原文标题：
ARK Invest’s new Tesla Price Target includes $4 Trillion Market Cap, 10M
cars in 2025
ARK Invest的新特斯拉价格目标包括4兆美元的市值，2025年的1000万辆汽车销售量
原文连结：
https://reurl.cc/Xe2ZX0
发布时间：
Posted by Jason Cartwrighton March 20, 2021
原文内容：
Cathy Wood’s Ark Invest is famous for being bullish about Tesla. Ark Invest
has just released an update to their price target for Tesla in 2025 and it
includes a bull case where Tesla ships 10 million cars, autonomous robotaxis
and has a more than 25% chance of being worth more than 4 Trillion dollars.
Ark Invest’s updated forecast includes key updates to their model.
。We pushed our forecast price target forward one year to 2025.
。We refined our estimates for Tesla’s capital efficiency.
。We added Tesla’s insurance business to our model.
。We added assumptions for a human-driven ride-hail service.
。We increased the probability of Tesla achieving fully autonomous driving
within five years.
Naturally with all good funds, they set out a bear and bull case, which even
in the worst case has Tesla growing substantially to ship 5 million cars by
2025 and be worth almost 3x what they are now with a $1.5 Trillion market cap
and share price.
To give you some perspective, Apple has a 2.01T market cap today and Amazon
is at 1.55T.
https://i.imgur.com/YpPrYG1.jpg
Ark breaks down their model with a number of key inputs.
While Elon has predicted around 50% annual growth rate, Ark clearly thinks
Elon is sandbagging with predictions that could be somewhere between 65 and
90%.
When it comes to the autonomous story for Tesla, executing makes up a
significant portion of the predicted growth of the company. While Musk has
never confirmed an interim step of having Uber-style competitor of a
human-driven ride-hailing service, Ark, clearly thinks they should.
Ark Invest’s new model has Tesla earning as much as $20 Billion in operating
profit by 2025 as a bull case. Personally I think the likelyhood of this
occurring is incredibly low, with any potential revenue opportunity being
offset by a distraction to the larger mission of replacing drivers completely
and making our roads safer.
With much debate about the FSD Beta lately, it’s hard to deny that the
videos shared online show the promise of the technology and Ark are clearly
seeing a massive uptick in adoption, once the technology (and regulation) are
ready to go. The take rate for FSD currently isn’t great, possibly around
10%, while Ark predicts around 60% of Tesla vehicles will be using it in 2025.
As bold as these numbers sound from Ark, it’s important to realise these do
not include all Tesla operations, with a disclaimer at the bottom of the post.
Note: We do not model Tesla’s utility energy storage or solar business in
our models. We also have not modeled bitcoin assumptions in our model.
Read the full report on Ark Invest.
https://ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/tesla-price-target-2/
机翻如下：
凯茜·伍德（Cathy Wood）的方舟投资公司（Ark Invest）以对特斯拉看好而闻名。 方
舟投资公司（Ark Invest）刚刚发布了特斯拉2025年目标价格的更新，其中包括牛市，特
斯拉出货量为1000万辆汽车，自动机器人，并有超过25％的机会价值超过4兆美元。
Ark Invest的更新预测包括对其模型的关键更新。
我们将预测价格目标提前一年到2025年。
我们完善了对特斯拉资本效率的估计。
我们将特斯拉的保险业务添加到了我们的模型中。
我们增加了人为驱动的叫车服务的假设。
我们增加了特斯拉在五年内实现全自动驾驶的可能性。
自然而然地如所有好的基金，他们设定了空头和牛市，即使在最坏的情况下，特斯拉也将
大幅增长，到2025年将出货500万辆汽车，市值和股票市值达到1.5兆美元，其市值几乎是
现在的三倍 。
为了给您一些比较，今天苹果的市值为2.01T，而亚马逊的市值为1.55T。
https://i.imgur.com/YpPrYG1.jpg
方舟会通过许多关键输入细分他们的模型。
虽然Elon预测年增长率约为50％，但Ark显然认为Elon的预测可能在65％至90％之间。
当谈到特斯拉的自主故事时，执行是公司预测增长的重要组成部分。 尽管Musk从未证实
过要让Uber式竞争对手提供以人为本的乘车服务的过渡步骤，但Ark显然认为他们应该这
样做。
方舟投资公司（Ark Invest）的新模型使特斯拉到2025年的营业利润高达200亿美元。 我
个人认为发生这种情况的可能性非常低，任何潜在的收入机会都可以被完全取代驾驶员和
使我们的道路更安全的更大使命所分散。
最近，人们对FSD Beta进行了许多辩论，因此，很难否认在线共享的影片显示了该技术的
前景，一旦技术（和法规）准备就绪，方舟显然会看到采用率的急剧上升。 目前，FSD的
使用率并不理想，可能约为10％，而Ark预测，到2025年将有60％的特斯拉车辆在使用它
。
正如Ark所说的那样大胆，重要的是要意识到这些不包括特斯拉的所有业务，在文章的底
部有一个免责声明。
注意：我们不会在模型中对Tesla的公用事业储能或太阳能业务进行建模。 我们还没有在
模型中对比特币假设进行建模。
心得/评论：
一如既往地看得非常好
不过这次的估值不包括比特币和能源事业
不谈虚幻的比特币
能源的部分，Elon Musk本身在未来看得非常高，甚至比电车还高。
基本估到3000，熊市1500，牛市4000
应该说变保守了其实