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原文请见以下连结：
https://www.overthemonster.com/2018/11/28/18114130/2018-red-sox-tzu-wei-lin
2018 in Review: Tzu-Wei Lin
A look back at a solid year for the depth piece.
By [email protected] Nov 28, 2018, 10:30am EST
The Season in a Sentence
Tzu-Wei Lin was far from the most important player on the 2018 Red Sox,
but his presence of depth was always important and he played well in the
major-league chances he did get.
赛季总结
对2018的红袜来说，林子伟与成为红袜的重要成员还有很长的距离。但他的存在对
阵容深度的重要性无庸置疑，并在有限的大联盟出赛中有不错的表现。
The Positives
好的部分
Just by looking at Lin and knowing that he is mostly an up-the-middle
player, there are some assumptions one could reasonably make about his game.
Given his smaller stature and thinner frame, it’s expected that he is more
of a defense and speed oriented player who could single his way to a solid
batting line. That’s not unfair, and has mostly been him over his career.
However, he showed some unprecedented pop both in the majors and in Triple-A
in 2018.
当你看着林子伟而且知道他是一个中线球员时，人们很容易就产生一些想像。身高不高
及偏瘦的体型，似乎意味着他是防守及速度型的球员，然后能打一些短程的安打。这种
预期是不公平的，虽然他之前生涯似乎就是这个样子。在2018年，他在大联盟及3A的赛
场上取得了巨大的进步。
Coming off his 2017 breakout, he showed even more improvement by
posting a .141 Isolated Power in 302 Triple-A plate appearances and a .169
ISO in 73 major-league plate appearances. Now, those numbers don’t really
jump off the page, particularly in the modern launch angle era of the game,
but context matters. Prior to 2018, Lin had only posted an ISO over .100
once in his six professional seasons, and that came in a 184-plate
appearances stint at Double-A last year. This was a different kind of Lin
that stuck around pretty much all year, and it was nice to see.
在他2017年的蜕变中，林子伟在3A的302个打席里IsoP达到0.141；在大联盟的73个打
席中更达到0.169。这个数字在现在的打击仰角革命时代并不突出，但对他别具意义。
在2018年之前六年的职业生涯中，林子伟的IsoP只有在2017年在2A的184个打席中超
过0.100。而2018年的林子伟整年维持了令人乐见的长打进化。
Sticking with a similar part of his game, Lin’s general quality of contact
was fantastic all year long. That’s not super surprising given the uptick
in power and the relative consistency of that uptick, but it’s still worth
mentioning. Along with the ISO’s that broke from his career norms, Lin was
posting strong batting averages on balls in play. Although some of those
numbers are simply good luck, and another portion is due to minor-league
defense, Lin deserves credit here. In the majors, according to Fangraphs’
batted ball numbers, he hit the ball hard over 41 percent of the time
(league-average is 35 percent) and hit line drives 27 percent of the time.
Granted, these come over a very small sample so a grain of salt should be
taken, but it’s worth mentioning his line drive rate stuck through his
Triple-A stint as well. Hard-hit rates aren’t available in the minors.
Combine the line drives and his above-average athleticism and you get a
recipe for strong BABIPs. Lin posted a .385 BABIP in Pawtucket and a .319
mark in Boston.
与长打的进化相似，林子伟保持了整年优秀的击球品质。虽然不是非常令人惊讶，
但值得一提的是，林子伟的打击率跟他的长打能力一起进化了。虽然这些数字带了些
运气的成份，小联盟的守备也美化了这部分数字，但仍值得令人称赞。在大联盟时根
据Fangraphs的击球统计，他扎实击中球的比例达到41%，而联盟平均只有35%；另外平
飞球率达到27%。当然这些数字来自小样本所以不一定可靠。然而，虽然3A没有统计扎
实击球的比率，但他在3A的平飞球率一样优异。综合他的平飞球率及高于平均的运动能
力，就能知道为何他把球打进场内时有优秀的上垒能力。他在3A的BAPIP达到0.385, 而
在大联盟时是0.319。
Finally, we move away from the offense and look at the defense, which has
always been the calling card for Lin. Fangraphs has him providing negative
value with the glove in the majors, but given the size of the sample I
think that can be ignored. What’s most important for Lin at this point is
to build as much versatility as possible. Even with the strides he has made
with the bat, his future role is off a major-league bench, and the more
positions he can play the more value he’ll bring to his future team. Lin
didn’t play a ton of positions this year, but he did get time at shortstop
(his natural position) and center field. It’s the outfield that is so
important. We have seen him enough to know he can be at least passable all
around the infield, and that he continues to get time in center field means
he could be able to play all around the outfield as well. If that sticks,
Lin becomes a true super utility player and has legitimate value in the
majors as long as his bat avoids becoming a black hole.
最后，我们撇开进攻部分，来看看林子伟一向被人标榜的防守。在Fangraphs中，他
2018的防守在大联盟里的是负贡献的。但这个样本太小，我们可以直接忽略。现在对
林子伟来说，最重要的就是表现他在防守的多元性。即使他的打击已经进步很多，他
的未来期望仍是从板凳出发。拥有越多守备位置，他对球队就越有价值。今年他并没
有守一大堆位置，但他防守了游击区(他的老本行)以及中外野。过去我们已经看到他
内野几乎每个位置都能守。而既然他持续得到在中外野的防守机会，那意味着他外野
也是三个位置都能守。如果这样继续下去，只要他不变成打线里的黑洞，他会成为大
联盟里真正的超级工具人。
The Negatives
不好的部分
As Lin’s power and general quality of contact has improved, we’ve seen a
backslide in his plate discipline as a result. It’s not terribly surprising
to see a worse overall approach at the plate as a player starts to hit for
more power, but it doesn’t make it much easier to swallow. Over his
professional career, the utility man has always been able to walk at a high
clip while also striking out at a rate well below the league average. That
wasn’t the case in 2018. In Triple-A, where he spent most of his time, he
walked just 7.6 percent of the time while he struck out 21.2 percent of the
time. It was a version of Lin we’ve almost never seen. In his short
major-league stint, to his credit, his walk rate did creep up above
11 percent, but he also struck out 23 percent of the time. If Lin can keep
up the power and BABIP, he can survive with these less-than-stellar plate
discipline numbers, particularly as a bench player with his versatility.
That’s betting big on relatively new developments in terms of contact
quality, though.
虽然林子伟的击球品质及长打力在持续提升，作为代价，他的固守好球带的能力有显著
下滑。当一个球员正长出一些长打时，把球带进来的能力下滑并不是令人惊恐的事情。
然而，这件事不能就这样下结论。作为一个功能性球员，林子伟的生涯是高上垒率而且
三振率低于联盟平均的球员。2018年不同了。在3A，他的上垒率只有7.6%而且三振率达
21.2%，这对他来说是从没发生过的。在有限的大联盟打席中，他的保送率达到值得称赞
的11%，但三振率达23%。如果他能维持现有的长打以及高的BAPIP，作为一个多才多艺的
板凳球员，他也能这个低于平均的本垒版纪律下存活。这是一场攸关于提高击球品质的
一场博奕
Lin also wasn’t the kind of baserunner we’ve grown accustomed to over his
professional career. Now, without seeing him everyday (since most of his
games were in the minors) it’s hard to know if this was simply a team
strategy thing or something had changed with Lin. The 24-year-old (he’ll
be 25 in February) had been a double-digit steals guy throughout his
professional career, but this year he only swiped three bases, with all of
them coming in Triple-A. In fact, Fangraphs rated him as a negative on the
bases in the majors, though again the sample is very small. Even worse, he
was caught more often than he was successful. Lin has never been a true
burner, but as we talked about above the amount of versatility he has is key
to his value. That doesn’t just mean defense, and if he can be a true pinch
running asset that will only help him. He took a step back in that area in
2018.
林子伟的跑垒与过去我们了解的他也不一致。因为他待在小联盟较多，我们无法了解是
因为球队的策略，还是什么事情造成快满25岁的林子伟今年只有成功盗了三次垒，而且
都在3A。过去他是一个平均双位数盗垒的球员。而事实上根据Fangraphs，虽然是小样
本，他的跑垒贡献在大联盟是负的。而更糟的是他盗垒被抓到的次数比成功的次数还多。
林子伟一直不是一个好的盗垒发动者，但如同我们之前提到的，他的价值是在他的多样
能力。这不仅是指守备而已，还有他的代跑能力是否能成为另一种价值。在2018，这部
份退化了。
The Big Question
Was Tzu-Wei Lin’s 2017 a fluke?
关键问题：到底2017的林子伟是真的进化了还是昙花一现？
It was a little while ago now, but Lin absolutely came out of nowhere in
2017 to be a legitimate major-league depth piece. He exploded in Double-A
to start the year after never showing any upside with the bat previously in
his professional career, and as the Red Sox were decimated by injury and
underperformance in the infield that year he got a shocking call-up to the
bigs. Given how surprising the surge in performance was, it was only natural
to think there was at least a chance it was a fluke, but Lin proved the
strides he made at the plate were very real. Again, he’s probably not
going to be a starter in the majors, particularly on a good team, but prior
to 2017 he was very likely not even a major leaguer. Now he should have a
solid career as a bench player after he continued to improve at the plate
in 2018.
这已经是讨论一段时间的议题了,但现在已无庸置疑，他已经是能在大联盟贡献团队深
度的一份子。2017,他在2A的打击在开季出现了前所未有的爆发，而在红袜当时的伤兵潮
与其他球员糟糕的表现下，球团出乎意外的把他升上大联盟。一般认为这只是球团在他
短期爆发下给的一个机会，但林子伟掌握住这个机会并表现得非常优秀。也许他不会是
一个大联盟的先发选手，特别是在一个强队的时候。但2017年后，他证明了他很可能不
仅仅只是能升上大联盟而已。只要打击能持续像2018年一样的成长，他能以板凳球员的
身分有着不错的大联盟生涯。
The Year Ahead
展望来年
Lin is expected to serve in a similar role in 2019 to the one he served in
2018. That’s not great news for the player, who likely feels he’s earned
a real chance at sticking on a major-league roster all year. He’s probably
right, but the Red Sox aren’t in a position to make that happen, and they
also aren’t in a position to trade him to a team that will. Lin’s best
chance at real time depends on the health of guys like Dustin Pedroia and
Marco Hernandez, which may actually be good news for Lin. The good news for
him is that this is his final year with a minor-league option, so this year
is just about maintaining value so he can be in a position to take a roster
spot with someone in 2020.
预期2019年林子伟仍会扮演与2018年相同的角色。对他来说这并不是一个好消息，特别
是他似乎已经值得在大联盟名单拥有一席之地。这句话可能是对的，但不适用于红袜
队，而且似乎红袜队也不会当卖家把林子伟交易到其他队伍。他的机会取决于一些球
员，像Dustin Pedroia 或 Marco Hernandez的健康；而这对林子伟可能不是坏消息。
好消息是这会是他最后一年有下放小联盟的选项，所以2019年林子伟的目标就是维持
2018年的表现，然后在2020年取代某人进入球队的大联盟名单。