摆烂坦好的抢状元需要几胜呢？少于25胜
https://tinyurl.com/4bachzmm
Zach Kram, The Ringer
11/3发布的文章，虽然晚了但内容还不错。
“Losing teams are about to tankardhis season,” our Kevin O’Connor wrote. The Athletic’s John Hollinger observed that after Wembanyama’s
spectacular showing in Vegas, “tanking just became cool.” One general
managerold ESPN that the French teenager would spark “a race to the
bottom like we’ve never seen.”
看完Wembanyama’s在拉斯维加的爆棚表现后，Hollinger观察到，“这季输球的球队要摆
烂坦好”，“坦好开始变得吸引人了。”
一位球队GM表示这位法国的年轻人会引发了“前所未见的逐底竞争”
As a reminder, the NBA flattened its lottery odds in 2019. Now, teams with
the three worst records have the same reduced chance of landing the top pick.
Overall, the new odds made it so that the three worst teams (especially the
worst two) are less likely to win the lottery, while teams 4-13 (especially
those in the 6-9 range) are more likely to win the lottery than before.
2019年，NBA压低了乐透的机率，现在战绩最烂的三队有相同机率获得前段顺位签。
总体来说，新的赔率让最烂三队（特别是最烂和次烂）比较难赢得乐透，排名倒数4-13名
（特别是6-9之间的）更有机会赢得乐透。
新和旧乐透机率
https://i.imgur.com/OGFoMkS.png
The model shows there’s very little difference in no. 1 pick equity below 25
wins:
* At 10 wins, a team has a 14.0 percent chance to land no. 1.
* At 15 wins, it’s also at 14.0 percent.
* At 20 wins, it’s at 13.8 percent.
* At 25 wins, it’s at 11.6 percent.
* At 30 wins, it’s at 7.7 percent.
* At 35 wins, it’s at 2.7 percent.
* At 40 wins, it’s at 0.6 percent.
少于25胜的机率没差太多
10胜 14.0%
15胜 14.0%
20胜 13.8%
25胜 11.6%
30胜 7.7%
35胜 2.7%
40胜 0.6%
https://i.imgur.com/Ozs9tCN.jpg
Beyond 25 and especially 30 wins, each additional victory carries a heftier
cost. But there’s minimal penalty before teams get to that point. Heck, at
10 wins, a team has a maximum 14 percent chance to win the lottery, and at 21
wins (more than double!), it still has a 14 percent chance after rounding.
超过25胜特别是30胜，每多1胜会带来更多的成本。在那之前，球队没有什么劣势。
21胜（多出两倍！）的球队4四舍五入后跟10胜的球队都有14%的机率获得状元。
This breakdown explains why the teams projected to finish among the league’s
worst shouldn’t sweat their surprise early wins—they’re a long way from
the 25-win mark, where wins actually start to hurt. It also illustrates why
the most egregious tanking examples we see this season might not come via a “
race to the bottom,” but rather from teams on pace for 35(ish) wins who
throw in the towel during March and April. Every additional win from 30-35
costs a whole percentage point of predicted no. 1 pick odds.
球队不需要过于担心季初的胜场，距离25胜还有一段距离。
这也解释了最令人吃惊的坦好例子不是来“逐底竞争”
而是3-4月取得35胜之间的球队（放弃季后赛）。
30到35胜之间的每场赢球，会降低1%抽到状元签
Extra wins used to be much more damaging to a team’s no. 1 pick hopes,
before the league flattened the lottery distribution. For instance, with the
new lottery system, the difference in no. 1 pick odds between 10 wins and 25
wins is just 2.4 percentage points; under the old system, that difference was
13.8 percentage points—in other words,ix times more costly.
过去在联盟压低了乐透的分配前，多的胜场对状元签造成极大的破坏。
例如，在新的乐透机制下，10胜和25胜获得状元签的差别，差别只有2.4%。旧的机制下，
两者的差异为13.8%，成本高于6倍。
The same pattern also applies to teams hoping for either the first or second
pick this season—if they also think that guard Scoot Henderson is a
generational prospect. (By definition, can a draft class have multiple “
generational” prospects?) Once again, under the new system, wins don’t
really start to hurt a team’s chances until the mid-20s.
同样的模式也可套用在想要状元或榜眼的球队，如果他们觉得后卫 Scoot Henderson 未
来发展不错。
在新的机制下，20多胜以前的赢球不太会伤害球队的机率。
https://i.imgur.com/imoeU6J.jpg
Yet the vast majority of tanking’s value comes from the greater possibility
of landing a top pick, because those selections areo much more impactfulthan the rest. And it’s important to remember that, in the new system, no
team has aoodhance at the no. 1 pick. Unless they have multiple picks
from trades, even the very worst teams have only a 14 percent chance to win
Wembanyama’s services.
坦好的最大价值来自获得更多机率抽到前段顺位签，因为他们比其他更有影响力。
记住，在新的机制下，没有一支球队有“好的机会”获得状元签，除非他们有很多交易来
的选秀签，就算是最烂的球队也只有14%得到Wembanyama。
心得：
别担心啦～
爵士还有16胜～