The State of the System: A baseball kōan: Can Dave Dombrowski build a system
so shallow even Dave Dombrowksi can’t make trades from it?
The Top Ten:
Jay Groome, LHP
Michael Chavis, 3B
Bryan Mata, RHP
Tanner Houck, RHP
Josh Ockimey, 1B
Michael Shawaryn, RHP
Cole Brannen, OF
Alex Scherff, RHP
Lorenzo Cedrola, OF
Sam Travis, 1B
1. Jay Groome, LHP
The Good: His curve remains one of baseball’s biggest potential weapons on
the mound, a true potential future 80-grade pitch. He still has pretty
advanced feel for his age, and he did strike out almost 12 batters per 9
innings pitching in Low-A at just 18 years old. He’s built like an absolute
brick house, tall and with a strong and sturdy frame everywhere. He’s a
legitimate three-pitch guy, with a lively fastball and a fairly advanced
change, albeit one that only projects to average or slightly-above.
The Bad: He missed over two months with a lat injury. When he pitched, he wasn
’t all that effective, although his ERA is inflated by giving up nine runs
while compromised in his one Low-A outing before the injury. While he’ll sit
as high as 93-95 and touch 97 early in games, he has serious trouble
maintaining his velocity into the middle innings, an issue that has plagued
him since high school. His command also wavers, both from outing to outing
and batter to batter.
The Role:
OFP 70—Ace performance with fewer than ace innings
Likely 50—Fourth starter or late-inning arm that flashes more
The Risks: Extreme in every direction. Groome has true ace upside, and has
been flashing it for years now. But he remains unpolished and unrefined, and
frankly looks like he might be on a path with significant reliever risk now.
And that’s before even getting into the “makeup concerns.”
We probably can’t discuss Groome without noting that a cloud of
off-the-field concerns have followed Groome since he transferred from
Barnegat High School in New Jersey to the IMG Academy in Florida and then
back over about a year’s period in 2014-2015. What we can factually tell you
is that he was suspended for part of his senior season by the state athletic
association over residency issues regarding his transfer back to Barnegat,
that various personal and signing bonus demand rumors almost certainly caused
him to drop significantly in the draft, and that his father was arrested on a
host of drug and weapon charges last year in connection with a New Jersey
heroin, cocaine, and methamphetamine distribution sting. Past that, we get
into the domain of speculation and innuendo. —Jarrett Seidler
Major league ETA: 2020
Ben Carsley’s Fantasy Take: At a certain point this gets into personal
preference. Do you prefer a pitcher with a 20 percent chance of being a No. 2
starter but a 50 percent chance of at least providing mid-rotation value, or
do you go with a guy like Groome, who might have a 15 percent chance of
becoming a True Ace(TM) but who could easily fall off the face of the earth?
You all know how I feel by now—Groome is still a borderline top-50 guy for
me because of my upside-only strategy with pitchers. You can make a
reasonable case for him slotting 30 or 40 spots lower, though.
2. Michael Chavis, 3B
The Good: Chavis put the hand injuries that have dogged his pro career in the
rear view mirror in 2017, and hoo boy here come the dingers. Chavis always
had plus raw in the profile, but could never stay on the field long enough to
really show it off. Now 31 home runs in 126 games overstates the power
projection here, but 25 home runs from his compact, power stroke seems very
possible. And with the “flyball revolution,” that might even end up low. He
has the swing—if not the approach yet—to show off this power to all fields,
but it is primarily pull-side at present. The rest of the profile isn’t much
to write home about, but he has the arm and the range to be passable at third
and is a better athlete than you’d expect given his fireplug frame.
The Bad: Finding Chavis a place to stand in the majors might prove tricky.
Obviously he isn’t unseating Rafael Devers from third base, but even in a
vacuum, he’s fringy there. There aren’t the fast-twitch reactions you
expect at the hot corner, and his strong arm can play down due to an
inconsistent arm slot. But there really isn’t a better fit for him. The
range would be stretched at second, he doesn’t have ideal foot speed for a
corner outfield spot, and he’s shorter than you’d want in a first baseman
(not to mention the pressure that would put on the bat). If he can battle and
be fringy at third, that might be his most valuable defensive home. At the
plate, Chavis trades off some hit tool utility for his potential plus power.
He swings for the fences, and will collapse his back side and pop balls up.
He also struggles to gear down for spin. Major league arms are good at
exploiting those issues.
The Role:
OFP 55—Above-average major leaguer, position TBD
Likely 50—Average major leaguer, position TBD
The Risks: Everything other than power might end up below-average, so there’
s some pretty big variance in the ultimate outcome here, despite the fact
that he has already bopped in Double-A.
Major league ETA: Late 2018
Ben Carsley’s Fantasy Take: It’s true that power is at less of a premium
today than it was five years ago, but Chavis still has the ceiling of a
decent fantasy third baseman and the floor of a passable fantasy CI. Given
his proximity to the majors and (to a lesser degree) his potential future
home of Fenway that makes him a borderline top-50 dynasty prospect. He does
carry risk thanks to the defensive deficiencies and the injury history,
though.
4. Tanner Houck, RHP
The Good: Listed at 6-foot-5 and 220 pounds, Houck clearly possesses a starter
’s frame with some remaining projection. His fastball is potentially a plus
or better offering, and he commands it well. The pitch typically sits 92-96
(t98) and features impressive sinking action, which induces weak contact and
swing and misses. His sweepy slider flashes above average and generated a few
swing and misses during my viewings of him. Houck’s delivery is deceptive as
well due to his low three-quarters arm slot.
The Bad: His slider is fairly inconsistent while his changeup is a work in
progress. Even though I believe it contributes to his effectiveness, some
evaluators are concerned that his low three-quarters delivery will prevent
him from becoming a big league starter.
The Role:
OFP 55—Mid-rotation starter
Likely 45—Back-end starter or high leverage reliever
The Risks: He’s a 21-year-old pitching prospect with only 22 ⅓ innings of
professional experience (none above short-season ball). His average start
this summer was just over two innings. —Erich Rothmann
Major league ETA: 2020
Ben Carsley’s Fantasy Take: I am higher on Houck than my colleague and
internet dad Bret Sayre is—he would’ve made my top-50 signees list if I had
one—but still only as one of the last 10-or-so names. The truth of the
matter is that tons of guys with Houck’s profile get popped every year, and
until he’s closer to the majors and/or looks like a safer bet to remain a
starter, he’s unlikely to be of much interest to us. He seems unlikely to
ever become a premium source of strikeouts.