原文网址: https://goo.gl/kAXNSH
原文标题:Is LaMarcus Aldridge Really Worth All the Trouble?
LaMarcus Aldridge is the top free agent who might actually switch teams.
More than one team has traded off major contributors to acquire him without
getting any commitment first, and the Los Angeles Lakers seem desperate to
land him. And this all raises a question worth asking: Is he worth it?
Aldridge是今年自由市场上最大牌的自由球员.
许多球队都为了得到他而交易掉队中的主力以清出薪资空间,
即使他并没对它们作出任何承诺,而湖人就是其中一队想抓大鱼的.
那么问题来了: 他真的值得吗?
There are certainly reasons to believe he is. He averaged 23.4 points and
10.2 rebounds last season. The only other players to hit those marks in the
last five years are Anthony Davis, Kevin Love and DeMarcus Cousins, per
Basketball-Reference.com.
有许多原因足以说服我们, 他的确值得.
他在上个赛季平均获得23.4分, 10.2篮板, 近5年来, 只有AD, Kevin Love
还有表弟达成过这个成就.
He also began to shoot more threes and made 35.2 percent of his triples,
which dwindles the above list down to just Love. A power forward who can
stretch the court and rebound is certainly an asset to be valued as the
league leans more and more in that direction.
如果再加上35.2%三分球命中率的条件, 上面的名单就扣剩Keven Love一人.
一个可以拉开空间, 同时又有篮板的PF, 绝对是值得考虑的因素,
因为现在的NBA已经越来越倾向外线投篮.
And, unlike Love, Aldridge doesn’t present a defensive challenge to
compensate for when he’s on the court. Opponents shot 2.1 percent below
their season averages when he was on them, per NBA.com.
同时, Aldridge比Love有优势的地方是, 他不会在防守端变成负赘.
根据NBA.com, 有他在场上时, 对手的命中率会比平常下降2.1%.
Aldridge certainly is a nice piece to have on a championship caliber team,
but does that mean he’s a game changer? Is he worth the sacrifice some teams
are making? When you start looking at the advanced numbers, he’s not quite
as impressive.
Aldridge绝对是夺冠的一块拼图, 但这就表示说他是一个game changer吗?
他真的值得让那些球队牺牲这么多以得到他?
当你往进阶数据看的时候, 就变得不那么有说服力.
Of players qualifying for the minutes per game leaderboard, his 22.8 player
efficiency rating was eighth, last season. His 8.6 win shares ranked just
21st. His box plus-minus was .3, only good for 105th. His Real Plus-Minus was
4.06, ranking 25th, per ESPN.com. Among players who averaged 20 minutes and
played 40 games, his Player Impact Estimate was tied for 11th. His 1108.2
Floor Impact Counter at RealGM.com was 13th.
AGG上一季进阶数据 分数 排名
Win Shares 8.6 21
PER 22.8 8
RPM 4.06 25
PIE 15.6 11
FIC 1108.2 13
平均排名 15.6
If you disregard his BPM as an anomaly (which it obviously is), his overall
numbers place him as somewhere between the eighth- and 25th-best player in
the league. On average he’s at 15.6.
如果撇开他超弱的Box+/-值(第105名的确是很弱), 他各项数据的排名是8到25之间.
名次平均起来变成第15.6名.
We could argue that those numbers don’t appreciate the “eye test” and that
numbers can be deceiving. Of course, numbers and the eye test aren’t
mutually exclusive either, and the vast majority of the time, the numbers
tell the truth — particularly when most of them are saying the same thing.
你可以反驳说数据并不等于我们所亲眼看到的表现, 而且数据可以是骗人的
(感觉好像科迷跟詹迷口水战时的语气).
当然, 数据和由眼睛判断并不互相排斥, 大多数时候, 它们的指标都是一样的.
And part of the deception is the reputation as a court-stretcher is
overstated. Yes, he shot well enough from behind the three-point line, but he
only actually made 37. And he has just 61 for his entire career. The scoring
average is nice, but he took more two-point attempts than anyone in the
league, and the majority of those came from the less-efficient mid-range area
of the court.
同时, 说他善于拉开空间也是被过分渲染的一点, 因为AGG去年只投中了37个三分球,
而他整个职业生涯也只投中61球三分.
他有很棒的平均得分, 但大多都是靠比较不那么有得分效率的中距离得来的.
Nor, as his shot chart reveals, is he particularly effective in any area:
他的shot chart也显示他并没有任何一个区域是特别有得分效率的.
http://goo.gl/rBPm6y
(其实内线和左边底角三分蛮强的, 就是出手数太少)
So it’s a legitimate question: How much is it worth to land a player who isn
’t even in the top 10? Bear in mind, this isn’t taking a swipe at Aldridge.
He’s a very good player, but is he a truly elite player? Is he the type,
nearing 30 years old, who can turn the fortunes of a franchise around?
回到问题的根源: 一个不算联盟前十的球员到底值得一支球队付出多少以得到他?
这不是在贬低Aldridge, 他是一个非常好的球员, 问题是, 他真的是最顶尖的球星吗?
他是不是那种就算到了30岁还是有能力把一支球队的命运扭转的球员?
Whether he’s worth it or not may come down to what the team has to offer
around him. In a case like the San Antonio Spurs, where there’s enough in
place to form a solid structure beneath his feet, I think it’s a bold, but
smart move. However, with some of the other teams hoping to land him as the
cornerstone of a rebuilding project, I don’t think he has that kind of
talent.
其实他值不值得这个价还得看是哪一支球队想得到他.
像对马刺队来说, 我就认为是个大胆而值得的投资, 因为马刺队形跟AGG真的很合.
至于其他球队, 我并不认为AGG有独力改变他们命运的天赋.
He’s not a LeBron James-type figure who can join any team in the league and
instantly make them a contender. He can be a difference-maker, but only in
the right situation. However, when it comes to free agency, there’s always
an extra value to being the best player available. It causes perceptions and
value to inflate.
他并不是像LBJ那种加入哪支球队, 那支球队就立刻变顶级强权的球员.
他也许有这个能力, 但是只有在特定环境底下才能够成立.
然而, 在自由市场上最好的球员通常都会获得溢价的.
Some teams will regret what they gave up to land him if they miss out, but if
he doesn’t make the “right” choice, the winner might have buyer’s remorse
as well.
有些球队也许会因为不做任何动作去得到AGG而感到后悔.
但是, 如果AGG没有作出正确的选择, 不适合却因此得到他的球队也会懊恼不己.
心得:
简短翻译, AGG不是万用插头, 那些有心脏病结果还要去买这盒糖尿病药的请后果自负.