来源: The USA Today
网址: https://tinyurl.com/y8wpxphm
What is the peak age in the NBA? Probably 27 years old
NBA球员的巅峰年纪大概是几岁? 差不多是27岁
Folks around the NBA often debate when players enter their prime and players
around the league will often brag different answers when asked.
有在研究NBA的人常常会在争论什么时候球员开始进入他的巅峰时间，而球员被问到这种题
目的时候也会有不一样的答案。
According to our research department, the average age of an All-NBA player is
27.7 years old. This dates back to the season the award debuted in 1946-47.
In fact, the average age of an All-NBA recipient has been within one year of
that mark in each season for the past 20 years.
根据Hoopshype的研究部门分析，数据显示NBA最佳队伍的平均年龄是27.7岁，这资料是可
以回溯到这奖项颁布的第一年1946-47球季。而在过去20年，每一届NBA最佳队伍的平均年
龄都落在27.7上下各一年的范围内。
That’s strikingly similar to a paper published by sports economists David
Berri and Rob Simmons, which suggested that the peak performance of an NBA
player is when they are 26 (via VICE Sports):
这结果也跟之前运动经济学者David Berri跟Rob Simmons发表的论文结论类似，他们认为
NBA球员的巅峰年季是在26岁。
“[We] looked at the impact various factors have on NBA performance. Aging
was one of those factors, and what we found is that player performance tends
to peak around 26. After that, players start to decline: slowly at first, and
then precipitously.”
“我们去看哪些因子会影响NBA球员的表现，年纪是一个因子，而我们的结果发现球员的表
现会在26岁达到巅峰。而在那之后，球员表现开始衰退，一开始衰退的速度慢，但是后来
就会加快。”
Only twice (1996-97 and the following year in 1997-98) has the average age of
those selected to the All-NBA team exceeded 30 years old. Those seasons were
inflated partially because they were the final two seasons that Michael
Jordan (34) played before coming out of retirement in 2001. They were also
his final two selections in his career.
只有两次(1996-97以及次年1997-98球季)两次的NBA最佳队伍平均年龄超过30岁。那两次有
部分原因是因为那两年是Michael Jordan(34岁)退休前打最后打的两年，虽然在2001年他
又复出。那两次也是他生涯最后两次被选为最佳队伍。
Others older than 30 who received the nod those seasons included: Karl Malone
(34), Hakeem Olajuwon (34), Patrick Ewing (34), John Stockton (34) and Reggie
Miller (32). The 1998-99 season represented a changing of the guard with Kobe
Bryant (20), Kevin Garnett (22), Allen Iverson (23), Antonio McDyess (25),
Jason Kidd (25), Chris Webber (25) all receiving their first All-NBA
recognition.
其他几位超过30岁被选为最佳队伍的有：Karl Malone(34)，Hakeem Olajuwon(34)，
Patrick Ewing(34)，John Stockton(34)，以及Reggie Miller(32)。而1998-99球季的最
佳队伍则是代表后卫群的转变，有Kobe Bryant(20)，Kevin Garnett(22)，Allen
Iverson(23)，Antonio McDyess(25)，Jason Kidd(25)，Chris Webber(25)，他们都在那
年第一次进入最佳队伍名单。
Overall, All-NBA selections have come after Age-30 seasons in less than one
quarter (24.0 percent) of the instances. Since 2000-01, the rate has dropped
to just 21.1 percent.
总体来说，NBA最佳队伍超过30岁的成员大概都少于1/4 (24趴)，而在2000-01球季之后，
这比例更降至21.1趴。
An interesting takeaway is that only a dozen players have ever made an
All-NBA team after turning 35.
一个有趣的小知识: 只有约莫10几位球员在35岁后还可以被选为NBA最佳队伍。
Kareem Abdul-Jabaar accomplished it three times while Malone achieved this
feat on three occasions. Tim Duncan, the oldest player to reach All-NBA
status since 1986, is the only other player to be named to All-NBA honors two
times after turning 35.
Kareem Abdul-Jabaar三次，Malone三次，而Tim Duncan则是在1986年后入选NBA最佳阵容
的最老球员，在35岁后入选两次。
This is particularly fascinating because LeBron James turned 34 years old on
Sunday. While he has shown that the typical aging curve does not impact him
the way it has so many others, it’s also true that he will soon be entering
a point in where few have been considered among the best in the league.
这个现象在星期日LBJ满34岁就更显有趣了。虽然他有展现出年纪的影响，但是这影响似乎
没有像在其他球员身上影响的那么多，但是他也进入到一个普遍认为不会是在巅峰期间的
年纪区间了。
Players including Bryant, Jordan, Ewing, Dominique Wilkins and David Robinson
all earned their final All-NBA nods when they were 34.
像是Bryant，Jordan，Ewing，Dominique Wilkins跟David Robinson都在34岁拿到他们最
后一次NBA最佳队伍荣誉。
For all intents and purposes, the Los Angeles Lakers superstar is once again
an MVP candidate this season. Kevin Pelton recently suggested that James is
defying the undefeated Father Time (via ESPN):
从各方面来看，这位湖人超级明星本季又再次展现MVP候选人的表现，Kevin Pelton最近说
LBJ一点都没有体力下滑的样子:
“Even an aging curve with gentle decline like James has experienced so far
during the regular season will typically get steeper (downward) as a player
heads toward his mid-30s. That makes it all the more surprising that instead
of declining sharply, James has instead trended the other direction … [But]
as he reaches his mid-30s, declining athleticism could finally become an
issue for James, particularly if his improved 3-point shooting proves fluky.”
“年纪以及体力衰退像是LBJ目前在正规赛所表现的会随着球员进入三字头中段后会更佳明
显，所以没看到曲线向下，看到LBJ的曲线似乎跟其他人不一样更让人感到惊奇。...但
是，当LBJ进入三字头中段，体能的衰退最终将会是LBJ得要面临的课题，尤其是他目前展
现的三分球若只是运气好。”
It’s worth noting that James reportedly spends an annual $1.5 million taking
care of his body, which has likely improved his career longevity despite the
absurd workload he has had thus far.
值得注意的是，有报导LBJ每年花150万镁在保养他的身体，尽管以他目前离谱的工作量，
这很有可能可以帮助他延长他的生涯。
But when signing players to longer-term deals, it’s important to keep in
mind how rare it is for someone to be considered one of the best players as
they get older. As such, it’s no surprise many deals offered to players past
30 are often considered the worst in the NBA.
但是讲到球队给球员长期约，要想到一个球员已经是进入生涯后期但是还是被认为最佳球
员是有多么少见，也因此，对于NBA球队若是给年纪超过30岁的球员长约常被认为是烂约也
就不足为奇了。