来源:The Athletic(须付费)
https://theathletic.com/3328595/2022/05/23/nba-draft-combine-analysis/
作者:John Hollinger与Sam Vecenie
The 2022 NBA Draft Combine has come and gone, with the event achieving its
usual goal of kicking off the draft cycle in earnest. John Hollinger was on
the ground in Chicago, and Sam Vecenie worked the phone lines from afar, each
tirelessly drinking coffee and gaining intel from the event. Here’s what
they learned:
2022年NBA选秀联合试训已经结束并圆满落幕了。John Hollinger也出席了芝加哥的这个活
动,Sam Vecenie则不在现场透过电话努力工作,两个人以靠着大量的咖啡不眠不休地蒐集情
报。这些是他们所获取的消息:
How do we make the combine more valuable for attendees?
The first thing everyone talks about at the combine is how to make it better.
To its credit, the league has made some progress, encouraging five-on-five
participation, streamlining the “agent workouts” (more on these in a
minute) and tweaking the event’s timing so that only four teams are still
playing when it happens.
That said, what do you think is going to happen when a couple hundred people
get together to talk shop? As ever, the gripes were abundant:
我们如何使联合试训对于参加者来说更有价值?
大家讨论联合试训的第一件事就是我们如何使它更好。为了公信力,联盟是有做一些调整,
鼓励更多的5v5参与,精简化了"经纪人体测"(一分钟后会谈到更多)并调整活动的流程所以
只会有四队同时打球。
你觉得当几百人聚在了一起谈论这些公事会发生什么?如同过往,抱怨还是很多的:
A continuing bug in the program is getting the top-ranked players to
participate. While no sane person thinks a potential top-five pick will
actually play basketball here, the reluctance of many prospects to submit to
health and medical examinations has been a sore spot. The league can’t
compel players who are not yet part of the NBA to participate in such tests,
but one wonders if it could create a workaround in the next CBA. For
instance, requiring players who want to enter the draft early to submit to
health and medical exams at the combine would effectively eliminate the
problem.
第一个一直以来都有的问题是没办法让那些最顶尖的球员参加联合试训。不过不会有理智
的人会认为一个可能是前五顺位的球员会真的去联合试训打球,这些球员对于参与健康与医
疗测试的意愿低迷才是痛点。联盟至今仍然无法强制要求还不是NBA一份子的球员参与这些
测试,但大家都在思考能不能在下一次CBA中达成这一个部分。举例来说,要求想要提早参加
NBA选秀的球员在联合体测时缴交一份健康与医疗测试会很有效的解决这个问题。
A more maddening issue has been players’ unwillingness to participate in the
five-on-five portion of the combine, even if they probably should to improve
their draft stock. In a way, this mechanism could end up being
self-correcting. Several players moved up teams’ boards in 2021 partly as a
result of playing in Chicago, including a few who vaulted into the first
round (notably 12th pick Joshua Primo, 24th pick Josh Christopher and 25th
pick Quentin Grimes).
另外一个令人抓狂的问题是不少球员对于参与5v5对抗的意愿非常低落,即使是在参加后非
常有可能提高他们选秀行情的情况下。在某种程度下,这个机制可以很好的让球员自我修
正。有些球员在2021因为他们在5v5对抗的好表现进入了球队们的眼帘,这其中包含了几个
成功杀入第一轮的球员(最著名的有第12顺位的Joshua Primo,24顺位的Josh Christopher
及25顺位的Quentin Grimes。)
With this year’s solid play of Santa Clara’s Jalen Williams and some others
foreboding the same (more on that below), one wonders if agents will stop
overplaying their hands. Several players who either stood pretty firmly in
second-round territory (Marquette’s Justin Lewis, Duke’s Wendell Moore) or
had little to lose by playing five-on-five (G League Ignite’s Jaden Hardy,
Milwaukee’s Patrick Baldwin, Michigan State’s Max Christie) nonetheless sat
out that portion. Amusingly, NC State’s Terquavion Smith pulled out of the
second day of games after “proving” himself with a 6-for-17 shooting
performance in the first one.
在今年圣塔克拉拉大学的Jalen Williams及一些其他人打出身价之后(等一下会提),开始有
人思考是否能阻止经纪人们的过度插手操作。有些看起来稳稳地只会在第二轮的球员(马奎
特的Justin Louis,杜克的Wendell Moore)及即使打5v5也没什么能失去的球员(G League的
Jaden Hardy,密尔瓦基的Patrick Baldwin,密西根州大的Max Christie)仍然决定不参与那
个部分。更有趣的是,北卡州大的Terquavion Smith在第一场用17投6中的表现"证明"了自
己的实力以后退出了第二天的试训。
The so-called pro days or “agent workouts” arranged by agent groups
continue to be a leading source of griping from front office personnel. These
are little more than shows run by the agents to showcase their clients
running and dunking, and definitely not playing basketball against another
human being. The general opinion was that they were near-worthless as a
player-evaluation tool and incredibly time-consuming at a time when execs don
’t have a ton of free hours.
被称为职业日或是"经纪人体测"(因为常常是经纪人团队举办)的测试持续地遭受很多制服
组人员的抱怨。因为这些与其说是经纪人的客户们展现自己的舞台,不如说只是经纪人安排
的一场秀,而且绝对不会与任何人类有篮球对抗。大家有一个共识就是这些Showcase对于球
员评价几乎是毫无价值且对于忙碌的管理层来说浪费时间(注:曾凡博就是退出了联合试训
并只参与经纪人举办的Showcase。)
Nonetheless, team reps felt obligated to attend because everyone else was
going, and because they didn’t want to insult the agents. Everyone admits it
’s mostly fake hustle, but in some cases, there is real value for team execs
who haven’t been on the road as much. If they haven’t seen a prospect in
the flesh yet, this can be their best chance to get eyes on a first-round
prospect they expect to be long gone before they pick. Occasionally, an
agency might roll out a three-on-three that features a couple of interesting
prospects.
即使如此,各队的代表认为他们还是有义务参与经纪人体测因为其他人都会去且他们不想得
罪经纪人。大家都默认这些Showcase里面的表现都是虚假的奋斗,但对某些还没出过办公室
的管理层来说还是有一些真实价值。如果他们还没看过任何一名新秀,这有可能是这些管理
层能获得一些看看一些距离他们顺位很遥远的新秀的最好机会。正常来说,经纪公司都可能
会安排一场由几名有趣新秀打的3v3比赛。
While the league at least coordinated to put a bunch of these workouts in
Chicago rather than forcing team execs to travel hither and yon (a few others
are concentrated on Southern California next week), that puts additional
pressure on the week’s already compressed schedule. Staff often had to go
from long days interviewing prospects directly to agent workouts at night.
The most prominent emotion by Friday was exhaustion.
虽然联盟至少把这些试训举办在了芝加哥并让管理层不用到处旅行(有一些会在下周聚集在
南加州),但这使该周原本就已经很浓缩的时程表被施予了更多压力。工作人员常常都要在
早上面试潜力球员并在晚上在赶去参加经纪人展示。在周五时普遍的情绪是满满的疲惫。
Intel dump 各种情报
But enough of our whining. What other scuttlebutt emerged from the week in
Chicago?
抱怨够多了。我们这礼拜在芝加哥还听到了哪些内线呢?
Orlando winning the lottery could throw a monkey wrench on draft night. While
most draft analysts have Jabari Smith Jr. rated as the top prospect, John
Hollinger Spies think the Magic are leaning toward selecting Chet Holmgren.
Of course, that would play to their type. This front office’s track record
reveals an obsession with length, so one can easily connect the dots there.
乐透的赢家奥兰多魔术可能会打乱大家的选秀计画。虽然大部分选秀专家都觉得Jabari
Smith Jr.是本届最好的潜力,John Hollinger认为魔术倾向选择Chet Holmgren。当然,
Chet非常符合他们的球风。魔术管理层的历史纪录也透露他们对于长人的热爱,所以大家都
能推敲出来。
On the other hand, some league insiders immediately second-guessed that first
instinct. Are the Magic just playing on their length-based reputation to bait
Oklahoma City into trading up from No. 2? Let the game of smoke signals begin.
同时,有些联盟内线立刻想到了另一种可能性。有可能其实不是魔术对于长人的热爱,而是
他们想要迫使奥克拉荷马雷霆将第二顺位向上交易?烟雾战的号角吹响了。
Most people who spoke with The Athletic expect a lot of trade and player
movement leading up to the draft and beyond. Even in the lottery, we could
see some action. Sacramento has a clear win-now expectation, several front
office members on the last year of their contracts and the fourth pick in the
draft burning a hole in its pocket. One suspects that pick might be in play
in return for some wing help.
大部分跟The Athletic专家聊过的人都预期选秀前与当天将会有很多交易与球员动向。甚
至连乐透区都有可能要操作。沙加缅度国王位于一个Win Now的时间点,几名合约走到尽头
的管理层人员及第四顺位都使这状况成为烫手山芋。有些人认为这个选秀权可能会拿去买
侧翼上的帮助回来。
The pick that seems even more certain to be on the move is Portland’s at No.
7, with sources saying the Blazers will push to immediately put a competitive
team around Damian Lillard rather than start over. Detroit’s Jerami Grant
has been the hot name here, but the Blazers could look at other options.
另外一个看起来也会被交易的顺位是波特兰拓荒者的第七顺位。有内线说拓荒者比起打掉
重练更倾向于围绕Lillard重整并努力赢球。活塞的Jerami Grant是流言中的一个目标但拓
荒者也有可能寻找其他选项。
We were critical of the Lakers’ decision to not pay a team cash to take
DeAndre Jordan at the trade deadline, but it may pay off at the draft. L.A.
has been open about using its remaining cash stash (the Lakers can put $4.7
million into a trade between now and July 1) to buy its way into the second
round, where the Lakers currently do not have a pick. The Lakers’ scouting
department has built up an impressive track record of finding sleepers late
in the draft, so it will be interesting to see who they might target. (One
other note for the cap nerds: The Lakers still could have done a Jordan trade
and then bought their second-rounder in a pre-arranged trade when the new cap
year’s cash rolls over on July 1; that has been done before, but also would
have impacted their flexibility for 2022-23.)
我们对于湖人交易截止日不想付钱清DeAndre Jordan的操作有诸多批评,不过他的好处可能
在选秀大会上会得到回报。本届没有任何选秀权的湖人正在考虑使用剩余的预算(湖人可以
在7/1之前在交易中投入470万)来购买一个第二轮选秀权。湖人球探部门对于在第二轮淘宝
有着非常辉煌的纪录,所以我们会很好奇谁会是湖人的可能目标。(给薪资书呆子的笔记:湖
人仍然可以用预先谈好的手段来清掉DAJ并同时用7/1之后的预算买一个二轮;这之前有做过
不过也会影响2022-2023的操作弹性。)
Other teams with multiple picks are expected to try to move up in the draft,
which could make trading down profitable for those picking in the late
lottery and teens. Oklahoma City, for instance, has picks at No. 12 and No.
30 and a surfeit of future picks to sweeten a deal; using those to move up
and nab a targeted player seems like a no-brainer. Other multi-first-rounder
teams to watch include San Antonio (Nos. 9, 20 and 25), Charlotte (Nos. 13
and 15) and Memphis (Nos. 22 and 29). San Antonio, in particular, had a sea
of staff at the combine intently watching the proceedings.
有多个选秀权的球队会更想向上交易,这可能使得那些目标在选那堆青少年及乐透后段球员
并愿意向下球队的球队有利可图。举例来说,奥克拉荷马雷霆拥有第12与第30顺位以及多个
未来选秀权就可能使得这个操作更加甜美;用这些选秀权来获取一名相较没有疑虑的球员。
其他可以关注的多选秀权球队还有圣安东尼奥马刺(9 20 25),夏洛特黄蜂(13 15)及灰熊(
22 29)。尤其是马刺,他们在联合体测中派出了人员海来密切关注体测过程。
Finally, Oklahoma City’s pick at No. 30 was the topic of other speculation.
Michigan forward Caleb Houstan was notably absent from the week’s
proceedings, with many league insiders suspecting he had a promise from a
team in return for shutting down his draft process. Suspicion immediately
went to the Thunder, given their surplus of picks and long history of making
their draft pick in April. Houstan wouldn’t even be the first Michigan guy
they did this with. (Hello, Mitch McGary!)
最后,雷霆队的30号签也是大家谈论的一个话题。密西根前锋Caleb Houston缺席了体测,有
不少消息来源怀疑他已经获得球队承诺并答应中止他的选秀行程(注:答应会选,所以也不要
你再打高)。怀疑者立刻将箭头指向了雷霆,因为他们过往事会在四月就已经给出大量的选
秀决定与承诺。Houstan也不是他们第一个这么做的密西根球员(哈囉 Mitch McGary!)
A Shaedon Sharpe sighting Shaedon Sharpe观察
If the NBA Draft has a mystery man within the top 10, it is indeed Sharpe, a
6-foot-5 wing from Canada who committed to Kentucky early this season, got on
campus for the second semester, sat out the season and then declared for the
draft as an early entrant. He is eligible for the draft by nature of having
graduated high school before the 2021-22 NBA season began and by turning 19
before the end of 2022.
如果说本届选秀前十顺位有一个谜团,那绝对是Sharpe。这名这季答应加入肯塔基身高6尺
5吋的加拿大侧翼,第二学期才抵达学校并做壁上观,最后甚至提早宣布投入选秀。他符合选
秀的资格因为他已经从高中毕业并会在2022结束前满19岁。
Evaluators got a chance to see him go through one of those one-on-zero
workouts on Monday held by his agency. Per the sources in attendance, he ran
through a number of drills put on by trainers and got a chance to show off
some of his shot-making ability and leaping. Still, the main takeaway from
evaluators and decision-makers who spoke with The Athletic was essentially, “
What did we actually learn here?”
评价者在他的经纪人举办的单人Workout才得到机会一窥他的庐山真面目。从参与者的消息
来源表示,他进行了数个有训练员参与的训练并展示了他的投射技巧与跳高。依然,我们从
评价者与决策者得到最主要的扣分是"他们从那边得知了什么?"
As mentioned above, that is a typical takeaway from evaluators sitting
through these types of workouts. But it felt a bit more pronounced with Sharpe
’s for a few reasons, including the absence of valuable game film on him. A
lot of what came through from sources was that absolutely nothing was done at
game speed, with most of the drills in terms of his handle being executed
more slowly than what he’ll face on an NBA court. He didn’t do anything
complex. For a player who few have actually seen at high-level game speed
much, the workout didn’t provide any insight into the actual questions to
which decision-makers would like some semblance of an answer before
potentially selecting him on draft night. It was a prime example of why these
pro days can be so frustrating.
如同我前面说的,经纪人所举办的Showcase对于评价者来说本身就是个扣分。但Sharpe得到
扣分的多项理由更多,其中包含了他不存在的实战影片。关于Sharpe的情报都不是在比赛的
节奏下取得,在他控制下的训练中他所做做的比他会在NBA赛场上面对的要慢上许多。他也
没做任何复杂的事。对于一名没有面对过任何高强度比赛速度的球员来说,他的workout并
没有回答到选秀会决策者对于他的疑虑。这也是一个案例说明为什么这些经纪人showcase
如此令人感到沮丧。
This shouldn’t be mistaken for saying that Sharpe performed poorly. Those in
attendance said he looked very bouncy, and his in-person length impressed
those who were seeing him for the first time. He didn’t burn the net down or
anything with his shooting, but hit enough shots off the catch and his own
dribble — particularly stepbacks and side-steps — to showcase his long-term
potential. But no one is going to be rushing to the podium based on Monday’s
workout.
这不能与Sharpe的表现混为一谈。参与Showcase的人说他看起来非常的会跳且身长对于第
一次看到他的人来说非常出色。他虽然没有展示出火烫的手感或是什么投射能力,但他有展
现出足够的接球后投射与自己运球后投射的能力