原文如下 懒得看的人 可直接看最后本人的不负责任翻译
PS: 虽然是4/24的消息 但是放到今天来看 状况还是一样
Goldman Sachs Expects Another Oil Price Crash
By ZeroHedge - Apr 24, 2020, 1:00 PM CDT
While it may be tempting to argue that the worst is behind us for oil price given the historic collapse in WTI which crashed to negative $40 on Monday as holders of May WTI futures panicked to sell their holdings at any price - even paying the "buyer" for taking possession of the deliverable barrels - Goldman's chief commodity strategist Jeffrey Currie reminds us that it is important to remember that unlike bonds and stocks, "commodities are spot assets, not anticipatory assets and must clear current
supply and demand, which still remain extremely out of balance in all markets."
And since oil supply remains vastly greater than demand, we are merely in the eye of the hurricane at least until the June WTI maturity in one month, with Goldman expecting the market to test global storage capacity in the next 3-4 weeks - unlike WTI which was merely a Cushing event - which will likely create substantial volatility with more spikes to the downside until supply finally equals demand, as with nowhere to store the oil, supply has no other option but to be shut-in down in-line with the
expected demand losses. Alternatively, we could see another "Monday massacre" with producers of oil willing to pay buyers to take physical possession right around the time all global capacity is full, unless of course US shale producers drastically cut output in the coming days, not weeks.
That's the bad news: the good news is that slowly the market is rebalancing, and once production is well and truly shuttered, there is a potential for a violent price reversal - but remember, one can't just "price it in" as commodities have to reprice through the spot, not forward channel. As Currie notes, "we have now entered the inflection phase where the rebalancing has started, but this period could take 4-8 weeks to resolve before we can comfortably argue a bottom has been carved out." This
timeline assumes that peak demand loss was likely last week with nascent restarts in Europe now underway, but as Goldman concedes substantial uncertainty still remains.
In conclusion, "while acknowledging that a balanced market is in eyesight, more forward-looking assets like equities can look past the next several weeks and begin to price a recovery; however, commodities simply do not have that luxury."
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Goldman-Sachs-Expects-Another-Oil-Price-Crash.html
个人心得 （不负责任翻译+个人心得）
之前的西德州原油走到负值 ，很多人认为最差的情况已经过了（理论上没办法比负值更差）所以开始抄底，
但是高盛首席分析师认为：油跟一般的股票 债卷完全不一样（现在股票就很明显跟现实经济脱钩），他就是很明白的供给跟需求关系
全球储存油的空间 大概3-4 礼拜就放不下了， 美国页岩油商一定要《马上》《大幅》减产
PS:高盛除了是跨国投资银行 也是美国国库证券的国债一级自营商，也是通常意义上的知名做市商 ，所以他并不希望看到美国油商倒闭
只要供给跟需求能到一个平衡 油价就有可能快速反转
如果一切都在掌控之内（达到平衡）那至少也要4-8礼拜
而且大家都知道有太多的不确定性因素
最后高盛又佛心的再提醒一次 ，这种大宗商品 跟 股票这种信心资产 完全是两码子事 一切要看市场真实情况