1.原文连结：
CNBC
https://goo.gl/eWd1Yk
2.原文内容：
Analyst predicts Apple shares will drop as iPhone sales expectations are
not 'realistic'
分析师: 苹果股价会跟哀凤实际销量一起被看破手脚
Deutsche Bank reiterated its hold rating on Apple shares, saying Wall Street
consensus estimates for iPhone sales in fiscal 2019 are too high.
德意志: 哀凤销量预测五告膨风
"We remain wary that investor expectations for the iPhone 8/X cycle are more
optimistic than realistic," the firm's analyst said.
信仰充值循环周期没那么短
Apple stock has lost about $50 billion in market value so far this month,
falling 6 percent. It is still one of the market's best-performing large-cap
stocks so far this year, up 33 percent.
AAPL 这个月崩崩, 虽然今年来看股价表现还不错
The market's anticipation of big sales of new iPhones drove Apple shares
higher this year, but now one Wall Street firm says the smartphone maker's
stock has risen too far.
哀凤销量吹牛大赛让 AAPL 股价喷喷, 分析师: 太豪小
Deutsche Bank reiterated its hold rating on Apple shares, saying Wall
Street's consensus estimates for future iPhone sales are too high.
德意志: 吹牛吹得太过火
"We remain wary that investor expectations for the iPhone 8/X cycle are more
optimistic than realistic," analyst Sherri Scribner wrote in a note to
clients Wednesday entitled "Expectations are pricing in more than Apple can
chew."
"Given the substantial additional upside needed to drive further share gains
from here, and our view that FY-19 estimates need to come down to
realistically reflect a year after a strong cycle, we see modest downside
risk to shares near-term," she added.
Sherri Scribner: 信仰充值周期没那摸短, 高估
Apple shares fell 0.7 percent in early trading Thursday after the report.
AAPL 周四早盘发布这则报导时崩崩 0.7%
The stock has lost about $50 billion in market value so far this month,
falling 6 percent. Despite recent weakness, Apple is still one of the
market's best-performing large-cap stocks, rallying 33 percent this year
through Wednesday versus the S&P 500's 12 percent gain.
本月市值蒸发 50B, 但今年仍是前段班
The analyst reaffirmed her $140 price target for Apple shares, which is 9
percent lower than Wednesday's closing price.
Sherri Scribner: 140 收
Scribner said investors are expecting fiscal 2018 to be a repeat of the big
iPhone 6 upgrade cycle in fiscal 2015, when the company generated sales $31
billion above expectations.
Sherri Scribner: 投资人还肖想 i8 iX 会复制 i6 走势
"To beat expectations by a similar magnitude ($30B) this cycle would require
that AAPL ship 45M more iPhone units in FY-18 than current expectations, or
nearly 290M iPhones in total. We view this as highly unlikely," she wrote.
Sherri Scribner: 要达到18财测还要再多出货45M单位, 也就是总共出货290M, 呷屎啦
She is more pessimistic for the following year and predicts Apple's fiscal
2019 sales will drop.
她悲观
"We believe it is more likely that unit forecasts decline, similar to the
iPhone 6s cycle, and Street estimates for FY-19 need to come down to reflect
a more realistic down year following the iPhone 8/X cycle," the analyst wrote.
Sherri Scribner: 复制i6? 我看倒像绿豆糕... 不是, 是 6s
Apple did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Apple: ....
3.心得/评论：
苹果的时代迎向末途, 信仰就是力量
但失去信仰的神祇就像荒山中的土地公庙
只有猴子会去寻找不再出现的供品
入我索教得永生, 共勉之