1. 标题：2023年及其之后：运力、运费，以及海运市场的展望
2. 来源：MoreThanShipping
3. 网址：https://reurl.cc/zMjoQk
4. 内文：
今天在网上闲逛，
看到海事咨询公司SeaIntelligence执行长Lars Jensen
2月份一篇预测2023年后海运市场的文章，
觉得很有意思，随手译出分享给股板乡民。
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2023 and Beyond:
What to Expect for Shipping, Rates, and Deliverability
2023年及其之后：运力、运费，以及海运市场的展望
The current disruption in the supply chain obviously has everyone’s
attention. However, the current situation is not permanent, and the
pandemic-induced bottlenecks in the system will eventually work themselves
out. Hence, it is prudent to contemplate the nature of the market in 2023 and
beyond already now, especially since some shippers are already negotiating
freight contracts stretching for both two and three years.
近来，明眼人都注意到全球供应链面临的困境。然而，因疫情导致的供应链瓶颈并不会永
久存续而终将被解决。因此，那些眼光长远的人此时将开始思索：2023年以及之后的海
运市场，将会是什么光景？有些发货业者甚至已开始签订两至三年的海运长约。
Basically, there are elements in the market right now which are temporary,
and there are elements which will lead to permanent changes. Let us start by
contemplating the more temporary elements.
市场上的变量大致可分为暂时性的，
和那些导致深远后果的因子。
我们不妨先探讨那些暂时性的因素。
First of all, there is the issue of the bottleneck problems globally.
Bottlenecks have been caused by a variety of factors such as major surges in
demand, ports closures, blockage of the Suez Canal, shortages of truck and
chassis, shortage of labor due to Covid-19, etc. Whilst these problems loom
large presently they will eventually be resolved. Global demand in 2021 was
only 5-6% higher than in 2019. This means that the amount of ships and
containers in the world is not a major problem. The major problem is the port
and hinterland congestion tying up these assets for far too long. As the
inland logistics problems gradually get resolved, the operations will come
back to normal.
第一、造成全球供应链瓶颈的因素大致可归纳如下：
货运需求骤升、港口壅塞、苏伊士运河阻塞、卡车及车架短缺、港口工人染疫…等等。
但这些短期负面因子终将消弭。
在2021年，全球货运需求仅比2019年高出5至6%，
这表示货柜船的数量并非不足。
瓶颈主要来源还是来自塞港以及腹地货运不畅。
当物流问题解决，运输营运自然可回归正常。
Looking at the largest congestion for which there is solid data, namely the
labor disputes causing massive queues off the U.S. West Coast in 2015, it is
found that it will take at least 8-9 months before the supply chain can be
fully back to normality. And, given the high likelihood of additional
curveballs in 2022, it is more realistic to assume full normality is not
restored until we are into 2023.
回顾西岸港口在2015年的劳资纠纷，
大量数据表明，要让供应链复原，起码需时8至9个月。
若再加上2022年可能发生的“天有不测风云”事件，
合理预估海运市场能回归正常的时间，
大概落在2023年。
But this also means that shippers need to plan from the perspective that 2022
is all about contingency planning just as we saw in 2021 – but from 2023 it
should increasingly be about gradually bringing their supply chains back into
a normal shape.
这也意谓著，托运人可以把2022年的海运市场当做2021年看待。
而2023年开始，供应链就会逐渐回归“正常”。
But this brings us to the second part, because what does “normal” mean in
this context?
但问题来了，所谓的“正常”是什么意思？
From an operational perspective shippers should expect schedule reliability
to revert back to pre-pandemic levels when it comes to vessels arriving on
time. However, there are two other operational elements which must be
carefully noted.
对托运人来说，这代表货柜准班率能回到疫情前的水准。
但还有两个因素必须留意。
One element is the prospect of sailing vessels slower.
第一、船舶行驶速度调降
Bunker fuel prices for low-sulphur fuel is setting new records these days and
match the peaks seen for old heavy fuel in 2012. Back then, carriers slowed
vessels down to alleviate the high fuel costs and this might well happen in
2023 as the bottlenecks are removed. Furthermore, 2023 sees the introduction
of new environmental legislation under IMO2023 rules. This forces shipping
lines to improve fuel efficiency of the individual vessels and can likely
also lead to more slow-steaming. Shippers might therefore experience that
reliability becomes normal, but transit times might be slightly longer than
the pre-pandemic normality.
近来，低硫燃料油的价格不断创高。
如同2012年重燃料油价格的飙涨，
当时船舶为了应对高额燃料费，不得不降速行驶。
而相同情形也会在2023年重演，
即使那时供应链瓶颈已疏缓。
而国际海事组织在2023年的环保规范
亦将迫使船舶降低航速以提升燃油使用效率。
托运人将会发现，
准班率可能回归正常，但货运航程将较疫情前费时更久。
The other element relates to blank sailings.
第二：空白航班
Right now, all blank sailings in the market are basically because the
carriers do not have the necessary vessels to deliver on their planned
schedules. In itself, this is caused by the bottlenecks. When the bottlenecks
are removed, blank sailings once more become a yield management tool for the
carriers. They were already beginning to do this to larger extent in 2018-19
and we saw how they used it with great effect in the spring of 2020 where
they managed to keep rates stable in the early phase of the pandemic where
demand suddenly dropped sharply. Shippers should therefore expect blank
sailings to be a normal part of the market in 2023.
现在全球的空白航班基本上都归因于港口壅塞。
当供应链瓶颈疏缓，空白航班将成为航商调整效率的工具。
可以注意到，航商在疫情前期的2018-2019年，需求大幅减少的时期，
已经使用空白航班维持运价稳定。
托运人会发现，2023年后空白航班将会是海运市场的新常态。
And this leads us, finally, to the freight rates.
最后，我们探讨运价将如何变化。
The current spot rates are dominated by the physical shortage of capacity due
to the bottlenecks. As this becomes better spot rates will start dropping,
but even in a “free fall” scenario a reversal to more normal levels will
likely take more than a year. And, what is the post-pandemic normality for
rates?
现在供应链的瓶颈，造就高昂的运价。
但就算运价开始下滑，回归到“正常”水平，
需时也将超过一年。况且，在后疫情时期，
“正常的运价”应该是什么水准？
Carriers have clearly learned over the past two years that many shippers,
especially on the consumer-heavy head haul trades, are fully capable of
paying thousands of dollars more than before 2020. Major cargo owners such as
Walmart, Home Depot, Target, etc. are all showing very good business results
for 2021 despite the supply chain problems. This shows quite clearly that a
substantial part of the market is capable of paying rates in line with late
2020/early 2021 and still have a fully viable business model. These larger
customers account for a larger proportion of the carriers’ capacity and
hence the carriers have little incentive to drop the rates below those levels.
过去2年，航商们都发现，像是沃尔玛(Walmart)、家得宝(Home Depot)、
目标百货(Target)等等大型客户，完全有能力支付高昂的运费
同时有着亮眼的营收。
这表示，货柜托运的买方完全有能力
在维持营运模式不变的前提下，负担现今的高运费。
加上，这些公司都是航运业者的主力客户，
因此，航商完全没有动机对运费做出调降。
At this point it must then be noted that the pandemic period, and especially
the past 12 months, has seen a rapid growth in the amount of new services
offered either by smaller existing carriers starting services in major
deep-sea trades or by entirely new carriers launched to offer services in
this highly challenging market. On top of that, we see some sailings being
offered by freight forwarders chartering own vessels or even cargo owners
chartering vessels.
值得注意的是，过去一年，许多现存的或新加入海运市场的
小型航商开始提供货柜托运服务。
尤有甚者，货运承揽业和货柜商也来分食这块大饼。
It could therefore be thought that this injection of new carriers – and
their capacity – would increase competition going forward and as a
consequence eventually force rates downwards. However, it is much more likely
that these are all temporary developments and they will disappear when the
market normalizes.
运力的注入导致更多竞争，而无可避免的将导致运价下跌。
但在市场回归“正常”后，这些新玩家很可能也将随之消失。
It is not difficult to start a profitable service in a market where freight
rates are in the $10-20,000 USD/FFE range. But when rates start to come down,
these newcomers will become squeezed on cost. Their vessels are often much
smaller and hence have higher unit costs and many have been chartered in 2021
where the charter rates have been in the range of 5-10 times more expensive
than before the pandemic. There have even been deals where vessels which went
for 10-15,000 USD/day before the pandemic has now been chartered at
100,000-250,000 USD/day.
在运费报价2万美金的时候，要赚钱当然很容易。
但是当运价开始下滑，特别是当集货船日租金达到
一天10万至25万美金的时候，将大大侵蚀这些新航商的获利空间，
他们的船只相对较小，单位营运成本当然也较高。
Therefore, when the market starts to come back to normal it is very likely
that rates will drop to a point where many of these newcomers are no longer
profitable and will have to leave the market again. Remember that we also saw
a range of newcomers surge into the market in 2010 as we had a very tight
market in the rebound after the financial crisis, but these services all went
away again when the bull run was over.
因此，当市场渐渐回归正轨，
运费终将达到这些新手无法负荷营运的水位，
而必须退出市场。
就像在2010年，当海运牛市结束后，新手航商只能黯然离开。
Hence, all in all, shippers should start preparing for the outlook that 2023
and beyond may well see operational performance restored, albeit with longer
transit times and more blank sailings, but they also need to plan in such a
way that their business models are robust in an environment where rates are
permanently at levels seen in late 2020 or early 2021 – and those levels
were substantially higher than in 2019.
这就表示，货柜市场的买方将发现，
在2023年及其之后，货运船期将拉长，空白航班也会增多。
而这些需要货柜运输的公司
最好开始调整公司的体质以适应高昂的运费。
因为往后的运价，
将很可能被永久定锚在2020-2021年之间的水平了。