即便如此，一些分析师仍然看好。周一，Melius将AMD的目标价提高到265美元，而维持买入
评级。
该公司表示，AMD“看起来像是‘迷你版的英伟达’。”
“随着针对推断爆炸的芯片优化，AMD正在起步，因为人工智能模型开始投入生产，”Meliu
s说道。“甚至AMD的图表都像是一个延迟的迷你英伟达。”
“英伟达继续帮助AMD和其他所有人扩大市场并提高意识，”Melius补充道。“他们的成功
只加速了对（遥远的）第二大品牌供应商的渴望。”
富国银行认为财报情况棘手
尽管Melius表示积极乐观，但富国银行的分析师在预览这家芯片制造商的第一季度财报时表
示，他们认为公司面临“棘手的情况”。
“AMD的讨论仍然集中在MI300X上的上行目标，”该银行说道。“由于以下原因，过去一个
月来AMD的情绪已经下降：1.微软（MSFT）可能会削减MI300X的部署——我们认为这太狭隘
了。2.对于三星（KS：005930）HBM3供应MI300X的担忧——我们认为这种担忧是过度的。3.
对于英伟达在GTC后的全套装备的重新/加深的赏识——我们同意；我们仍然认为AMD的DC GP
U份额低于10％。”
富国银行估计，过去AMD在超大规模云中具有40％或更高的服务器CPU出货份额——他们认为
这个份额相对于外部超大规模云服务而言，在内部工作负载方面更可能更高。
考虑到这一点，该银行表示，投资者将对AMD对于他们是否看到传统服务器在超大规模云客
户中的任何复苏迹象以及在外部服务中获得增加份额感兴趣。此外，他们还指出，AMD在传
统系统OEM中的份额趋势仍然是增量增长的驱动因素。
富国银行将AMD的第一季度收入估计为54.6亿美元，每股盈利为0.62美元。
心得评论：
有人认为微软削减MI300X 还有HBM产能不够分给AMD.
但据我所知 Nvidia占了大部分或是几乎全部的HBM3e产能了 如果AMD之后要用HBM3e 可能寥
寥无几.
难怪这个月跌了快30%.. 财报前这种消息真的凉了
大伙儿 我们还是乖乖TSM+NVDL吧！