※ [本文转录自 PACERS 看板 #1MKx9gu8 ]
作者: k960674 (Kaul) 看板: PACERS
标题: [外絮] Monta Ellis真的是个不好的防守者吗？
时间: Tue Nov 24 08:42:15 2015
http://goo.gl/WhdSSE
Is Monta Ellis Still a Bad Defensive Player?
A quick google search of “Monta Ellis Bad Defender” will turn up a host of
interesting web pages. The very first link sends you to 2014’s annual
feature by Tim Kawakami naming the “All NBA No-Defense Teams” in which
Monta lands an “Honorable Mention” spot on the dubious squad. The second
link finds you reading a fascinating rebuttal on NBA Reddit titled, “Why do
people think Monta Ellis is a terrible defender?”
稍微google一下"Monta Ellis Bad Defender"这个关键字会出现很多有趣的网页。第一个
连结是Tim Kawakami在2014年所写，命名为“NBA不防守第一队”的文章，而Monta则是其
中可有可无的“荣誉提名”。第二个连结则是NBA Reddit的网站，标题为“为何人们认为
Monta Ellis防守很烂？”的文章，会让你觉得读了个有趣的反论。
Both posts are mostly reliant on the good old fashioned “eye test” with a
few hard-to-contextualize stats thrown in, supposedly offering some measure
of argumentative support. Kawakami notes that in 2014, the 37-year-old Vince
Carter was statistically better defensively than Monta Ellis. The blogger on
NBA Reddit argued that according to the NBA’s Player Tracking stats, Ellis
was an above average defensive player in every single defensive metric he
qualified for except for hand-offs and off-screen defense.
两篇文章都按照老派“眼见为凭”的作风，再附上一些难以捉摸实际其况的数据，试图用
以支持他们的立论。Kawakami提到在2014年，37岁的Vince Carter在数据上是个比Monta
Ellis更好的防守者。而NBA Reddit的作者则是反击根据NBA球员的追踪数据，Ellis在防
守端撇开防守无球者以及穿越掩护者的状况下是个高于平均水准的球员。
The thread underneath led to perhaps one of my favorite NBA Reddit comments
ever by some Mavericks fan named sbeaty:
下面的引文来自某位名为sbeaty的小牛球迷在NBA Reddit所发表，是我最喜欢的评论：
I love Monta and I will admit he he isn’t AS BAD as people think or say on
defense. That being said Monta goes rogue way [too] much. He constantly runs
to where the [ball] is or goes for steals. He throws off the defense and
[puts] us into bad rotations.
Monta reminds me of an A.D.D kid chasing a butterfly. He wants that butterfly
so damn much.
Go get your butterfly Monta!
我喜欢Monta而且我认为他在防守端并不是人们所想或是所说的那么差。然而，Monta太会
制造麻烦了。他常常追着球跑或是动不动就去抄球。他有时会把防守丢在一旁然后让我们
陷于不利的情况。
Monta让我联想到一个过动症的小孩追着蝴蝶的样子。他就是超级无敌想抓到那只蝴蝶。
去抓蝴蝶吧Monta！
Evaluating an individual player’s defense solely through statistics is
imperfect at best. Obviously, a simple look at steals and blocks will tell
very little. Even the advanced individual defensive stats are incredibly hard
to quantify. Defensive win shares, Defensive Rating, and Defensive Box
Plus/Minus all tell us some interesting things, and a quick look at the
league leaders in those categories reveal that they have to at least be doing
something right, but it’s hard to really define what those numbers actually
mean. Player tracking data is useful, especially for evaluating how well big
men protect the rim, but even SportVu has flaws – namely that it can’t
really contextualize whether a player is competing against starters, bench
players, or mop up guys.
单凭数据要衡量一名球员的防守再怎么样都是不完美的。很显然地，只看抄截和阻攻并不
能代表什么。甚至是个人防守的进阶数据也十分难以评断。Defensive win shares、
Defensive Rating和Defensive Box Plus/Minus都让我们知道了一些有趣的东西，而扫一
下在这些数据上的联盟领先者则是告诉我们这些人至少做了一些“对的事情”。但这并不
能解释这些数据的实际意义。球员的追踪数据很有用，特别是去衡量一个长人是否能有效
保护篮框，但即使是SportVu（注：一套动态摄影系统）也有缺陷——它并不能反映球员
的对手到底是对方的先发、替补还是拖地的球僮。
Further, every team employs a specific defensive strategy meant to maximize it
’s overall defensive output. Defensive players that are tasked with
defending the other team’s best player every night will inevitably give up
more points than their teammates. Other guys have larger offensive loads and
are asked by their coaches to conserve some energy on the defensive end.
再者，每支球队都各有一套策略去让他们的整体防守发挥到极致。被分配到去守对方最好
球员的防守者无疑会比他的队友失更多分。教练也会要求其他在进攻端责任更多的球员在
防守端省点力气。
Indeed, our fearless leader, Jared Wade, had this to say about Individual
Defensive Rating: “I honestly don’t know what individual defensive rating
is. I mean, yeah, I know what it is. I just have never gained a lot of
insight from it. It just doesn’t have context or much real value in and of
itself to me. When someone tells me a guy’s defensive rating, it’s like
saying ‘My house is 9 away from the school.’ 9 what? Miles? Blocks? Houses?
Feet?”
的确，我们大无畏的勇者Jared Wade就对Individual Defensive Rating这数据有话要说
：“老实讲我根本不知道individual defensive rating是啥。我的意思是，我知道这是
什么。只是我从来没有仔细去研究这东西。对我而言它没有提供任何上下文或是有其他实
际价值。当某个人告诉我一名球员的defensive rating时，就好像和我说‘我家距离学校
有9。’9啥？9英哩、9个街区、9栋房子还是9英呎？”
All of these factors generally lead us to our current, flawed evaluation
process that we employ when judging an individual’s defense:
这些因素会让我们在我们在判断一个人的防守时流于一个当前有些许瑕疵的评估过程：
EYE TEST
plus
ONE OR TWO AMBIGUOUS DEFENSIVE METRICS
divided by
GENERAL OVERALL PUBLIC PERCEPTION
equals
“REALITY”
双眼所见＋一两个模棱两可的防守数据÷大部分人的意见＝“实际情况”
Still, most NBA guys can generally differentiate between good and bad
defensive players, and for the entirety of his career, Monta Ellis has
generally been perceived as a bad defensive player. When you don’t get to
watch a player every night, preconceived notions will dominate how you feel
about him when you do get to watch him. Often, these presuppositions are spot
on and helpful, but occasionally, they will lead to Pacers fans wondering, “
Why did I hate Jordan Hill so much?” and “Is Jordan Hill actually a good
player?”
然而，大部分看NBA的人通常都能区分一个防守者的好坏，而Monta Ellis在整个职业生涯
中，一般都被认为是个不好的防守者。当你不是个整天看比赛的人时，先入为主的观念将
会主导你看一个人比赛时的思路。通常这些推定都八九不离十而且有所助益，但有时候这
会让溜马球迷不禁反问自己：“为什么我这么讨厌Jordan Hill？”或是“Jordan Hill到
底是不是个好球员？”
With the roster turnover in Indiana this season, Pacers fans and writers at 8
points, 9 seconds have been trying to weed through these biases in order to
more objectively reflect the current reality. It has often been said that “
offensive reputations change a year too early because of recency bias and
defensive reputations change two years too late because of confirmation bias.
” This may be more true with Monta Ellis than any other player, because in
2015, Ellis has been a mediocre offensive player (where he’s supposedly
great), but a surprisingly useful and above average defensive player (where he
’s allegedly terrible).
当这季溜马阵容大翻新的时候，8 points, 9 seconds的球迷和作家们都试着要摆脱这些
偏见，以便更客观地反映当下的真实情况。常有人说：“因为近因效应会让我们过早肯定
一个人的进攻，而确认偏差则是会让我们难以肯定一个人的防守。”这比起其他球员，或
许对Monta Ellis来说再确切不过了，因为今年的Ellis进攻端只是一位普通的球员（而这
应该是他很好的部分），但防守端却出奇地好用而且超乎一般水准（而这是他被认为糟糕
的部分）。
注：近因效应 http://goo.gl/V8iOGT
确认偏差 http://goo.gl/QOctvZ
In fact, through 12 games, Ellis has a total of 0.6 Defensive Win Shares, a
number that would tie him for 18th in the entire league with Tyson Chandler,
Ian Mahinmi, Eric Bledsoe…and Jared Sullinger. Again, who knows what these
numbers mean? Certainly not me. But it seems at least kind of relevant when
the only shooting guard with more DWS in the entire league is Jimmy Butler,
especially when my eyes tell me that Ellis has been playing very well
defensively for the Pacers.
事实上在打完了12场比赛后，Ellis的Defensive Win Shares高达0.6，这个数字可以让他
和像是Tyson Chandler、Ian Mahinmi、Eric Bledsoe以及Jared Sullinger等人并列联盟
第18名。再说一次，谁知道这个数字是干嘛用的？至少我不知道。但当唯一有比他更高
DWS的得分后卫是Jimmy Butler时，看起来至少有某种程度的关联，特别是我的眼睛告诉
我Ellis在溜马的防守端做得非常好。
注：在溜马以123比86击败公鹿的比赛后，Ellis的Defensive Win Shares上升到了0.7，
名列联盟第15名，与Jimmy Butler相同。
I think trying to determine just how good of a defensive player Monta Ellis
is will always be difficult, but I think one factor that often goes overlooks
is the “Who does this guy play with?” factor.
我觉得试着要判断Monta Ellis是个多好的防守者永远不是件简单的事，不过我想其中一
个经常被忽略的因素是：“他的队友都是些什么样的家伙？”
For almost the entire first decade of his career, Monta Ellis played for
exciting, uptempo, bad defensive teams. During this time, his backcourt
contemporaries were almost always below average defensive players, or worse.
In all, he never once played for a defense that was in the top half of the
league in overall Defensive Rating.
在Monta Ellis的生涯前十年，他大都是在激情、快节奏但防守不佳的球队打球。在这些
年里，他的后场队友几乎都是平均水准以下的防守者，甚至更糟。总的而言，他从来没有
在拥有联盟前半Defensive Rating的防守下打球过。
Here’s a quick rundown of the teams he played for (while he was a starter)
and his fellow perimeter defensive teammates.
下表列出了他待过的球队（以先发的身分）以及和他组成后场防守的队友。
http://goo.gl/0g6vHN
Your eyes may have glazed over by this point, so here’s a quick recap. Over
the course of nine seasons, Monta actually had the best DRtg (among perimeter
players) on his team twice. He was the best defensive guard (exclude the
small forward) five times. Of course, some of these examples would be akin to
remarking that the second Hobbit movie was better than the first — that may
be true, but they’re both terrible — but still, it seems those stats would
mean something.
你可能会觉得“我到底看了啥”，所以这里来快速归纳一下重点。在整个九年当中，
Monta事实上（在外围球员当中）有两次拥有最好的DRtg。他曾有五度在防守端是表现最
好的后卫（撇开小前锋）。当然这些例子就像你觉得哈比人二代比哈比人一代好看一样—
—或许如此，但两个一样烂，但无论如何，这些数据看起来的确代表了一些事情。
More significantly, the best defensive point guard he ever played with was
probably Baron Davis when Monta was 21 years old. Over the past half decade,
he’s spent time playing next to Brandon Jennings, Jamal Crawford, Jose
Calderon, Rajon Rondo, and a young Stephen Curry.
更重要的是，他搭档过的控球后卫中防守最好的可能是Baron Davis，那年Monta只有21岁
。在过去五年间，他曾和Brandon Jennings、Jamal Crawford、 Jose Calderon、Rajon
Rondo以及年轻的Stephen Curry搭档过。
On many of those teams, he was often asked to guard the opponent’s best
perimeter player, all while carrying a pretty hefty load offensively. This
year has been quite different for him. George Hill is an outstanding
defensive player, one of the very best in the league at slowing down opposing
point guards. Paul George is an absolute destroyer on the defensive end,
challenging the opponent’s best scorer night in and night out. Ellis, in
2015, has had the privilege of defending the opponent’s weakest perimeter
player every single night, and he’s actually been quite good in that role.
在这些球队当中大多时候他都被要求去守对方最好的后场球员，同时也得在进攻端担负重
任。今年对他而言很不一样。George Hill是个杰出的防守者，联盟中能放慢对方控球后
卫最好的球员之一。Paul George无疑是个防守大锁，整晚紧盯对方最好的得分手。Ellis
在今年拥有只需要防守对方后场最弱球员的特权，而事实上这个角色他扮演地相当不错。
So what does all of this mean? It’s probably a bit of a reach to argue that
Ellis has always been this good defensively. Players grow. They get better.
They start focusing on the details more than they had in the past. In past
years, Ellis did lose focus on defense to chase a butterfly or a steal too
often. But he also played with some very poor defensive players that
exacerbated his already poor defensive instincts.
所以讲了一堆到底想表达什么？大概是想表达Ellis在防守端“一直”都差不多好。球员
会成长变强，他们会比以往专注于更多细节。在过去几年，Ellis的确在防守端会恍神跑
去追蝴蝶或是太爱抄球。但同时他也和许多防守不佳的队友搭档，恶化了他本身就不好的
防守本能。
It’s possible that Monta’s best years are behind him offensively, but it’s
also possible that he’s starting to come into his own on the other end of
the floor. He has incredible anticipation skills, he fights hard against
larger players, and has made large strides in Indiana’s team defensive
concept. Monta may not have it all, but he has more than enough to be an
above average defensive player for the Indiana Pacers.
或许Monta在进攻上已经不会是最强的一年了，但也或许他会开始在另一端获得应有的认
同。他有着难以置信的预判能力，面对更高大球员时也很强硬，在溜马的防守概念下也有
长足的进步。Monta可能还没进化完全，但他在溜马阵中早已是名超乎水准的防守球员了
。