楼主:
zzahoward (Cheshire Cat)
2022-09-03 18:57:16原文标题：
Euro zone inflation hits another record of 9.1% as food and energy prices soar
原文连结：
https://tinyurl.com/2p9hdd3f
发布时间：
WED, AUG 31 20225:07 AM EDT
记者署名：
Hannah Ward-Glenton
原文内容：
Euro zone inflation hit a new record high in August of 9.1%, according to
flash figures from Europe’s statistics office Eurostat, with high energy
prices the main driving force.
根据欧盟官方统计，欧元区通膨率在八月达到历史新高的9.1%，主因是能源价格
The rate was above expectations, with a Reuters poll of economists
anticipating a rate of 9%. It is the ninth consecutive record for consumer
price rises in the region, with the climb starting back in November 2021.
Headline inflation in the euro zone hit 8.9% (year-on-year) in July.
这比之前预期的还高，之前路透社的经济学家认为应该会落在9%。
这是整个欧元区消费者物价指数从去年十一月开始连续九个月上涨
七月的YoY通膨率为8.9%
Energy had the highest annual inflation rate at 38.3%, Eurostat said
Wednesday, down slightly from 39.6% in July. Food, alcohol and tobacco were
up 10.6% compared to 9.8% in July, with the knock-on effects of recent
heatwaves across the continent contributing to increases.
欧盟官方统计表示能源通膨指数为38.3%，比七月的39.6%稍低
食物、酒精和菸草为10.6%，比七月9.8%稍高，主因是非洲热浪带来的影响
Non-energy industrial goods, such as clothing, household appliances and cars
were up 5% compared to last year, a 0.5 percentage point increase on last
month, while services were up by 3.8% in price year-on-year, 0.1 percentage
points more than in July.
服装、家电、汽车和非能源工业产品通膨5%，比上个月多了0.5%
服务通膨为3.8%，比七月高0.1%
French and Spanish inflation slows
法国和西班牙通膨减缓
Drilling down into national figures, the French inflation rate decreased to
6.5% in August, down from 6.8% in July. The rate was lower than expectations,
with economists polled by Reuters having anticipated a drop to 6.7%.
从各国来看，法国通膨从七月的6.8%下降至八月的6.5%，比预期还低
路透社之前估计为6.7%
Spain also released slowing inflation figures for August, at 10.3%
year-on-year compared to 10.7% for July, according to the Eurostat flash
estimate.
西班牙八月通膨也下降至10.3%，七月为10.7%
Meanwhile, the region’s largest economy, Germany, saw inflation reach its
highest level in almost half a century at 8.8% year-on-year in August.
德国则是在八月迎来来到半世纪以来最高的8.8%
Estonia currently has the highest inflation rate in the euro zone at 25.2%,
followed by Lithuania (21.1%) and Latvia (20.8%). Malta and Finland follow
France with the lowest inflation rates, at 7.1% and 7.6% respectively.
爱沙尼亚在整个欧盟区通膨排名第一为25.2%，其次是立陶宛(21.1%)和拉脱维亚(20.8%)
马耳他以及芬兰有欧盟区最低的通膨率，仅在法国之后为7.1%和7.6%
The ECB ‘has some catching up to do’
欧盟央行"还需要加把劲"
Inflation continues to hit new records just as the European Central Bank
mulls another large interest rate hike for next month.
欧盟央行考虑下个月继续大幅升息时，通膨依然在肆虐达到新高
The ECB increased interest rates by 50 basis points to zero on July 21 – its
first rate hike in 11 years – and a similar, or larger, hike is now expected
on Sept. 8.
欧盟央行在7/21升息0.5%让基准利率来到0 - 这是11年来首次
另一次同样规模等级的升息预计会在9/8
“Some members are inclined to advocate a 75 basis points interest rate
increase,” Peter Schaffrik, global macro strategist at RBC Capital Markets,
told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Wednesday.
Peter Schaffrik，RBC资本全球总经策略师告诉CNBC "有些成员倾向升息0.75%"
“Despite the slowdown in the economy that we will almost certainly be
getting, the central banks won’t let up on their hiking path,” he said.
"尽管已经确定将会对经济成长造成影响，但央行绝对不会放弃升息"
The outlook for Europe’s economy is “pretty bleak,” Kenneth Wattret, head
of economics at S&P Global Market Intelligence, told CNBC’s “Street Signs
Europe” on Aug. 23.
S&P 全球市场分析师Kenneth Wattret表示:
"欧元区经济将会非常惨淡"
心得/评论：
整体来说，整个欧盟/欧元区受伤最大的将会是东欧
1. 升息将会大大冲击发展中的东欧经济体
2. 目前通膨最严重的就是波海三小国和东欧如捷克等等
3. 不知道各位有没有注意到，西欧运用一些手段进行保护主义
其中最狠的就是即将新上路的最低工资法案
内容就是该国的最低薪资将会是平均薪资的50%或是中位数的60%
这将会对德法等国有更强的磁吸效应，而东欧将面临严重的人才流失
未来三年内的能源通膨+人才流失，会让东欧目前工厂大量裁员
4. 挪威因为干旱，大量水力发电减产所以也减少出口，目前出口的电力也越来越少
而挪威出口电力的价格目前是欧洲最亲民的能源了XDDDD
5. 除了欧元区外，英国已经直接对冬天为了供暖做出停电演练
英国是目前欧洲能源危机中最高机率能源崩盘的地区
6. 在2026卡达和美国新天然气矿场开采前，欧洲都不会看到正常的天然气价格
7. 目前中国因为各种封城和停产，天然气需求还没开到疫情前的水准
一旦中国也加入LNG争夺战，情况会更加白热化
8. 目前TTF 天然气现货价格为340欧/MWh，是疫情前价格的16倍
2026年Q1 TTF远期价格甚至还在85欧/MWh，依然是过去常态的4倍左右
2023年目前的TTF期货价格为240欧/MWh
LNG争夺战在所有学者和经济学家估计2026年前会持续进行