http://goo.gl/BifdLj
By Mike Petriello
Gary Sanchez has a .197 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), the
second-lowest of any qualified hitter this year. That's actually understating
it, to some extent; that .197 mark would be the lowest BABIP of any qualified
Yankees hitter in the last century. It's a big part of why Sanchez is
currently hitting a disappointing .190/.291/.430 after going 0-for-4 in the
Yankees' 2-0 loss to the Mets on Sunday.
Gary Sanchez 今年的BABIP只有.197，在全大联盟打席足够的选手中排名倒数第二，保守
一点来说，这可能和上个世纪所有打席足够的洋基选手比较起来都是最低的，这充分解释
他在星期天的洋基以0:2输给大都会的比赛缴出0-4后，三围只有.190/.291/.430的原因
Because it strips out strikeouts and home runs, BABIP exists to tell the
story of only what happens when the ball is put into play, on only those
plate appearances where a fielder can make an impact. While a batter has a
great deal of control over his own walks, strikeouts and home runs, he has
only partial control over the outcomes of balls in play. As such, BABIP has
long been used to determine good or bad "luck" for those hitters who have
abnormally high or low marks.
由于排除了野手没碰到球的情形，BABIP长期被用来测定那些成绩异常高/低的选手是否
运气特别的好/坏
Sometimes it tells a story. As in, sometimes a low BABIP really does mean
poor fortune. But it's dangerous to look at a low mark and instantly assume
that's the case, because depending on the situation, a low BABIP can actually
be telling you any number of stories.
有时候他解释了一些事情，有时候低的BABIP真的代表运气不好，但光凭这样就来解释球员
表现是很危险的。事实上，低BABIP可能代表着更多情形
So what does it mean for Sanchez? And what does it tell us about how the rest
of his season may play out?
所以这对Sanchez有什么意义? 这赛季后续他的表现会如何?
Let's look at five possible reasons that he's not finding success when he
puts the ball in play, then explain what the real reason likely is.
我们来看看五个让他打入球场内的play结果相当不理想的原因，并解释真的原因会是哪个
1) Maybe he's not hitting the ball hard.
The first thing you think of when you see a low BABIP is simply "lousy
contact." It's nice to avoid strikeouts and put the bat on the ball, but it
doesn't really matter much if it's weak contact. That's what is happening to
Kansas City's Alcides Escobar, for example. He has a .236 BABIP, well below
the Major League average of .294. In his case, it's not likely to be bad
luck, because he has a hard-hit rate of just 24.9 percent, also well below
the league average of 36.3 percent. Poor contact leads to poor outcomes.
1)也许他打出的球不够强劲
当你看到一个低的BABIP数值时，你会想到"碰球"。他可以避免三振让你的棒子碰到球，
但并不会有什么帮助。这正发生在皇家队的Escobar身上，.236的BABIP，低于联盟平均的
.294，这不像是运气不好，因为他的Hard%(?)只有24.9%，远低于联盟平均的36.3%，糟糕
的contact导致糟糕的结果
However, that doesn't seem to be Sanchez's problem. Last year, when he hit
.278/.345/.531 with 33 home runs, he had a 43.1 percent hard-hit rate and a
90.8-mph average exit velocity, both strong marks. While struggling this
year, he has a 41.7 percent hard-hit rate and a 89.8-mph exit velocity. Those
are down from last year, but only slightly, and are still above average. His
hard-hit rate is better than Eric Hosmer or Matt Kemp, just to name a few.
This is mostly not the issue.
然而，这不像是Sanchez的问题，去年他.278/.345/.531，并打出33HR的球季，有着43.1%
的Hard%(?)和90.8-mph的平均击球初速。两个数值都相当优秀，而今年这个挣扎的年份中
，他有着41.7%的Hard%和89.8-mph的击球初速。虽然都比去年低，但没有低很多，且仍然
在平均之上，比Eric Hosmer或Matt Kemp都还要好，显然不是主要因素
2) Maybe it's because he's not fast.
Sanchez, a catcher, isn't known for his foot speed. Statcast™ has a metric
called sprint speed, which measures a runner's top speed in feet per second,
and Sanchez ranks 366th of 445 qualified players, or slower than about 82
percent of hitters. As you'd expect, there's some relationship between speed
and BABIP, because fast players can beat out infield hits and slow ones
rarely do.
2)也许他跑太慢
Sanchez是一个捕手，不以脚程出名，Statcast™有一项关于冲刺速度的统计，测量跑者
每秒的最高速度，Sanchez在445位选手中排名366，比82%的人都要慢。跑垒速度确实和
BABIP有一定程度的相关，因为那些快腿更容易让打进场内的球变成安打
Then again, Sanchez wasn't exactly speedy when he had a .307 BABIP from
2015-17, either. It's probably not this, at least not more than it has ever
been.
然而，在2015-2017的三年中，Sanchez在同样不是快腿的情况下有着.307的BABIP。
这应该也不是主要原因
3) Maybe he's getting eaten up by the shift.
While the shift may have less impact than we think it does, one thing it does
do effectively is turn likely singles into outs. Obviously, hard-hit balls
that would have been a hit in years past often now turn into outs, thanks to
a well-positioned fielder.
3)也许他被Shift影响了
或许shift没我们想像中那么有用，他最有价值的地方在于把可能的一垒安打变成出局数，
很明显地，在这些野手的良好站位下，许多往年应该变成安打的强劲飞球变成了出局数
Though this mostly affects lefty batters, Sanchez is getting shifted more, 40
percent of the time this year, up from 28 percent last year. But he has a
.269 BABIP against the shift, and a .160 mark when he's not being shifted.
It's probably not this, either.
虽然这大部分影响的对象是左打者，Sanchez却受到更多的Shift待遇，他今年有40%的打席
受到shift待遇，比去年的28%还高。但他在面对shift时有着.269的BABIP，在没有shift时
只有.160，显然也不是这个原因
4) Maybe it's just bad luck.
This is the most popular reason for a low BABIP, and it's often true. We've
all seen poorly hit bloops turn into doubles or crushed line drives find
gloves. That's just the way baseball works, and it's why batting lines and
actual skills don't always have a perfect correlation.
4)也许他就是运气不好
这是对低BABIP最常见的解释，而且往往是对的，我们常常看到鸟飞变成二安或是强劲的
平飞球去找手套。这就是棒球，也是为什么打击表现和实际技巧不会完全相关
Just look at how Sunday night's game ended. Sanchez hit a hard line drive,
one that had a 61 percent hit probability (based on exit velocity and launch
angle, but because it was right at third baseman Todd Frazier, it turned into
a game-ending double play.
看看星期天的比赛怎么结束的，Sanchez打了一个强劲平飞，通常有61%的机率形成安打
(根据击球初速和角度计算得到)，但却飞到三垒手Todd Frazier的正面，形成再见双杀
There's probably a little truth to this. Sanchez's expected BABIP, again
based on likely outcomes of his exit velocity and launch angle, is .265, a
67-point difference from his actual .198 BABIP. Out of 224 hitters with 100
balls in play, that gap is the 17th-largest. Out of 123 right-handed hitters,
it's the fifth-largest gap. It's probably fair to say that some of Sanchez's
issues are hard-hit balls hit right to waiting gloves.
也许这解释了一部分问题，根据他击球初速的角度做的计算，Sanchez被预期的BABIP是
.265，比实际的.198高了0.067，在224名超过100个play的选手中，这个差距排名第17，
在123名右打者中排名第5，也许我们可以公平的说，Sanchez打了许多强劲的飞球给了在
那边等待的手套
5) Maybe the BABIP is skewed because it doesn't count homers.
Sometimes, BABIP doesn't mean what you think it does at all. If you take the
"in play" aspect to an extreme, the second-lowest BABIP in Yankees history
belongs to Roger Maris (.209) in his historic 61-homer 1961 season. It can be
hard to put up a good batting average on balls in play when your 61 best hits
don't count as "in play." It's probably not this, either. But it's worth
noting, because Sanchez does have 12 homers, tied for the most of any catcher.
5)也许是因为BABIP受到HR的影响而被曲解了
有时候，BABIP并不像你想的那样，如果你只看打进场内的结果，洋基史上第二低的BABIP
是由Roger Maris打出来的，在那1961年，他打了61支全垒打。把他最好的61次打击结果
排除掉后，你很难让这名打者有着良好的数据。虽然也许不是这个，但却值得注意，今年
Sanchez打了12轰，不输给任何一个捕手
So it's not any of that, at least not as a primary factor. So what is it?
What's happening with Sanchez?
看起来这也不是主要因素，所以Sanchez身上发生的什么
Well, it might be simple. When Sanchez hits the ball in the air, he does it
very well. When he hits it on the ground, he does it worse than almost anyone.
好吧，这或许很简单，当Sanchez把球往天上打时，他打得非常好。当他往地上打时，他
几乎比任何人都烂
There have been 232 players who have hit at least 50 fly balls and line
drives this year, and on those balls, Sanchez has been elite. He has a
98.7-mph exit velocity, which ranks fourth behind Joey Gallo, Giancarlo
Stanton and J.D. Martinez. On those non-homer batted balls in play, he has a
.412 BABIP, a little above the league average (.398).
今年有232名至少打出50个飞球和平飞球的选手，在这些人中Sanchez的表现相当优秀，
有着98.7-mph的击球初速，排名第4，只输给Joey Gallo, Giancarlo Stanton 和JD
Martinez。在那些没打成HR的球中，他的BABIP是.412，略高于联盟平均的.398
Meanwhile, there have been 199 players with at least 50 ground balls. On
those, Sanchez has been mediocre. His exit velocity is 84.5 mph, which is
137th, or lower than about two-thirds of players, including noted
non-sluggers Orlando Arcia and Ian Desmond. His BABIP on grounders is .082,
which is 199th. That's the worst in baseball. He has put 61 grounders in
play, and has hits on just five of them.
同时，有199位打了超过50个滚地球的选手，在其中Sanchez的表现相当平凡，击球初速
是84.5mph，排名137，输给2/3的选手，包括认为是non-sluggers的Orlando Arcia 和
Ian Desmond.他滚地球的BABIP是.082，排名199名，也就是最后一名，他打了61个滚地球
其中只有5支安打
Put it all together, and there's no player in baseball with a larger
difference between their grounders and hits in the air. There have been 186
hitters with 50 grounders and 50 flies/liners, and Sanchez's difference of
14.2 mph between his strong 98.7-mph exit velocity on balls in the air and
his weak 84.5-mph grounder exit velocity is the largest. The 333-point
difference between his .082 grounder BABIP and his .412 liner/fly ball BABIP
is the third-largest.
总的来说，没有选手在飞球和滚球两方面有这么大的差异，有186位同时有超过50个飞球/
平飞球和50个滚地球的打者，Sanchez滚球初速的84.5-mph和飞球的98.7mph有14.2mph的
差异，是其中的最大值，而BABIP方面0.330的差异也是第三大的
There are a lot of factors at play in Sanchez's disappointing 2018, really.
He's striking out a little more, but he's walking a lot more. His popup rate
has jumped from 10 percent to 14 percent, and popups are basically free outs.
He's been wildly streaky, hitting .056/.081/.167 in his first nine games,
then a very strong .288/.394/.676 over his next 30 starts, then a miserable
.075/.197/.094 in 15 games since.
Sanchez糟糕的2018有许多因素，他被K了更多次，但获得了更多的保送。他的popup rate
(鸟飞率?)从10%暴涨到14%，而这些球基本上是自动出局数，他的表现起伏很大，一开始
9场比赛打出.056/.081/.167，之后30场先发打出.288/.394/.676，近15场又只剩下
.075/.197/.094
There's a lot happening here. But a big part of it is that when Sanchez puts
the ball in play, he's not getting the results he'd expect. It's a little
about poor fortune. It's a lot about the fact that ground balls are just
about the worst thing a slow-footed catcher with elite power can do. After
all, weakly hit ground balls from a player without speed are unlikely to end
well. For Sanchez, that's true to an extreme so far.
也许有很多原因，但Sanchez把球打进场内时，并没有得到他预期的效果。这跟运气不好
有一点关。但主要原因在滚地球是这名有着强大力量的慢速捕手最不擅长的事。毕竟，
对于没速度的选手来说，鸟滚不见得会有好的结果。目前为止就是如此
讲一大串就是打到地上的球超级容易出局这样

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