ESPN的报导
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Betting value in divisional round
David Solar [ARCHIVE]
Sports Insights | January 7, 2015
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There is plenty of betting value in the divisional round of the NFL playoffs.
After posting a 27-22 ATS record this season (including a 1-1 ATS record with
last week's wild-card picks), the team at Sports Insights is back with another
historically profitable betting system offering value during the NFL division
al round.
Fans and analysts alike often cite how important it is to post one of the two
best records in each conference, therefore earning a first-round bye. That ext
ra rest gives coaches more time to game plan and players time to recuperate fr
om a grueling season. But is a first-round bye as advantageous as we believe?
Could it be that first-round byes are overvalued by bettors? Worse yet, do the
y actually kill momentum?
Our philosophy is to fade the public, asserting a contrarian view on the sport
s betting marketplace. If the public loads up on the favorite, we take the und
erdog. If square bettors artificially inflate the total by hammering the over,
we are likely to take the under. We preach the gospel of buying on bad news a
nd selling on good. Rather than overreact to recent results, we focus on long-
term trends.
There are countless examples that illustrate how public perception can be prof
itable for sports bettors. Here's one: Bettors tend to place emphasis on home-
field advantage, although historically, road teams have been far more profitab
le. Bettors also believe that cold weather leads to low-scoring games, when th
e exact opposite is true.
To test whether first-round byes were actually being overvalued, we used our B
et Labs software, which allows bettors to create their own betting systems fro
m our historical database. We found that teams receiving a first-round bye had
gone just 17-27 ATS since 2003, including a 1-3 ATS record last season. When
we focused on the favorites, that record dipped slightly to 15-27 ATS.
来源:
http://m.espn.go.com/wireless/story?storyId=12131512&ex_cid=espnapi_affiliate_
Prism
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