https://tinyurl.com/44cchxpp
Odds of LeBron returning to Cleveland more than double as free agency
speculation swirls
LBJ去骑士的机会大增，机率上涨2倍有余
By Danny Gallagher
Jun 28, 2026
Rumors that LeBron James could return to Cleveland have pushed traders to
more than double the odds of a homecoming over the past week.
The market for James' next team shows the price on Cleveland climbing from
10% on June 21 to as high as the high-20s by June 26, before settling at 22%
as of June 28. Over the same stretch, the chance he stays in Los Angeles or
retires fell from 70% to 50%. James going to Miami now carries a price of
16%, while Golden State sits at 14%.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. Kalshi is not affiliated
with Lebron James or the NBA.
LeBron and LA
The speculation has grown louder as talks between James and his current team
have reportedly stalled.
Yahoo Sports reported that Los Angeles is weighing its options now that the
team has roughly $50 million in cap space to work with.
ESPN’s Shams Charania said, “There was a check-in call made, to my
understanding, early in free agency once teams were able to start negotiating
with their own free agents after the end of the NBA Finals. Since then though
there hasn’t been much communication, from my understanding, between [Los
Angeles] and LeBron James’ side. And certainly not an offer yet.”
LeBron returning to Cleveland
So far, rumors seem to be driving the market’s prediction that LeBron’s
free-agency status will take him back to Cleveland for his final chapter in
pro-basketball. One of those rumors has attracted attention because of the
person who shared it.
Cleveland.com's Chris Pugh writes that local fitness trainer Joshua Teplitz
posted on his X page, “Supposedly, LeBron IS coming back for a third and
final stint.”
It may sound innocuous and just a post from a local fan who hopes their most
famous pro-basketball player returns to their hometown for one more run on
the court. However, Teplitz accurately predicted that James would return to
Cleveland in 2014. So the post is getting a lot of viral attention.
Some sports media members aren’t so sure Cleveland will be able to make a
deal to bring James back to his home state’s pro-basketball team.
ESPN's Brian Windhorst said on The Pat McAfee Show that he thinks it's
unlikely James will go back to Cleveland because of salary restrictions since
they “can only offer LeBron $4 million bucks.”
“One of the things I’ve learned about LeBron is you never count his money
and never spend his money,” Windhorst added. “So, making assumptions that
LeBron would take a lot less money, I see people making that assumption, and
I just don’t think it’s smart.”
Windhorst also noted if Cleveland wanted to make that happen, they would have
to give up a star player to Los Angeles like Jarrett Allen.
“I think if [Cleveland was] willing to do that, they could have LeBron,”
Windhorst added. “Obviously, LeBron would have to want to with [Cleveland].
But your pathway to pay LeBron the money is to trade Jarrett Allen for him.
The Lakers would kill for Jarrett Allen. Kill for him! They would do that
deal in 17 tenths of a second.”
Even with those hurdles in place, traders haven't backed off the reunion
story.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict
James staying with Los Angeles or retiring: 50%
James going to Cleveland: 22%
James going to Miami: 16%
上面的文章概要在讲，因为湖人和LBJ的新合约谈判没结果，所以在赌盘反映，LBJ回
骑士的机率就越来越高, 6/21最低点是10%, 机率一度飙高到30%
温胖也提到，如果骑士肯拿LBJ来签换Jarrett Allen，湖人人求之不得。
但"大盘"走向，LBJ留在湖人或退休的机率，还是压倒性最高的。
然后也有些许消息提到，热火和勇士，对于LBJ也有兴趣，
最后LBJ留在湖人/退休机率50%，去骑士22%，去热火16%