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yuyuen (肥軟)
2016-05-07 21:12:12How Spurs’ free-agency run at Durant might work
http://goo.gl/Hs5A7a
OKLAHOMA CITY — This just in: The Spurs are interested in making a run at
the hottest free agent on the market this summer. This is not exactly
breaking news. In fact, it sounds like old news.
The Spurs, after all, made a successful pitch to LaMarcus Aldridge last July.
This year’s target would be Kevin Durant, who for now is playing for
Oklahoma City and against the Spurs in the Western Conference semifinals.
马刺队对自由球员市场上最火热的球员感到兴趣，听起来不是一件新鲜事，毕竟他们才刚
成功追求到LaMarcus Aldridge。而今年的目标就是目前仍和马刺在西区第二轮厮杀的”
雷帝” Kevin Durant。
No doubt discussions have already begun among the Spurs’ brain trust about
the salary cap machinations that must be made to make Durant — or any other
high-profile free agent — a maximum contract offer. Durant didn’t do much
to quell the KD-to-Spurs rumor swirl before the start of the series, when he
unleashed an unprompted ode to Gregg Popovich
(This is the part where we remind everyone all of the below is based on a
hypothetical — IF and only IF Durant decides to leave OKC after his contract
expires this summer).
不难想像马刺队的高层相信可以解决薪资上限的问题来得到KD或者是其他高评价的任意球
员，不难想像KD将会拿到一份顶薪，而且在马刺雷霆第一战开打前，KD称赞过Gregg
Popovich后，KD到马刺这个传言就不曾停过。而且只要KD没有说他会留雷霆，一切都是有
可能的。
Now that we’ve cleared that up …
Here are the basics of the math involved for the Spurs: The team is committed
to about $73.6 million in guaranteed salary next year, due seven players
(Aldridge, Kawhi Leonard, Tony Parker, Danny Green, Boris Diaw, Patty Mills
and Kyle Anderson). The salary cap is projected to skyrocket to around $92
million by some estimation, which works in the Spurs’ favor here. A max
contract for a player of Durant’s tenure (nine seasons) could earn a maximum
of $27.6 million next season based on that cap figure.
就让我们动起来，一起来看看这想法行不行吧。
关于马刺队有几个基本的观念，这支球队有大约73.6M的保证约在下一个球季，包含七个
球员(Aldridge, Kawhi Leonard, Tony Parker, Danny Green, Boris Diaw, Patty
Mills and Kyle Anderson).，薪资上限可以预期为92M左右，而KD可以预期会拿到一份起
价27.6M的顶级薪水。
A bit of subtraction reveals the gulf the Spurs must cross. They will need to
find about $9.2 million additional cap space to make a credible offer to
Durant. It can be done, though the task gets more complicated if any of Tim
Duncan ($5.5 million), Manu Ginobili ($2.9 million) or David West ($1.55
million) opt to exercise player options for next season. Jonathon Simmons has
a team option for a little more than $874,000.
有一些可以减少薪资空间的情形是马刺可以做的，它们需要找到大约9.2M的额外薪资空间
去提供KD薪水，如果Tim Duncan ($5.5 million), Manu Ginobili ($2.9 million) or
David West ($1.55 million)这三人有球员选项的球员都跳出合约，还有Jonathon
Simmons的球队选项，大约$874,000.是可以省下来的，尽管这有点复杂，但是这是可能发
生的。
Assuming Duncan and Ginobili retire — or opt out and re-sign on veteran
minimum deals that won’t count against the Spurs’ cap space– $9.2 million
seems to be the number the Spurs are working with in this scenario.
假设石佛和鬼切都退休了，或是跳出合约重新签一张老将底薪，这一些将不会计算到马刺
的薪资空间，所以9.2M将会是马刺完成这笔交易的魔术数字。
There are two obvious avenues for getting there, though the Spurs’ resident
geniuses in the front office likely have plotted some that are less obvious.
If the Spurs could find a trade partner to absorb Danny Green’s $10 million
next season (and two more seasons after that), it would appear to do the
trick without gutting the rest of the roster. The Spurs might also explore
dealing the combination of Boris Diaw (due $6.5 million next season) and
Patty Mills (due $3.5 million) to arrive at the same savings.
目前有两条显而易见的方法让马刺来达到目标，如果马刺可以找到交易对象来交易”圣堂
射手” Danny Green，目前10M的合约，往后还剩下两年，这是最少动到名单的方式。或
者马刺将寻求交易Boris Diaw (due $6.5 million next season) 以及Patty Mills
(due $3.5 million)来达到目标。
It is far too early for Spurs fans to line up to buy No. 35 jerseys in silver
and black. The salary cap gymnastics required for the Spurs to make that
dream scenario happen, however, are less complicated than one might think.
排队来买35号黑衫这件事还略嫌早了点，但这的确有想像空间，而且比想像中的简单许多
。
看完了外电，让我来简单的帮马刺队试算一下，这件事情发生的可能。就用这篇文章的假
设来计算好了。
可以预期的今年的薪资上限会是:大约$90M左右，作者是预测92M。
另外就是Kevin Durant的薪水，依照Salary Cap来设算，将会是起薪大约27.6M左右。
以上两点是作者的预测，其实也蛮合理的预期。
他觉得马刺只差9.2M左右的空间，
(A) 交易掉Danny Green(10M)
或者是
(B) Boris Diaw+Patty Mills(10.1M)就行。
但是本人认为作者把事情想得太简单了，应该不是这样的。
(1)马刺明年有首轮选秀权，会占薪资空间大约1M，要放弃，可能会随着上述交易一起弄
走，换往后的选秀权
(2)最低名单人数为13人，一定要补齐才能开季。
(3)不只Danny Green要走，Patty Mills也要跟着走，才能完成交易。
Player 调整后 帐上
LaMarcus Aldridge $ 20,500,000 $ 20,500,000
Kawhi Leonard $ 17,500,000 $ 17,500,000
Tony Parker $ 14,445,313 $ 14,445,313
Kyle Anderson $ 1,192,080 $ 1,192,080
Tim Duncan $ 5,500,000 PO
Manu Ginobili $ 2,940,630 PO
David West $ 1,552,000 PO
Jonathon Simmons $ 874,636 TO
Danny Green $ 10,000,000 交易
Boris Diaw $ 6,500,000 $ 6,500,000
Patrick Mills $ 3,578,948 交易
第一轮 $ 1,000,000 交易
CAP Hold $ 543,471
CAP Hold $ 543,471
CAP Hold $ 543,471
CAP Hold $ 543,471
CAP Hold $ 543,471
CAP Hold $ 543,471
CAP Hold $ 543,471