Coface : 科法斯
全球信用保险、风险管理及全球经济研究的指标机构。
原文出自coface自己网站发布
https://m.coface.com/News-Publications/News/Coface-Barometer-COVID-19-heading-towards-a-sudden-global-surge-in-business-insolvencies
以下贴出全文 并简单翻译重点
04/06/2020
COUNTRY RISK AND ECONOMIC STUDIES
COFACE BAROMETER: COVID-19 - HEADING TOWARDS A SUDDEN GLOBAL SURGE IN BUSINESS INSOLVENCIES
At first, the COVID-19 epidemic in China only affected a limited number of value chains – but it has since turned into a global pandemic.
At first, the COVID-19 epidemic in China only affected a limited number of value chains – but it has since turned into a global pandemic.
Its repercussions have created a double shock – supply and demand – that is affecting a large number of industries all over the world.
The uniqueness of this crisis makes comparisons with the previous ones useless, as they all had financial origins (e.g. global credit crisis of 2008-09, great depression of 1929).
The question is no longer which countries and sectors of activity will be affected by this shock, but rather which few will be spared.
The shock could be even more violent in emerging economies: in addition to managing the pandemic, which will be more difficult for them, they are also facing the fall in oil prices, as well as capital
In this context, Coface forecasts that 2020 will see the global economy’s first recession since 2009, with a growth rate of -1.3% (after +2.5% in 2019). Coface also expects recessions in 68 countries
简单重点翻译
因为武汉肺炎影响
Coface预测：2020年将是全球经济自2009年以来的首次衰退，2020年预估成长率为-1.3％（2019年为+ 2.5％）。
Coface还预计68个国家/地区将出现衰退（去年仅为11个国家），今年全球贸易将下降4.3％（2019年下降-0.4％）
全球企业倒闭数量将增长25％（与Coface之前1月份作的预测相比） + 2％）。