Did US slash imports too much, setting stage for shipping rebound?
Greg Miller October 24, 2022
Hapag-Lloyd CEO：'I'm pretty sure what we're seeing is an overreaction－again'
Hapag-Lloyd CEO：我很确定我们所看到的是反应过度－再一次的
https://reurl.cc/nOQK8l
The U.S. supply chain is in the throes of a so-called “bullwhip effect.”
Importers overreacted to last year’s congestion and heightened consumer
demand, brought in too much cargo too early, and are now stuck with excess
inventory. Could there be a bullwhip effect in the opposite direction next
year?
美国的供应链正处于所谓的 "牛鞭效应 "的阵痛之中
进口商对去年的拥堵和消费者需求的增加反应过度
过早地进口了太多的货物，现在又被过剩的库存所困
明年会不会出现反方向的牛鞭效应呢？
It could happen, says Rolf Habben Jansen, CEO of ocean carrier Hapag-Lloyd. He
addressed this scenario — as well as his views on future rates, capacity
levels and trade patterns — during an online panel discussion Monday.
海运公司 Hapag-Lloyd 的 CEO (Rolf Habben Jansen) 表示，这可能会发生
他在周一的线上小组讨论中谈到了这种情况—
以及他对未来费率、产能水平和贸易模式的看法
“There is still a lot of volatility in the market, and everybody seems to be
doing the same thing, which is quite scary,” said Habben Jansen.
Habben Jansen 表示：市场上仍然有很多波动
而且每个人似乎都在做同样的事情，这相当可怕
“Everybody is overreacting all the time. At the start of COVID, we lost 20%
of our volume in two weeks because everybody started cutting their orders.
Then the economy recovered and everybody started ordering like crazy.
每个人都在不断地过度反应。在 COVID 开始时，我们在两周内损失了 20% 的销量
因为每个人都开始削减他们的订单。然后经济复苏，大家又开始疯狂订货
“This year we saw lots of people ordering Christmas stuff [for early arrival]
in the summer. So, a lot of volume was brought forward. Now we see congestion
easing, inventories filling up and warehouses filling up and everybody is
cutting orders like crazy. We’ve gone to the other extreme.
今年，我们看到很多人在夏天订购圣诞节的东西 (以便提前到达)
因此，大量的货物被提前
而现在，我们看到拥挤情况有所缓解，库存充斥且仓库填满
每个人都在疯狂地削减订单。我们已经走到了另一个极端
“I’m just waiting for the next step,” he said. “Because I’m pretty sure
what we’re seeing right now is an overreaction — again. People trying to cut
everything possible at this stage will see that underlying consumer demand is
actually relatively healthy and all of a sudden, they’ll become concerned
that their inventories are a bit on the low end and we’ll possibly see a
bounce-back.”
我只是在等待下一步的发展，他说
因为我很确定我们现在看到的是一种过度反应－再一次的
在这个阶段试图削减一切可能的人
将看到潜在的消费者需求实际上是相对健康的
突然间，他们会担心他们的库存有点偏低，我们可能会看到反弹
Post-COVID rates should top pre-COVID rates
后 COVID 运价应高于前 COVID 运价
Bringing forward Christmas cargoes to the summer left a hole in demand this
fall. Spot-rate indexes continue to decline, albeit at a slower pace recently
as ocean carriers remove more capacity to balance the market.
圣诞节的货物提前到夏季，给今年秋季的需求留下了缺口
现货价格指数继续下降，尽管最近下降的速度有所减缓
因为海运公司为平衡市场而取消了更多的运力
Habben Jansen, whose company is the world’s fifth largest ocean carrier
measured by fleet size, continues to believe that post-COVID rates will
ultimately end up higher than pre-COVID rates.
Habben Jansen 的公司依船队规模计算的世界第五大海运公司
他仍然认为，COVID 后的费率最终将高于COVID前的费率
“In the short term, anything is possible,” he said. “I think we will see
rates above pre-COVID, at that level, and below that level for stretches of
weeks or days. What’s more important is to look a little bit longer term.
他说：在短期内，一切皆有可能
我认为我们会看到费率高于 COVID 前的水平
在这个水平上，也会有几周或几天的时间低于这个水平
更重要的是要看得更长远一点。
“And in the end, whether we like it or not, costs have gone up quite
significantly over the last couple of years. Time-charter rates have gone up
and been committed to for longer periods. Terminal costs have gone up. Bunker
[fuel] costs have gone up. That results in a higher unit cost for the industry
, on average.
最后，不管我们喜欢与否，在过去的几年里，成本已经大幅上升
定期租船费用已经上升，且承诺的时间更长
码头成本已经上升了。燃油成本也上升了
这导致该行业的平均单位成本上升
“What we’ve seen in the last 10 years [prior to the COVID boom] is that
rates tend to hover somewhat above the cost level,” he continued. Because the
future cost level will be higher than the pre-COVID level, Habben Jansen
believes that carrier rates in the long term “are going to be significantly
above pre-pandemic levels.”
他继续说：我们在过去 10 年（在 COVID 盛行之前）所看到的是
运价往往在成本水平之上徘徊
由于未来的成本水平将高于 COVID 之前的水平
Habben Jansen 认为，从长远来看，承运人的费率将大大高于大流行前的水平
Hapag-Lloyd CEO sees newbuilds as a positive
赫伯罗特首席执行官认为新造船是一个积极因素
This assumes shipping lines don’t descend into a price war when a massive
wave of newbuildings hits the water starting next year.
假设航运公司在明年开始的大规模新造船潮中不会陷入价格战
Habben Jansen did not sound particularly worried about all the new ships. “Of
course, the orderbook right now is certainly a bit on the high side,” he
said. “But on the other hand, in the years before 2020, we were
underinvesting in this industry and the orderbook was actually too small.
Habben Jansen 听起来并不特别担心所有的新船
当然，现在的订单量肯定有点偏高，他表示
但另一方面，在 2020 年之前的几年里
我们对这个行业的投资不足，订单量实际上太少
“We’ll see how this pans out. I think scrapping [demolition of older ships]
will have to go up very significantly. We’ll also need to see whether
everything can be produced and delivered on time. We’re hearing the first
report of delays at some of the yards.”
我们将看到这个结果如何。
我认为报废(拆毁旧船)将不得不大幅增加
我们还需要看看是否一切都能按时生产和交付
我们收到了一些船厂延误的第一份报告
He continued, “We’re not going to have the tightness in capacity we had in
the last two years and having a little bit of a buffer is a good thing.
他继续说：我们不会有过去两年那样产能紧张，有一点缓冲是件好事
“What we saw in 2020 when demand came back with a vengeance was that there
was no slack in the system whatsoever. That’s why you had a lot of these
bottlenecks. As an industry, if we had slack in the system of 3%, 4%, 5%, that
would allow us to swiftly react if there were a peak and prevent some of the
things we saw in the last couple of years. It would give us the resilience we
need and help us reestablish the trust of our customers.”
我们在 2020 年看到的，当需求报复性地回来时
行业系统中没有任何的松弛
这就是为什么你有很多这样的瓶颈
作为一个行业，如果我们的系统有 3%、4%、5% 的松弛
这将使我们能够在出现高峰时迅速作出反应
并防止我们在过去几年中看到的一些情况。
这将给予我们所需的弹性并帮助我们重新建立客户的信任
Geopolitics and the China factor
地缘政治和中国因素
The Hapag-Lloyd panel discussion occurred at a particularly fraught time for
world trade and geopolitics. As the Ukraine-Russia war rages on, relations
between China and the U.S. continue to deteriorate. Companies are
reconsidering their import supply chains and their exposure to China.
赫伯罗特的小组讨论发生在世界贸易和地缘政治特别混乱的时候
随着乌克兰-俄罗斯战争的持续，中国和美国之间的关系继续恶化
公司正在重新考虑他们的进口供应炼和他们对中国的风险
Asked about the implications, Habben Jansen said: “Sourcing patterns will
change. People will do less single-sourcing. We see quite a lot of people
already going from China [only] to China-plus-one [alternate source] and China
-plus-two. Moving stuff to Vietnam, Indonesia, India, Turkey, Egypt and those
types of markets.”
在被问及相关影响时
Habben Jansen 说：采购模式将发生变化。
人们将减少单一的采购，我们看到很多人已经从中国(唯一)
转向中国加一(替代来源)和中国加二
把东西转移到越南、印尼、印度、土耳其、埃及和这些类型的市场
The end of pandemic travel restrictions helps businesses diversify import
sourcing, he said. “In 2021, you couldn’t travel to see your new sourcing
partner or your new manufacturing plant. There’s a hesitancy to take that
decision based on a [Microsoft] Teams meeting alone.
他说，大流行病旅行限制的结束有助于企业实现进口来源的多样化
在 2021 年，你不能去看你的新采购伙伴或你的新制造工厂
仅能根据一个(微软)团队会议就做出这样的决定
人们会感到犹豫不决
“We are going to see more diversification and nearshoring,” he predicted.
But he also emphasized that this will not happen overnight.
他预测说：我们将看到更多的多样化和近岸化
但他也强调，这不会在一夜之间发生
“There is a reason that most of the biggest ports are in China, and I don’t
think that’s going to change anytime soon. These changes in the setups of
supply chains go slowly. It can take a lot of time before you can really make
it happen. There were people talking about de-risking from China 10 years ago.
”
大多数最大的港口在中国是有原因的
我认为这不会很快改变，供应链设置的这些变化是缓慢的
在你能真正实现它之前，可能需要很多时间
10 年前就有人在谈论从中国去掉风险的问题