source: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/whats-wrong-with-tanaka/
上礼拜的文 今天在推文看到想说就来翻翻
简短翻译有误请不吝指正
可以开好读我有重传图
前两段省略
Said Yankees manager Joe Girardi to MLB.com after Tanaka’s latest rough
outing Saturday:
“We know that he has to make adjustments, and that’s where our focus is,”
Yankees manager Joe Girardi said. “This guy’s got a really good track
record. He’s had a lot of success here, so it’s not like he’s just coming
over from Japan and struggling. He’s in a rut now, and we think we’ve
discovered a few things that will help him and will continue to help him.”
老吉在5/20田中的惨烈表现后说
"我们知道他必须做出调整，这正是我们致力去做的。田中有相当好的纪录，
也在这获得了不少的成果，现在并不是他刚从日本来而挣扎，他是陷入了某种困境，
而我们发现了几个方法可以帮助他并会持续地对他有益。"
This spring in Florida I was asked to be the “stats guy” for a documentary
on Tanaka being filmed by a Japanese studio. I met with the film crew and
interviewer at a hotel room in Bradenton, Florida, in March. They wanted me
to explore via my laptop — and on camera — what allowed Tanaka to be
successful at the major-league level. Tanaka has used location, a variety of
pitches, and movement to succeed in the majors despite lacking elite velocity.
The film crew had relayed to me that Tanaka said he was trying to rely less
on his four-seam fastball and become more of a sinker-slider-splitter pitcher
to survive in the cramped AL East ballparks. Tanaka has been hurt by home
runs and he did move away from the four-seamer last season, throwing a
splitter on a career-high 30.2% of offerings and a slider at a career-best
rate 27.5%. Only about 6% of his pitches were classified by PITCHf/x as
four-seam fastballs. This season, though, his splitter and slider usage is
down. He’s had a history of elbow issues.
田中虽然球速不快，但靠着进垒点、多种球路以及好的位移，让他得以在大联盟生存。
他试着降低对四缝的依赖，主要靠伸卡(二缝)-滑球-指叉来在危险的美东球场生存。
田中一直为全垒打所苦，而去年他的确少丢四缝了，指叉跟滑球的使用率都是生涯最高的
30.2%和27.5%，四缝的使用率则只剩下6%左右。但今年指叉跟滑球的使用率却减少，可能
跟手肘的伤病史有关。
This season, just about everything is trending in the wrong direction for
Tanaka. Consider his slugging versus pitch type by month over the last two
seasons:
He’s getting crushed by lefties (.352 wOBA), but he’s being hit even more
forcefully by righties (.411).
这一季所有事情都朝着错误的方向前进，先来看看从前两年到现在各球种的被长打率。
田中被左打痛打(.352 wOBA)，但面对右打的表现更为惨烈(.411)
http://imgur.com/j7fC2tg
Tanaka’s trouble appears to be twofold: he’s relying less on his two best
pitchers — his slider and splitter — decreasing their combined usage from
58% last year to 47%. He’s throwing his four-seam fastball more. And he’s
not locating as well with his fastball and splitter.
田中的问题有两个面向：他降低了他最好的两个球种(指叉和滑球)的使用率，使用率
总和从去年的58%降低到今年的47%，增加了四缝的使用率。此外，他也不再能很好地
控制速球和指叉的进垒点。
下图是2017年 四缝VS左打者
http://imgur.com/tLx2tum
下图是2017年 四缝VS右打者
http://imgur.com/MWhZRbD
Tanaka has 24.3% home-run rate per fly ball (HR/FB), and he’s already
allowed three home runs off his four-seam fastball, a pitch he didn’t throw
often last season. The pitch has merely average velocity and spin, and he
cannot afford to miss with it.
田中今年的HR/FB是24.3%(译按:14~16平均14.1%)，四缝是他去年不常投的球种
而今年他已经有三颗四缝被扛出墙。田中的四缝球速跟转速都在平均值左右，
因此他更不能犯错。
Tanaka’s preferred fastball has become the two-seam/sinker. Consider its
location versus righties in 2016, when he was able to move it around the
strike zone:
田中比较仰赖的速球是二缝(伸卡)，下图是2016年二缝VS右打者的热图，当时他可以
把球投在好球带的边缘。
http://imgur.com/DQYT4CI
下图是2017年 二缝VS右打者
http://imgur.com/PH4dW9o
A year ago, Tanaka was able to pitch to the glove- and arm-side parts of the
plate, seemingly at will, with the pitch. This season, he has too often left
the pitch over the heart of the plate. And even when Tanaka just slightly
misses with location, he can be hurt by his home ballpark.
一年前田中似乎可以随心所欲地将二缝投在好球带的两边，但今年他太常投进红中，
即使他丢的离边角只差一点，洋基球场也可能让他付出代价。
When examining Tanaka’s two-seamer/sinker versus lefties in 2016 he was able
most often locate it on the outside edge and at the lower extreme part of the
zone:
Tanaka doesn’t appear to be missing badly with the pitch, but he’s more
often pitching in the zone — and particularly down in the zone — in 2017:
再来看2016年二缝VS左打者的热图，当时他可以将球投在外角以及好球带最下缘
http://imgur.com/owwDh4X
今年虽然没有偏差的太多，但他更常投进好球带里，特别是偏低的地方
http://imgur.com/CgKjBGw
And finally, consider Tanaka’s signature, pitch, his splitter, to lefties in
2016:
Compare that visual to his work to date in 2017. You can see the pitch is
leaking more out over the plate:
Too often the splitter isn’t splitting. The pitch is flattening out and
catching more plate than Tanaka can afford.
最后来看田中的招牌指叉VS左打者
2016
http://imgur.com/Gac1fzj
2017
http://imgur.com/qFPU0mA
可以看到去年的指叉比较常掉出好球带外。今年的指叉则常常不掉，球变平而进入
好球带。
Said Yankees pitching coach Larry Rothschild to MLB.com: “It doesn’t look
like there’s anything with the arm. Sometimes location can be part of the
problem, but that’s not what he’s saying. There’s no indication of [an
injury].”
And if there were an injury, it’s not showing up in velocity. He’s hit 97
mph this year, his highest reading since 2014, and his two-seam/sinker
velocity (91.0 mph) is slightly up from last season.
洋基投手教练Rothschild说：＂手臂看起来没有问题，
有时候丢不准是受伤的并发症, 但他没有说自己不舒服，并没有受伤的迹象。＂
(but that’s not what he’s saying 这句不确定怎么翻Orz 谢谢MLB版t大)
即使田中真的有伤，并没有反映在球速上，今年最快97mph，是从2014以来最快的，
而二缝的球速也比去年稍微提升。
END
最后两段省略XD
补充原文留言的出手点整理
http://imgur.com/HpZhYl0
出手点来到历年低点 可能导致球变平
讨论看看吧 (〞︶〝＊)

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