===============先闲聊===============
本来想说总经没人喜欢看
而且FOMAC六、七、九月都召开会议
可是每次都说要观察要观察
说真的三个月很难有什么大便...大变化
可以预期这三次会议都不会有重大决策改变
所以我也没很认真看七月的会议纪录
遥想当年，教总经的教授说总经很难
不要以为你们这些大四的屁孩
上了半学期课就可以自称懂总经
所以默认考试顶标就是60分
不是老师只出满分60分的考卷
那是四题问答题，每题25分
老师会把你扣到不及格
(因为M1增加所以预期CPI上升?扣25分)
班平均好像是45分左右,也有考到7X分的
不过因为老师又说大四不当人
所以期末会把分数再加上去
对利率很在行的，可以去订阅the Banker期刊
年费只要台币十万元喔
以上题外话
===============正文===============
有关这次FOMAC会议纪录
有一些有趣的心得跟大家分享
先说结论
1.
对于专注Equity的我来说
本月起我认为重点已经不在于收不收债
而是关心全球疫情发展
Delta愈凶，疫苗打愈慢，抄底机会就愈大
(但，有底可抄就表示股市得先探底，+~表示欣喜)
2.
史诗级大泡泡有其基本面支撑
但泡泡总是会破
我觉得2022H2或2023Q2之前要做好准备(p.9)
======================================
然后是这次的会议纪录，
要按END的可以按了
首先在p.2
有关债市的变化被认为是缩债的提前反应，联准会注意到了
The manager turned first to a discussion of developments in financial
markets. Although there were notable moves in some asset prices over the
intermeeting period, overall financial conditions ended the period little
changed at historically accommodative levels. Market participants seemed to
interpret communications associated with the June FOMC meeting as signaling
a less accommodative path of monetary policy than had been anticipated.
Implied rates on interest rate futures initially rose following the meeting
but subsequently retraced, and expectations regarding the path of the target
federal funds rate over the next few years ended the period only modestly
changed.[...]
似乎市场认为Fed会提早缩债，或缩债力度会比预期大
但因为长期指标都是稳定的
所以对于市场解读董事会的说法
董事会没有进一步评论XD
后面董事会则反驳提早缩债或大力度收钱的说法
所以说QE is over的人你们的脸肿了吗?
关于ON RRP，是Fed的新技能
董事会认为这招还不错，成功的消弭短期因素
但很快的额度要满了
董事会认为可以考虑加码
同时也通过了新技能：SRF跟FIMA
泥坎坎泥坎坎
Fed有repo有ON RRP有SRF有FIMA可以用
时代不同了，不要只会债来债去息来息去的
在p.4
关于收债的时间表
Participants discussed aspects of the Federal Reserve’s asset purchases,
including progress made toward the Committee’s maximum-employment and
price-stability goals since the adoption of the asset purchase guidance in
December 2020. They also considered the question of how asset purchases might
be adjusted once eco-nomic conditions met the standards of that guidance.
Participants agreed that their discussion at this meeting would be helpful
background for the Committee’s future decisions about modifying asset
purchases. No decisions regarding future adjustments to asset purchases were
made at this meeting.
对，这次Fed才开始讨论要怎么缩债
Fed自己都还不知到债要怎么缩
但市场已经在预测缩债时间点
这段有两个重点
1.收债的时程表端赖两个指标:就业情况 & (长期)物价稳定
2.本次会议并未对未来缩债计画做出任何决定
在讨论中，Fed同意缩债计画对市场会有影响
甚至联准会的一举一动都被市场高度解读
并警示这些影响可能会高于董事会的预期
所以缩债计画必须谨慎
说真的，我们只能期望
联准会的缩债计画不会跟阿富汗撤兵行动一样成功
至于1
Most participants judged that the Commit-tee’s standard of “substantial
further progress” toward the maximum-employment goal had not yet been met.
At the same time, most participants remarked that this standard had been
achieved with respect to the price stability goal.
董事会认为就业情况未达标
但物价稳定已经在掌控之中
在p.5董事会进行进了激烈的...意见交换
意见相当分歧，有兴趣的自己看
结论是
1.Fed在实行缩债时会致力稳定市场，避免市场剧烈波动
2.确定要做时Fed要给市场一个明确的讯号，避免上述情形发生
3.至于什么时候做，要再观察一段时间
p.6记述董事会对经济情况的review
关于物价部分和上次论述差不多
Q2 实质GDP成长率优于Q1
大非农很乐观，就业率已回复2/3
然而，但是，however
六月失业率仍维持在5.9%
此外
Available indicators suggested that growth in business fixed investment had
slowed sharply in the second quarter, reflecting disruptions to motor
vehicle production and aircraft deliveries and a faster rate of decline in
non-residential structures investment.
Growth in manufacturing output had picked up modestly in the second quarter.
Although production in the chemicals industry had rebounded from the
weather-related disruptions earlier in the year, the supply chain issues
faced by a number of other industries, particularly the motor vehicle
industry, continued to weigh on overall factory output.
其他的自己看
然后
Real goods imports in May retraced only a bit of their April decline, but
they were still at the second-highest level on record. Real goods exports
edged down in May and remained below pre-COVID-19 levels.
所以the World还是要美国人买买买来救经济
同时美国制造业还有成长空间
同时
Bottlenecks in the global semiconductor industry continued to weigh on
exports and imports of automotive products, and shipping congestion likely
continued to restrain trade overall. Although international travel recovered
further in May, exports and imports of services remained depressed relative
to pre-pandemic levels.
所以我猜这是先前二哥喷喷的原因
然后郭董大喜(至少for the next 12 months)
这里还有一个重点：
经济复苏的最后观察指标将是旅游服务业的复苏
结果7月旅游、航空业抖了一下害大家空欢喜一场
在p.7
The situation was quite different in some emerging market economies (EMEs)
whose low vaccination rates left them vulnerable to new waves of infections.
Although new COVID-19 cases fell dramatically in India after the surge in May
and June, the situation deteriorated markedly in several Southeast Asian
countries, whose cases and deaths rose to all-time highs. In addition, the
increased prevalence of new virus variants, particularly the Delta variant,
underscored the continued uncertainty about the foreign outlook. Inflation
rose further in most foreign economies, reflecting a reversal of price
declines seen in the spring of 2020, higher energy and commodity prices, and
supply bottlenecks.
所以经济复苏还得看疫苗覆蓋率跟Delta发展
which,目前来说,糟透了
接下来打脸有人说Fed不关心股票
Over the intermeeting period, fluctuations in financial markets appeared to
be driven by less-accommodative-than-expected June FOMC communications, a
reduction in investor perceptions of the risk of persistently high
inflation, increased concerns about the rapid spread of the Delta variant,
and stronger-than-anticipated inflation data. Longer-dated Treasury yields
fell, largely reflecting declines in real yields, while longer-horizon
forward measures of inflation compensation also declined. Domestic equity
prices rose moderately, and corporate bond spreads remained near the low end
of their historical ranges.
[...]
Broad stock market prices rose moderately over the in-termeeting period,
supported in part by some strong sec-ond-quarter earnings reports that
bolstered investor risk sentiment. However, some prices declined for stocks
that historically have moved more closely with economic conditions—such as
stocks for smaller companies and for firms in cyclical industries—as did
stock prices for firms in sectors such as airlines and hotels that were
negatively affected by the pandemic. Bank stock prices also fell. One-month
option-implied volatility on the S&P 500—the VIX—spiked to reach a
two-month high. For the intermeeting period as a whole, however, the VIX was
little changed, on net, and remained somewhat above its average pre-pandemic
levels.
所以我认为现在投资small cap风险会比较高
难怪女股神被唱衰
接下来Fed对ON RRP歌功颂德，我们先跳过
然后
Concerns about the worldwide spread of the Delta vari-ant weighed somewhat on
risk sentiment in global financial markets over the intermeeting period.
The dollar broadly appreciated, longer-term yields in major advanced foreign
economies decreased notably, and most major foreign equity indexes declined
moderately.
千万不要错过
Equity markets in China and Hong Kong underperformed notably amid increased
regulatory uncertainty in China.
联准会给陆港股补刀，哈哈UCCU
然后由于公司债减少，C&I也减少
尽管C&I有成长，但需求却远低于预期
因此似乎中小企业的经营仍严峻
且风险逐渐升高
p.9
The projection for U.S. economic activity prepared by the staff for the July
FOMC meeting was little changed,[...] at a rapid pace. For the year as a whole, therefore, real
GDP was projected to post a substantial increase, with a correspondingly
large decline in the unemployment rate. With the boost to spending growth
from continued reductions in social distancing assumed to fade after 2021
and with a further unwinding of the effects of fiscal stimulus, GDP growth
was expected to step down in 2022 and 2023. However, with monetary policy
assumed to remain highly accommodative, the staff continued to anticipate
that real GDP growth would outpace growth in potential output over most of
this period, leading to a decline in the unemployment rate to historically
low levels.
我画的是我认为未来观察和决策的重点
至于通膨
The staff’s near-term outlook for inflation was revised up further in
response to incoming data, but the staff continued to expect that this year’
s rise in inflation would prove to be transitory. The 12-month change in
total and core PCE prices was well above 2 percent in May, and available data
suggested that PCE price inflation would remain high in June. The staff
continued to judge that the surge in demand that had resulted as the economy
reopened further had combined with production bottlenecks and supply
constraints to boost recent monthly inflation rates. The staff expected the
12-month change in PCE prices to move down gradually over the second part of
2021, reflecting an anticipated moderation in monthly inflation rates and the
waning of base effects; even so, PCE price inflation was projected to be
running well above 2 percent at the end of the year. Over the following year,
the boost to consumer prices caused by supply issues was expected to partly
reverse, and import prices were expected to decelerate sharply; as a result,
PCE price inflation was expected to step down to a little below 2 percent in
2022 before additional increases in resource utilization raised it to 2
percent in 2023.
但，马司基表示:你不懂海运!
https://ctee.com.tw/news/industry/505223.html
p.10重点来了
The staff continued to judge that the risks to the baseline projection for
economic activity were skewed to the downside and that the uncertainty around
the forecast was elevated. In particular, the probability that the course of
the pandemic would turn out to be more adverse than the staff’s baseline
assumption was viewed tobe higher than the probability that a more favorable
outcome would occur.
In their discussion of current conditions, participants noted that, with
progress on vaccinations and strong policy support,[...]
Participants noted that the path of the economy would continue to depend on
the course of the virus. Progress on vaccinations would likely continue to
reduce the effects of the public health crisis on the economy,
but risks to the economic outlook remained.[...]
Economic growth was expected to remain strong over the second half of the
year, supported by the further reopening of the economy, accommodative
financial conditions, and easing of supply constraints. Nevertheless,
participants generally saw supply disruptions and labor shortages as likely
to persist over the second half of the year.
所以完全复苏还得仰赖
1.恢复全球旅行
2.稳定的金融市场
3.不塞港了
但我们看到
1.新西兰锁国
2.?
3.宁波封港
因此我认为时间表还得往后延
那就会是2022/03或2022Q3了
至于美国市场
In their discussion of the household sector, participants remarked that
consumer spending had continued to increase at a very rapid pace, supported
by the ongoing reopening of the economy along with the accommodation
provided by fiscal policy and monetary policy. In addition, the accumulated
stock of savings and further progress on vaccination were cited as important
factors lifting household spending.
我们都知道，支持美国经济(和世界经济)的
是美国人的消费力
由于疫情让美国人不能出门shopping
存了很多钱，只要疫苗赶快打完
美国人就能够出门报复性shopping
听说拜登要打第三剂，嗯哼。
但你说疫情要过去了吗?
With respect to the business sector, participants observed that activity in
the service industries most adversely affected by the pandemic, such as in
the leisure and hospitality sector, was rebounding as the economy reopened
further but had not fully recovered.
Corona-chan:Go s**k yourself! 凸皿凸
然后Fed指出新的危机：缺料和缺工
然后
Looking ahead, while participants generally expected inflation pressures to
ease as the effect of these transitory factors dissipated, several
participants remarked that larger-than-anticipated supply chain disruptions
and increases in input costs could sustain upward pressure on prices into
2022.
我也倾向这种看法
KMB表示欣喜
p.11再次重申
In discussing the uncertainty and risks associated with the economic outlook,
many participants remarked that uncertainty was quite high, with slowing in
progress on vaccinations and developments surrounding the Delta variant
posing downside risks to the economic outlook.
这就是我结论1的根据
接下来针对缩债的时间表
董事会又进行激烈的...意见交换
p.13
In their discussion of monetary policy for this meeting, members agreed that
with progress on vaccinations and strong policy support, indicators of
economic activity and employment had continued to strengthen.[...]
Inflation had risen, largely reflecting transitory factors. Overall financial
conditions remained accommodative, in part reflecting policy measures to
support the economy and the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses.
但是
In light of these developments, members decided to remove the
characterization of sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic as being
in a “weak” condition and to re-place it with the judgment that those
sectors “have not fully recovered.”
所以情况有变，但政策不变
同时
They also agreed to remove the word “significantly” when characterizing the
dependence of the path of the economy on the course of the virus. In
addition, members agreed to insert the assessment that “the economy has made
progress” toward the Commit-tee’s longer-run goals since the guidance on
asset pur-chases was first issued in December and to indicate that the
assessment of progress would continue in coming meetings.
============================================
以上报告