https://www.pttweb.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1694237467.A.9B8
这篇文章很可惜的被删掉了
其实ptt上有很多篇文章都在谈论利率，如
https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1694616152.A.269.html
https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1694611617.A.C3E.html
https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1694391683.A.776.html
等等，多不胜数
不过我也不怪板主，毕竟板主是无给职，每天要花那么多时间维持板面也是很辛苦的
。
进入正文
台湾人普遍都对利率太乐观了
美国房贷利率7%
全世界平均房贷利率6%
台湾房贷利率2%
日本房贷利率1.5%
全世界台湾应该是第二名，只输日本而已
。
美国纵然降息，他还有7%
利率这个东西，他是看绝对数字，而不是相对数字
举例来说
医师的薪水一直下降
服务员的薪水一直上升
有人会因为这样不去当医师而跑去当服务员吗?
医师薪水长期走降，但还是很高
服务员薪水长期走升，但还是很低
。
全世界利率平均是6%
就算下降2%，那也还有4%，是台湾整整2倍之多
。
https://www.thenewslens.com/article/168320
美国是2022/3开始升息，一共升了5.5%，2022/3之前美国的利率是很低的
全世界也跟美国一样，2022/3开始大幅升息，少数几个国家例外而已
台湾只升了0.5%，只有美国的1/10
像台湾这样的情况非常的少见，而且也不会长久
。
全世界的经济是连在一起的，现在有人硬要说全世界都很差，只有我还好???
全世界的通膨是连在一起的，现在有人硬要说全世界都高通膨，只有我还好???
这个是一定不会长久的
。
我说台湾房价会腰斩，这个是好意提醒你们，但你们听不进去，硬要认为我在唱衰，然后
乱检举，我也不知道该说些什么
大多数的人都对台湾房价、台湾利率太乐观了
台湾独立于全世界的情况是不会长久的
※ 引述《gothmog (上海极司非尔路76号)》之铭言：
: 不负责翻译在最后
: Dollar to Rise Another 5% on Sticky Inflation, Acadian Says
: The dollar is poised to jump with Treasury yields in the coming months as still-
: elevated inflation will likely push the Federal Reserve toward further policy ti
: ghtening, says Clifton Hill at Acadian Asset Management.
: Bloomberg News
: Anya Andrianova
: Published Sep 12, 2023 ‧
: (Bloomberg) — The dollar is poised to jump with Treasury yields in the coming m
: onths as still-elevated inflation will likely push the Federal Reserve toward fu
: rther policy tightening, says Clifton Hill at Acadian Asset Management.
: Hill, a global macro portfolio manager, sees the US currency gaining an addition
: al 5% versus many peers, with the trigger coming as policy makers signal further
: interest-rate hikes in the leadup to their Oct. 31-Nov. 1 meeting. He’s preppi
: ng for that outcome by favoring the greenback against the Australian, New Zealan
: d and Canadian dollars, as well as the yen.
: His views on the Fed and the dollar proved prescient earlier this year. In Febru
: ary, he correctly predicted that the yen would fall back toward the 32-year lows
: it hit in 2022 as the Fed tightened further than many market participants antic
: ipated.
: The US currency stabilized on Tuesday, after falling from a six-month high Monda
: y as authorities in Japan and China ramped up support for their currencies. But
: as Hill sees it, the decline to start the week will amount to a bump in the road
: as markets reprice the Fed’s path. It’s a chain of events he also expects wil
: l push 10-year Treasury yields close to 5%, a level last seen in 2007, from roug
: hly 4.3% now.
: “The Fed may have to leave the possibility open of hiking further,” potentiall
: y two or three more times, said the money manager, whose firm oversees about $10
: 0 billion. “Inflation actually going up away from global central banks’ target
: s in the fourth quarter would be a game changer for markets.”
: Read more: Fed Hikes Risk Dragging Yen Back to 145 Per Dollar, Acadian Says
: Traders expect the Fed to stay on hold at a policy meeting next week, and see ro
: ughly a 50% chance that it delivers another hike at the following decision Nov.
: 1, before pivoting to cuts next year. The Fed pushed its benchmark rate to the h
: ighest in more than two decades in July to tame inflation.
: STORY CONTINUES BELOW
: The dollar gained the past eight weeks, buoyed by the US economy’s resilience r
: elative to other major peers, in particular Europe and China.
: US consumer-price index data scheduled for release Wednesday is expected to show
: inflation pressure reaccelerating, which risks jolting the Treasury market. The
: CPI is expected to have risen 3.6% in August from a year earlier, from 3.2% in
: July, even as the core measure — which removes food and energy costs — fell to
: 4.3%, the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey shows.
: Read more: Bond Traders Brace for Risk Inflation Will Fuel Rate-Hike Bets
: “Every time that inflation comes down some, markets and economists extrapolate
: out that it will continue all the way down to 2% in short order,” Hill said. “
: But we are still well over 4% in US core inflation, and there is a good chance t
: hat it stays there, or increases back up this autumn into early next year.”
: Hill also anticipates dollar strength versus most emerging markets, with the yua
: n, South Korean won and Brazilian real likely to lose the most.
: He acknowledges that his outlook poses a risk to assets like stocks, which are v
: ulnerable to any uptick in expectations for additional Fed tightening.
: But if inflation is proving tough to tackle, policy makers’ “hands are complet
: ely tied,” he said. “If inflation is going up, you can’t then all of a sudden
: cut rates.”
: In the “best case,” he said, in which inflation doesn’t accelerate as much as
: he expects, the Fed refrains from hiking further, and instead stays on hold for
: most of 2024.
: (Updates market movement.)
: 不负责翻译如下
: Acadian Asset Management（知名资产管理公司）管理著约1000亿美元的基金经理Clifton
: Hill表示，
: 未来几个月，美元将随着美国国债收益率的上涨而上涨，美元兑换其它货币将再上升5%（Fe
: d 非常有可能在10/31-11/1 的会议上宣布加息）
: 因为通膨打不下来，可能会推动美联储进一步收紧政策，至少再加息2-3次
: 他说：美国核心通膨还在4%以上 就不能说反通膨成功，反通膨没有成功 就不能提降息
: 结论： 救救美债？