原文标题：木头姐 vs 老巴: 2022年谁会赢？
原文连结：https://ibit.ly/7Ffi
发布时间：2022/01/25
原文内容：
(最近有许多再度押注ARK的人 转来这篇给有兴趣的参考 不喜请直接左转即可)
Cathie Wood vs. Warren Buffett: Who Will Win in 2022?
木头姐 vs 老巴: 2022年谁会赢？
Cathie Wood's Ark Innovation exchange-traded fund soared in 2020 thanks to
its focus on technology and growth stocks. But now Berkshire Hathaway is
gaining on ARKK.
方舟创新 ETF 在2020年飙升,这要归功于它对科技和成长型股票的关注.但是现在波克夏
·海瑟威公司正在超越 ARKK.
Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood specializes in finding high-growth technology
stocks. Her Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK) - Get ARK Innovation ETF Report soared
in 2020 as tech companies like Tesla (TSLA) - Get Tesla Inc Report made huge
gains.
方舟投资首席执行官木头姐专门寻找高增长的科技股.她的方舟创新 ETF (ARKK)
在2020年飙升的科技公司,如特斯拉(TSLA)取得了巨大的收益.
However, high-growth tech stocks have fallen out of favor in recent months.
With potential Federal Reserve interest rate hikes on the horizon, investors
are looking for safety, rather than volatility. They're becoming wary of
growth stocks, whose valuations are often stretched.
然而,高增长的科技股在最近几个月已经失宠.随着美联储(fed)加息的可能性即将出现,投
资者正在寻找安全性,而非波动性.他们开始警惕成长型股票,因为它们的估值经常过高.
With such a shift in investor mindset, it's no surprise that Warren Buffett's
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) - Get Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class A Report is
on the rise. Buffett is a dyed-in-the-wool value investor. Through his
holding company, he invests only in companies with strong fundamentals and
earnings potential.
随着投资者思维模式的转变,投资人不意外的把目光转向老巴的波克夏·海瑟威(BRK.A
巴菲特是一个彻头彻尾的价值投资者.通过他的控股公司,他只投资于基本面和盈利潜力
强劲的公司.
Ark Innovation: Shoot for the Moon
方舟创新: 射向月球
A year ago, super-investor Cathie Wood and her Ark Innovation fund were the
toast of Wall Street. The ETF had gained roughly 170% since the start of the
pandemic.
一年前,超级投资者木头姐(Cathie Wood)和她的方舟创新基金(Ark Innovation fund)还
是华尔街的宠儿.自大流行开始以来,ETF 已经上涨了大约170% .
But since reaching an all-time high in February 2021, the ARK Innovation ETF
has fallen more than 54%. The ETF hit a fresh 52-week low around $71 per
share on January 21.
但自2021年2月创下历史新高以来,ARK 创新 ETF 已下跌逾54% .1月21日,该 ETF 触及每
股约71美元的52周新低.
https://i.imgur.com/MqHmM2U.png
Figure 2: ARKK vs. SPY performance.
图2: ARKK vs. SPY
Besides Tesla, two of ARKK's top holdings were pandemic-era plays. Zoom (ZM)
- Get Zoom Video Communications, Inc. Class A Report was a pandemic darling
through the stay-at-home trend. And Teladoc's (TDOC) - Get Teladoc Health,
Inc. Report remote medical services also benefited greatly from the pandemic.
除了特斯拉之外,ARKK 持仓最大的两家公司都是疫情时期的公司.
Zoom(ZM)是通过居家办公时的宠儿.还有 Teladoc's (TDOC).
报告显示,远端医疗服务也从疫情中获益匪浅.
Now that doctor's offices are reopening and employees are returning to work,
these businesses — and their stocks — have fallen out of favor. And the
other growth stocks in the ARKK portfolio have been hurt by macroeconomic
uncertainty, impending interest rate hikes, and anti-risk investor sentiment.
现在,医生诊所重新开业,员工重返工作岗位,这些企业及其股票已经失宠.投资组合中的其
他成长型股票也受到宏观经济不确定性、即将到来的加息和反风险投资者情绪的影响.
But Cathie Wood's picks have great future potential. Even with their
valuations stretched in the short term, we can justify long-term investments.
Just don't look for them to repeat their historical peaks anytime soon.
但是木头姐的选择有着巨大的潜力.即使它们的估值在短期内有所偏高,我们也能证明长期
投资是合理的.只是不要指望他们在短期内重复他们的历史高峰.
Berkshire Hathaway: Get Rich Slowly
波克夏·海瑟威: 慢慢致富
It's hard to dispute the Berkshire Hathaway strategy. Led by 91-year-old
investing legend Warren Buffett, the holding company has had a successful
track record that shows little sign of stopping, even though it's
underperformed the benchmark since 2020.
我们很难对波克夏·海瑟威的战略提出异议.在91岁的投资传奇人物老巴(Warren
Buffett)的带领下,这家控股公司取得了成功的业绩记录,几乎没有停止的迹象,尽管该公
司自2020年以来的表现一直落后于基准指数.
https://i.imgur.com/h3GT9bO.png
Figure 3: BRK (red), SPY (purple) and ARKK (blue) performance.
图3: BRK (红色)、 SPY (紫色)和 ARKK (蓝色)
Apple (AAPL) — the world's largest company by market cap — is Berkshire
Hathaway's biggest holding, at nearly 50%. That's followed by Bank of America
(BAC) American Express (AXP) and Coca-Cola (KO) These are not growth stocks,
Instead, they are companies with solid fundamentals that pay dividends and have cash
to spare to generate value for shareholders.
苹果公司(AAPL)-世界市值最大的公司是波克夏·海瑟威最大的控股公司,持股比例接近
50% .其次是美国银行(BAC),美国运通(AXP),以及可口可乐(KO).这些不是成长型股票,相
反,它们是拥有稳健基本面的公司,支付股息,并有闲置现金为股东创造价值.
Throughout the years, Buffett has been also a strong bull on the American
economy. Thanks to his decades of experience, he is able to see the U.S.
economy's resilience and strength — compared to other economies around the
globe — as a key to his successful investing track record.
多年来,巴菲特一直是美国经济的强劲看涨者.由于他几十年的经验,他能够将美国经济的
弹性和实力(与全球其它经济体相比)视为他成功投资记录的关键.
Buffett believes that long-term growth in companies with solid fundamentals
will inevitably generate value for their investors in different market
cycles. Some of his notorious quotes, such as “Someone is sitting in the
shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago” and
“If you aren’t willing to own a stock for 10 years, don’t even think about
owning it for 10 minutes,” reinforces his long-term view.
巴菲特认为,在不同的市场周期中,基本面稳健的公司的长期增长将不可避免地为投资者创
造价值.他的一些名言,比如"今天有人坐在树荫下,因为很久以前有人种了一棵树”,
"如果你不愿意持有一档股票10年,那么连10分钟不要持有”,强化了他的长期观点.
Wood vs. Buffett: Who's the Winner?
伍德 vs 巴菲特: 谁是赢家？
We'd say Warren Buffett is the winner here. He has managed to beat the market
in difficult times, even if he has underperformed the market during periods
of explosive growth.
我们会说老巴是这里的赢家.尽管在经济爆炸式增长时期表现不佳,但他还是设法在困难时
期击败了市场.
Cathie Wood's philosophy has many good points. But managing a high-risk
portfolio is like walking a tightrope without a net. Although the Ark
Innovation ETF has shown investors high rewards, it's not without high risk.
木头姐的哲学有许多优点.但是管理一个高风险的投资组合,就像是在没有防护的情况下
走钢丝.尽管方舟创新 ETF 已经向投资者展示了高回报,但它并非没有高风险.
(Disclaimers: this is not investment advice. The author may be long one or
more stocks mentioned in this report. Also, the article may contain affiliate
links. These partnerships do not influence editorial content. Thanks for
supporting Wall Street Memes)
(免责声明: 这不是投资建议.作者可以做多本报告中提到的一只或多档股票.此外,文章可
能包含会员连结.这些合作关系不会影响编辑内容.感谢你对华尔街文化基因的支持
心得/评论： ※必需填写满30字，无意义者板规处分
常有人说能活到最后的才是赢家.
虽然Wood过了风光的几年,但殒落使的投资人骂声连连.
也是有人看到了新的机遇,再度重燃对ARK的信心.
但诚如本文所说,要短期重返高峰有一定难度.并且有许多外在阻力(如SARK/总经展望)