LMCI Core_PCE
2007-01-01 5.6 2.4
2007-02-01 4.0 2.4
2007-03-01 4.2 2.3
2007-04-01 0.3 2.1
2007-05-01 -1.1 2.0
2007-06-01 -3.9 1.9
2007-07-01 -5.9 2.0
2007-08-01 -6.6 1.9
2007-09-01 -4.7 2.0
2007-10-01 -2.8 2.1
2007-11-01 -2.4 2.3
2007-12-01 -4.4 2.3
2008-01-01 -6.5 2.1
2008-02-01 -9.8 2.0
2008-03-01 -11.9 2.2
2008-04-01 -13.2 2.2
2008-05-01 -15.0 2.3
2008-06-01 -12.8 2.3
2008-07-01 -14.1 2.3
2008-08-01 -16.6 2.3
2008-09-01 -22.2 2.1
2008-10-01 -31.4 1.8
2008-11-01 -38.2 1.7
2008-12-01 -38.7 1.4
2009-01-01 -38.4 1.2
2009-02-01 -35.8 1.2
2009-03-01 -30.6 1.1
2009-04-01 -20.4 1.2
2009-05-01 -8.8 1.2
2009-06-01 -2.8 1.1
2009-07-01 0.5 1.0
2009-08-01 0.8 1.0
2009-09-01 0.5 1.0
2009-10-01 1.5 1.3
2009-11-01 6.2 1.4
2009-12-01 7.1 1.5
2010-01-01 9.2 1.6
2010-02-01 7.9 1.5
2010-03-01 10.0 1.6
2010-04-01 10.2 1.3
2010-05-01 8.1 1.3
2010-06-01 4.8 1.3
2010-07-01 2.3 1.4
2010-08-01 1.0 1.3
2010-09-01 2.4 1.2
2010-10-01 4.8 1.0
2010-11-01 4.3 1.0
2010-12-01 7.6 0.9
2011-01-01 8.0 1.0
2011-02-01 10.3 1.1
2011-03-01 9.3 1.1
2011-04-01 5.9 1.3
2011-05-01 2.0 1.4
2011-06-01 0.8 1.5
2011-07-01 0.6 1.6
2011-08-01 0.7 1.7
2011-09-01 4.0 1.7
2011-10-01 7.5 1.8
2011-11-01 10.1 1.8
2011-12-01 11.3 2.0
2012-01-01 11.6 2.1
2012-02-01 8.9 2.0
2012-03-01 5.1 2.1
2012-04-01 1.0 2.0
2012-05-01 -1.5 1.9
2012-06-01 -2.3 1.9
2012-07-01 0.5 1.8
2012-08-01 3.2 1.6
2012-09-01 4.0 1.7
2012-10-01 5.6 1.7
2012-11-01 4.5 1.6
2012-12-01 3.9 1.6
2013-01-01 4.5 1.5
2013-02-01 6.6 1.5
2013-03-01 4.2 1.4
2013-04-01 2.7 1.3
2013-05-01 2.6 1.3
2013-06-01 2.3 1.3
2013-07-01 3.2 1.3
2013-08-01 3.6 1.3
2013-09-01 3.5 1.3
2013-10-01 4.2 1.3
2013-11-01 7.0 1.3
2013-12-01 4.1 1.3
2014-01-01 2.8 1.2
2014-02-01 3.1 1.2
2014-03-01 6.0 1.3
2014-04-01 8.1 1.4
2014-05-01 7.0 1.5
2014-06-01 5.7 1.5
2014-07-01 3.4 1.5
2014-08-01 3.0 1.5
2014-09-01 4.9 1.5
2014-10-01 6.1 1.5
2014-11-01 7.1 1.4
2014-12-01 7.2 1.3
2015-01-01 3.5 1.3
2015-02-01 1.4 1.3
2015-03-01 -1.3 1.4
2015-04-01 -1.2 1.3
2015-05-01 0.9 1.2
2015-06-01 0.8
LMCI=Labor Market Conditions Index
以下是FED对LMCI的解释
The U.S. labor market is large and multifaceted. Often-cited indicators, such
as the unemployment rate or payroll employment, measure a particular dimension
of labor market activity, and it is not uncommon for different indicators to
send conflicting signals about labor market conditions. Accordingly, analysts
typically look at many indicators when attempting to gauge labor market
improvement. However, it is often difficult to know how to weigh signals from
various indicators. Statistical models can be useful to such efforts because
they provide a way to summarize information from several indicators. This Note
describes a dynamic factor model of labor market indicators that we have
developed recently, which we call the labor market conditions index (LMCI).
Details of the data, model, and estimation will be presented in a forthcoming
FEDS working paper.
总之这是一个综合不同劳动市场状况的指数，总共19个参数，包含大家熟悉的失业率，
劳动参与率，工作时数，平均时薪…有兴趣深入了解的请参考
goo.gl/L3kelQ
Core PCE =Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy
(Chain-Type Price Index)
是除了CPI外另一种通膨的数据(本鲁之前有稍微介绍过)
基本上，升息主要看两个地方: 通膨(inflation)＆劳工市场(labor market)
（我们最熟悉的失业率，只是劳工市场其中一个indicator，就像CPI也只
是通膨的indicator之一）
观察上面的数字，本来觉得美国第一季受到天气和油价大跌的，数据不佳
只是一个短暂的影响，第二季油价回稳及其他因素消失应能重回增长；但
看到现在，LMCI连续两个月呈负值(上次出现负值是2012年)，56月不到1的
数字也相当低，核心PCE没有上升迹象
不是叶伦要不要升息，是现在的数字足不足以支撑升息的决定
更何况对联准会来说，太早升息的风险绝对比太晚升息的风险大
除非未来三个月的数字表现得非常漂亮，不然看不出九月要怎么升息
继续维持原先看法，升息时间点落在12月或更晚