原文标题：
New Challenge For The Powell Fed: A Strengthening Economy
原文连结：
https://reurl.cc/3NbMY8
发布时间：
Wednesday, March 17th 2021, 9:54 am
原文内容：
WASHINGTON (AP) — For the past year, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has
expressed a wish for more rescue spending from Congress, better control of
the viral pandemic and clear evidence of an improving economy.
He’s finally getting all three. Yet all of that hardly makes Powell’s job
easier.
At the Fed’s policy meeting this week and at a news conference to follow,
the chair will take up a new challenge: Convincing financial markets that
even as the economic picture brightens, the Fed will be able to continue
providing support without contributing to high inflation. Powell’s message
will likely be that the economy still needs substantial backing from the Fed
in the form of short-term interest rates near zero and bond purchases that
are intended to lower long-term borrowing rates.
Complicating the Fed’s task is that investors envision a swift and robust
recovery later this year that could accelerate inflation and send long-term
rates surging. Behind that fear is the belief that as vaccines are more
widely administered and money from President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion
rescue package flows through the economy, growth will accelerate so fast that
the Fed will feel compelled to quickly raise rates to quell inflation
pressures. If that were to happen, the economy could suffer another setback.
The economy’s outlook has improved significantly since the Fed’s
policymaking committee last met in late January. Job gains accelerated in
February, sales at retail stores jumped after $600 relief checks were
distributed at the start of the year and Biden signed his economic relief
package into law last week.
The stronger outlook has sent the yield on the 10-year Treasury note climbing
as investors have dumped bonds, which are typically safe-haven investments
during downturns. The yield on the 10-year reached 1.62% in afternoon trading
Friday; it had been below 1% at the end of last year. The rise in the 10-year
yield in recent weeks “caught my attention,” Powell acknowledged earlier
this month.
In anticipation of faster growth and inflation, investors have priced in at
least three Fed rate hikes by 2023 — a much earlier lift-off than the Fed
itself has forecast. In December, the central bank’s policymakers
collectively projected that they wouldn’t begin raising rates until at least
2024.
Seeking to reassure investors, Fed officials have said they regard the rise
in the 10-year yield as a positive sign, evidence that the financial markets
expect the economy to steadily strengthen. Many economists agree.
“Markets are responding to the ongoing, and accelerating, recovery,” said
Lewis Alexander, an economist at the investment bank Nomura. “In many
respects, the Fed is dealing with the problems of success.”
But if longer-term rates rise too high, the economy could suffer as borrowing
becomes more expensive for consumers and businesses. The average rate on a
30-year fixed mortgage, for example, has topped 3% after having set a record
low of 2.65% as recently as early January. Mortgage rates could price out
some would-be home buyers if they go too high.
When the Fed’s meeting ends Wednesday, much attention will focus on the
release of its updated economic and interest rate projections. The central
bank issued its most recent projections in mid-December, before it was clear
whether Congress would approve a $900 billion rescue package or how much more
federal aid Biden would manage to enact. Since then, roughly $2.8 trillion in
economic relief has been approved.
Average daily COVID infections have also dropped precipitously, and
vaccinations have accelerated. As a consequence, Fed officials will likely
boost their projections for economic growth for this year and for 2022, lower
their estimates for unemployment and raise their expectations for inflation.
Fed officials may project economic growth this year of as much as 5%,
economists say, up from their December estimate of 4.2%. After a 3.5%
contraction in 2020, many private-sector analysts are forecasting growth of
roughly 7% this year. That would be the fastest calendar-year U.S. expansion
since 1984.
Acknowledging those improvements could make it harder for the Fed to convince
financial markets that it will remain “patient” about raising rates, as
Powell has stressed in recent weeks.
In his news conference, Powell will likely focus on the persistent weakness
in the job market. There are 9.5 million fewer jobs than there were just
before the pandemic erupted a year ago. That is more jobs than were lost in
the 2008-2009 Great Recession.
The unemployment rate, at 6.2%, is far below the 14.8% peak reached last
April. But Fed officials often cite an alternative measure that includes
people who are out of work but aren’t looking for a job and so aren’t
counted as unemployed. That figure is roughly 9.5%.
One option for Powell would be to discuss financial tools the Fed could use
if longer-term rates rose so quickly that they could threaten the economy’s
health. The Fed could shift more of its monthly purchases of Treasurys to
longer-term securities, such as 10-year notes, while cutting back on its
short-term bond buys.
Or Powell could consider buying more overall government securities, with the
additional purchases focused on longer-term bonds. That’s what Christine
Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, said last week she would do.
“Financial markets are looking for action here, not words,” said Joe
Brusuelas, chief economist at tax and advisory firm RSM. “Powell’s in a
difficult situation.”
Brusuelas suggested that Powell might be able to allay any concerns just by
mentioning the Fed’s additional tools, without having to implement them.
Some economists expect the Fed to project that its next rate hike could occur
by the end of 2023, earlier than they forecast in December. That move would
reflect the improved economic outlook.
But it doesn’t necessarily mean the Fed will discuss any new steps, said
William English, a former senior Fed official and finance professor at the
Yale School of Management.
With the economy improving, “it would be a strange thing to react to that”
by taking further steps to keep rates low, he said.
机翻如下：
华盛顿（美联社）-在过去的一年中，美联储主席杰罗姆‧鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）表示
希望从国会获得更多的救助支出，更好地控制病毒性大流行，并明确证明经济正在改善。
他终于得到了全部三个。然而，所有这些几乎都不会使鲍威尔的工作变得容易。
在本周美联储的政策会议以及随后的新闻发布会上，主席将面临一个新的挑战：说服金融
市场，即使经济形势好转，美联储也将能够继续提供支持，而不会助长高通胀。鲍威尔传
达的信息可能是，美国经济仍需要美联储的大力支持，例如短期利率接近于零以及购买债
券以降低长期借贷利率。
使美联储的任务复杂化的是，投资者预计今年晚些时候将迅速而强劲地复苏，这可能会加
速通货膨胀并导致长期利率飙升。在人们担心的背后，是人们相信，随着疫苗的管理更加
广泛，以及总统拜登（Joe Biden）1.9万亿美元的救助计划中的资金流向经济，增长将如
此之快，以至于美联储将被迫迅速提高利率以平息通货膨胀压力。如果发生这种情况，经
济可能会遭受另一次挫折。
自美联储决策委员会上次于1月下旬举行会议以来，经济前景已显著改善。 2月份工作机
会加速增长，在年初分配了600美元的救济支票后，零售商店的销售额猛增，拜登上周将
其经济救济方案签署为法律。
由于投资者抛售了债券（通常是低迷时期的避险投资），强劲的前景使10年期美国国债收
益率攀升。周五下午的交易中，十年期收益率达到1.62％。到去年底，这一比例还不到1
％。鲍威尔本月早些时候承认，最近几周10年期国债收益率的上涨“引起了我的注意”。
由于预期经济增长和通货膨胀会更快，投资者已经预计到2023年美联储至少要加息三次，
这比美联储本身的预测要早得多。去年12月，中央银行的政策制定者集体预测，他们至少
要到2024年才会开始加息。
美联储官员表示，为使投资者放心，他们认为十年期国债收益率的上升是一个积极信号，
这表明金融市场预计经济将稳步增长。许多经济学家都同意。
投资银行野村证券（Nomura）的经济学家刘易斯‧亚历山大（Lewis Alexander）说：“
市场正在对持续的，加速的复苏做出反应。” “在许多方面，美联储正在处理成功的问
题。”
但是，如果长期利率升得太高，则经济可能会受到损害，因为藉款对消费者和企业而言变
得更加昂贵。例如，30年期固定抵押贷款的平均利率在1月初创下2.65％的历史新低之后
，已突破3％。如果抵押贷款利率过高，抵押贷款利率可能会使一些潜在的购房者付出高
昂的代价。
当美联储会议在星期三结束时，人们将把很多注意力集中在发布最新的经济和利率预测上
。中央银行在12月中旬发布了最新的预测，之后很明显国会是否会批准9000亿美元的一揽
子救助计划，或者拜登将设法颁布多少联邦援助。自那时以来，已经批准了大约2.8万亿
美元的经济救济。
平均每天的COVID感染也急剧下降，并且疫苗接种也在加速。结果，美联储官员可能会提
高对今年和2022年经济增长的预测，降低对失业的估计并提高对通胀的预期。
经济学家说，美联储官员可能预计今年的经济增长将高达5％，高于他们12月的4.2％的估
计。在2020年收缩3.5％之后，许多私营部门分析师预测今年的增长率约为7％。那将是自
1984年以来最快的日历年度美国扩张。
正如鲍威尔最近几周所强调的那样，承认这些改善可能会使美联储更难以说服金融市场相
信它将继续对加息保持“耐心”。
在他的新闻发布会上，鲍威尔很可能将重点放在就业市场的持续疲软上。与一年前大流行
爆发之前相比，工作岗位减少了950万。这比2008-2009年大萧条中失去的工作要多。
失业率为6.2％，远低于去年4月达到的14.8％的峰值。但美联储官员经常引用另一种措施
，其中包括失业但不找工作的人，因此不算作失业者。这个数字大约是9.5％。
鲍威尔的一种选择是讨论如果长期利率上升如此之快以至于可能威胁经济健康的美联储可
以使用的金融工具。美联储可以将其每月购买的美国国债的更多部分转移到诸如10年期债
券之类的长期证券上，同时减少其短期债券的购买。
或者鲍威尔可以考虑购买更多的整体政府证券，而额外的购买重点是长期债券。这就是欧
洲央行行长克里斯汀‧拉加德（Christine Lagarde）上周表示的话。
税务和咨询公司RSM的首席经济学家乔‧布鲁索拉斯（Joe Brusuelas）说：“金融市场正
在这里寻求行动，而不是言语。” “鲍威尔处境艰难。”
布鲁塞拉斯认为，鲍威尔只需提及美联储的其他工具，就可以减轻任何担忧，而不必实施
这些工具。
一些经济学家预计，美联储将在2023年底之前进行下一次加息，这比他们在12月的预测要
早。这一举动将反映出经济前景的改善。
耶鲁大学管理学院前美联储高级官员兼金融学教授威廉‧英语说，但这并不一定意味着美
联储将讨论任何新措施。
他说，随着经济的改善，采取进一步措施将利率保持在较低水平，“对此做出反应是一件
很奇怪的事情”。
心得/评论：
目前看到的谈论都有相当的共识
1.疫情正在好赚
2.经济正在复苏
3.联准会不想扯经济复苏的后腿
基于这样的认知基础上，很容易就会得到联准会对于控制利率的消极预期。
某个程度上来说，除非鲍威尔创造了很大的惊喜，否则重点在于市场解读而非说了什么。
个人认为市场可能会趁乱修正一波，玩玩上冲下洗的游戏。
基于这样的判断，个人认为本来就打算长抱的人无需过度惊慌，冲浪继续冲浪。