原文标题：
BofA: ECB to Hike 50bp in July, Sept but Could Raise Eurozone Fragmentation Ri
sks
原文连结：
pound sterling live
https://reurl.cc/A7DXVY
发布时间：
08 June 2022
记者署名：
Gary Howes
原文内容：
（不负责任翻译）
The European Central Bank will raise its key Deposit Rate well above 0% before
the year is done, but this risks raising Eurozone fragmentation risks warns B
ank of America.
欧洲中央银行将在年底前将其主要存款利率提高至远高于 0%，但美国银行警告称，这可
能会增加欧元区分裂的风险。
In a new research note BofA say it now sees a cumulative 150 basis points of D
eposit Rate hikes this year, up 50bp on their previous assumptions.
他们认为 7 月和 9 月将出现 50 个基点的大幅波动，这比市场共识更为鹰派，市场共识
目前预计 7 月将出现更谨慎的 25 个基点。
They see sizeable 50bp moves in both July and September which is more hawkish
than the market consensus which currently anticipates a more cautious 25bp mov
e in July.
"Our call was already more hawkish than consensus, and is even more so now," s
ays Ruben Segura-Cayuela, Europe Economist at BofA Europe in Madrid. "We can't
see the ECB avoiding a 50bp move by September, at the latest."
Such a surprise could boost Euro exchange rates initially, but "we continue to
worry this is too much too fast," says Segura-Cayuela.
这样的惊喜最初可能会提振欧元汇率，但“我们仍然担心这太快了，”Segura-Cayuela
说。
Indeed, BofA's economist team describe themselves as "bears with a hawkish ECB
call" in a recent note that comes days ahead of the ECB's June policy update,
due Thursday 09.
The policy update should see the ECB confirm an end to its quantitative easing
programme while confirming a first rate hike in July.
ECB 7月升息市场预期稳稳的
https://i.imgur.com/rzJUl1i.jpg
（美银对ECB升息预测）
But the haste to tackle inflation could mean Eurozone fragmentation risks rise
quickly, "with Italy in the spotlight," says Segura-Cayuela.
美银欧洲研究部门头头：
急于应对通膨，将导致欧元区分裂风险提高，尤其意大利
"To be completely clear, we still don't understand the ECB's rush. We are self
-declared macro bears, because we don't really understand how the economy can
go through a very large energy price shock unscathed in the first place, never
mind how the economy is supposed to cope with neutral rates when it is so far
away from equilibrium. Hence we expect the central bank to be stopped out by
the economy after all these hikes this year," he explains.
我们看空总体经济，因为不了解ECB如何在能源高涨的情况下，升息又不伤害经济，因此
，预期ECB今年后升息的想法会被经济阻止
Nevertheless BofA have taken on board the reasoning of various members of the
ECB's Governing Council of late, including that of President Christine Lagarde
.
The ECB has made clear it wants to be seen to act against inflation and to lea
n against the risk of second round effects proactively.
ECB：会积极应对通膨，及升息之后产生的影响
Eurozone inflation reached 8.1% in May 2022, up from 7.4% in April 2022.
But BofA is concerned that raising interest rates rapidly would put unnecessar
y upward pressure on the so-called peripheral Eurozone countries such as Greec
e and Italy.
They already pay more than the likes of Germany and France on their sovereign
debt and higher ECB rate hikes will inevitably push up their funding costs fur
ther.
认为欧猪利息已经付很多融资成本，未来付更多撑不住
The risk is the rise in funding costs for these countries becomes disorderly a
nd sparks a fresh crisis.
"Just because the ECB doesn't address fragmentation risks doesn't mean they do
n't exist," says Segura-Cayuela. "The frequency of Italian debt sustainability
questions is rising again".
欧猪国家债务危机恐怕重演
Furthermore, the analyst says markets are not adequately considering the prosp
ects of a Eurozone recession, "we have the impression that recession risks are
much more readily acknowledged in the US than in the Euro area".
比起美国的衰退，欧元区的衰退风险，市场还没纳入考量
"To us, the Euro area risks seem much more elevated. Our part of the world has
to cope with very high food and energy price inflation, a real household inco
me squeeze close to 4% this year (more than during the Euro area crisis), unce
rtainty from the war in Ukraine, demand weakness and supply bottlenecks in Chi
na, slowing growth in the US and the UK, and the upcoming monetary policy tigh
tening," says Segura-Cayuela.
美银：
我们认为欧元区的问题更大，乌俄战争、食品能源通膨高涨，经济衰退风险、紧缩的货币
政策、供应链问题、家庭购买力下滑
What is the answer to the headache the Eurozone economy faces?
More fiscal support is the answer suggested by Segura-Cayuela. "Headwinds come
from all sides, and fiscal policy, for now, is doing too little to compensate
."
BofA suggests a more cautious approach to fiscal policy tools could prevail, i
n anticipation of higher funding costs on the back of monetary policy tighteni
ng.
A shift in the economic landscape will meanwhile prompt the ECB to put the bra
kes on its rate hiking ambition in 2023.
"We are bearish on the macro outlook and we think their hiking-cycle ambitions
are likely to get stopped out in 2023," says Segura-Cayuela.
我们看空欧洲经济前景，并且2023年ECB应该不太敢继续升息，因为经济变差
心得/评论：
简单讲，ECB自从欧债危机起，实施负利率多年，收了一堆欧猪国债，勉强撑了下去。
而这波欧洲通膨很夸张，各国财长不爽、民怨四起，虽然行长Lagarde鸽了很久，不敢像
美国一样鹰，但目前市场预期7-9月开始升息、缩减购债。
但ECB资产负债表，已比起欧债当年膨胀更多
升息后欧洲比较弱的经济体，如希腊、意大利债券，虽然意大利去年底已变成净债权国，
但国内经济拉不起来，违约可能性大幅攀高.....
ECB既要打通膨、又得防止欧猪爆炸
第二波欧债危机爆发疑云再起。
几张图供参：
1.义德bond spread也变高
https://i.imgur.com/eQo0mTI.jpg
2.希腊意大利债务GDP比加重
https://i.imgur.com/Uqgda68.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/kZ8QO7d.jpg
3.意大利bond yield飙升
https://i.imgur.com/QKrZcpH.jpg