原本2019年预计升息3~4次
代表经济数据持续强劲
今日决议，明年2019年，预计只升息2次
这表示经济前景比以前不景气
目前景气处在高档，正要往下
不管升息几次，就是要杀
这次的会议结果，给空头很好的机会
不再受升息次数调整的干扰
一切由产业景气主导
老话一句，拉高请逃命
※ 引述《meRscliche (如此而已)》之铭言：
: 1.原文连结：
: https://yhoo.it/2Reg5Fb
: Yahoo Finance
: < Fed hikes rates, but signals just two more hikes in 2019 >
: 2.原文内容：
: The Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised interest rates for the fourth time t
hi
: s year.
: 这次是今年第四次升息
: The Fed increased the target range for its benchmark interest rate by 25 bas
is
: points to a new band of 2.25%-2.5%, putting the Fed funds rate at its highe
st
: level since the spring of 2008.孭ll ten voting members of the FOMC voted in
f
: avor of Wednesday’s decision.
: 升息一码，Fed funds rate来到2.25%~2.5%。十位具投票权之委员，都投下这次升息的
同
: 意票。（本次FOMC共17人参与）
: In its statement, the Fed pointed to a labor market that has “continued to
st
: rengthen” and economic activity that is “rising at a strong rate.” The Fe
d
: did note the slowdown in private investment seen over the last several month
s,
: saying “business fixed investment has moderated from its rapid pace earlie
r
: in the year.”
: Fed声明表示：劳动市场、经济成长皆强健。Fed有注意到私部门投资，数月来成长趋缓
；
: 企业固定投资缓和下来，不若其于上半年的快速。
: Along with its latest policy statement the Fed also released an updated set
of
: economic projections, which shows a downgrade in the Fed’s forecast for in
te
: rest rate hikes next year.
: Fed表示2019升息次数将减少。
: The Fed’s latest dot plot now shows the FOMC’s median forecast calling for
t
: wo rate hikes in 2019, down from three in September. Six members of the FOMC
,
: however, see three rate hikes next year as appropriate.
: 最新的dot plot 的中位数预测，展现了Fed认为2019将升息两次，比9月预估的三次下
降
: 了。但依然有6位（共17位）认为会升息到3次。
: (帮补上个图)
: https://i.imgur.com/sVUZtRm.jpg
: The longer-run neutral rate of interest that is expected to sustain full emp
lo
: yment and price stability also fell slightly in December, with the median FO
MC
: forecast now indicating the neutral rate is 2.8%, down from 3% in September
.
: 对于长期的“中性利率”在哪，17人的中位数落在2.8%（其实是2.75%，而且下面数来
第1
: 0个人就跳到3%了好吗），比9月时的相同数字3%低。
: In late November, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell moved markets烀hen he
sa
: id濳he Fed funds rate was “just below” the range of estimates for the neut
ra
: l rate of interest that allows the economy to sustain 2% inflation and full
em
: ployment. That range of estimates has now come down, indicating the current
cy
: cle of interest rate increases is closer to its end than previously thought.
: 11月底时（11/27），Powell 说目前利率只比“中性利率”仅低一点。随着今日的升息
，
: 本次利率循环又更接近尾声了。
: Ahead of Wednesday’s meeting markets had all but priced out any further rat
e
: increases in 2019. The Fed’s downgrade in its expected path for future rate
h
: ikes shows the central bank softening its view towards how many more interes
t
: rate increases will be needed before the neutral rate is reached, though mar
ke
: t pricing and the Fed’s new forecast are still out of step.
: （跳过）
: Financial market volatility was also acknowledged by the Fed in Wednesday’s
s
: tatement, with the central bank adding language which said it, “will contin
ue
: to monitor global economic and financial developments and assess their impl
ic
: ations for the economic outlook.” In November, the Fed said simply that ris
ks
: to the economic outlook were roughly balanced.
: The Fed made a key change to its forward guidance on Wednesday, saying that
“
: some further gradual increases” in the Fed funds rate would be warranted. T
hi
: s alters previous language that had simply said “further gradual increases
”
: would be necessary. The addition of the word “some” — in addition to the
ne
: w dot plot — suggests the Fed is nearing what it sees as the end of the cur
re
: nt tightening cycle.
: Fed 在未来的指导原则叙述中，做了重大改变，语气变的较鸽派，再搭配上 dot plot
，
: 这两个证据，暗示了紧缩循环即将进入尾声。
: The Fed on Wednesday also tempered its expectations for economic growth this
y
: ear and next, forecasting real GDP growth of 3% this year and 2.3% next year
.
: In September, the Fed forecasted real GDP growth of 3.1% and 2.5% in 2018 an
d
: 2019, respectively.
: 2018 & 2019实质GDP预估，比起9月时都被下修了
: 2018：3.1% -> 3%
: 2019：2.5% -> 2.3%
: Inflation forecasts for the Fed were also downgraded on Wednesday, with core
P
: CE inflation now expected to rise 1.9% this year and 2% over the next three
ye
: ars. In September, the Fed had expected core inflation to rise 2% in 2018 an
d
: 2.1% in each of the next three years. Since the Fed’s September meeting, oi
l
: prices have declined sharply and inflation data have softened.
: 通膨（核心PCE）预测也较9月下修了，因为9月的升息导致石油价格大跌，通膨因此疲
软
: 。
: 2018：2% -> 1.9%
: 接下来三年：2.1% -> 2%
: The Fed’s unemployment forecast was little-changed on Wednesday, with unemp
lo
: yment expected to be 3.7% this year and 3.5% next year, unchanged from Septe
mb
: er. In 2020 and 2021, the Fed now sees unemployment rates of 3.6% and 3.8%,
re
: spectively, increases of 0.1% from September’s forecast. Both years, howeve
r,
: are expected to see unemployment rates below the Fed’s long-run forecast o
f
: a 4.4% unemployment rate that sustains a “full employment” environment.
: 预测失业率的部分，相较于9月，只有上修一点点：
: 2018 -> 一样3.7%
: 2019 -> 一样3.5%
: 2020 -> 3.6%，上修0.1%
: 2021 -> 3.8%，上修0.1%
: 即使微幅上修2020与2021，这两年的失业率，依然低于Fed 长期预测的4.4%。而Fed认
为
: 在充分就业下的失业率（i.e.自然失业率）就在4.4%附近。
: On a more technical note, the Federal Reserve also announced that the intere
st
: paid on excess reserves, or IOER rate, at 2.4%, 10 basis points below the u
pp
: er band of the Fed funds rate.
: In June and then in September, the Fed set the IOER 5 basis points below the
F
: ed funds rate to maintain a cushion between the upper band of its targeted r
an
: ge and the effective rate paid out to reserves kept at the Fed. In recent mo
nt
: hs, the effective Fed funds rate has been sitting around 2.19%, just 1 basis
p
: oint below the previous IOER.
: （跳）
: 3.心得/评论：
: 开奖了，道琼目前 -1.16%，标普 -1.29%。台股准备好跳水！
: 虽然各种经济预估下修，但以历史来看，似乎还没到崩盘危机？但，短暂拉回是避免不
了
: 。