原文网址:
http://ppt.cc/Na1-
图文部落格(附详细表格)：
http://leelou.pixnet.net/blog/post/32186795
Is the Kia NBA Most Valuable Player award for the most outstanding player or
the most important player? If it’s the latter, is it more important to turn
a playoff team into a championship contender than it is to turn a Lottery
team into a playoff team?
Where would the Bobcats be without Al Jefferson? The Raptors without Kyle
Lowry? How about the Mavs without Dirk Nowitzki? None of those three guys are
in the top 10 of our MVP Ladder as of last Friday.
NBA年度最有价值球员到底是要颁给最杰出的球员，还是最有影响力的球员? 答案如果是
后者，那么到底是将一支季后赛球队蜕变成冠军候选队伍比较重要，还是把一支乐透区球
队变成季后赛球队比较值得肯定?
如果山猫没有Al Jefferson会怎么样? 暴龙少了Kyle Lowry呢? 或是小牛失去Dirk
Nowitzki? 可是这三个家伙在上星期五的MVP排行榜上都挤不进前10名。(注：这星期五的
最新排行榜Jefferson排进第7名。)
In reality, MVP voting is typically a combination of three things…
Team success – Each of the last 25 MVPs played for a 1 (20) or 2 (five) seed
in their conference. The last MVP not on one of the top two teams in his
conference was Michael Jordan in 1988.
Production – Each of those 25 MVPs have averaged at least 36.8 points +
rebounds + assists per game, with 20 of the 25 averaging at least 40.
Importance – This can lead to a narrative creeping into the conscience of a
voter (see Derrick Rose in 2011), but it’s something that advanced stats can
help quantify.
实际上，MVP的票选通常是以下三个因素综合的结果…
球队战绩 - 过去25年来每位MVP的球队至少都是分区的第一(20位)或第二(5位)种子，上
一个没有身处分区前两名球队的MVP是1988年Michael Jordan。
数据 - 过去25位MVP平均得分、篮板和助攻的总合至少在36.8以上，其中有20位在40以上
。
重要性 - 凭一己之力率领球队的情节很容易感染到投票者的内心(看看2011年的Derrick
Rose)，但是这种东西其实可以透过进阶数据来帮忙量化评估。
Obviously, in terms of production, Kevin Durant and LeBron James lead the
pack. They rank first and second in our PIE statistic. And through Thursday,
their teams each rank second in their conference.
All stats are through Wednesday, April 9.
But can we tell which guy has been more important to their team’s success?
If you look at team numbers with each on and off the floor, they’re both in
the same ball park.
显然从数据来看，Kevin Durant和LeBron James领先其他竞争者，他们分别在PIE统计上
排行第1和第2，而且到星期四为止，他们的球队各自在分区中排名第二。
以下所有的数据统计到星期三(4/9)。
我们要如何判断哪个家伙对所属的球队战绩比较重要呢? 如果你从下表列出的On/Off去比
较，他们都处在同一个水平上。
The Thunder have been 8.7 points per 100 possessions better offensively and
4.2 points per 100 possessions worse defensively with Durant on the floor.
The Heat have been 8.1 points per 100 possessions better offensively and 3.3
points per 100 possessions worse defensively with James on the floor.
Those numbers are influenced by who Durant and James are playing with and
against. Both have All-Star teammates that have missed big chunks of the
season. Russell Westbrook has missed 35 games for the Thunder, while Dwyane
Wade has missed 27 games for the Heat. Durant (43 percent) and James (41
percent) have each played less than half of their minutes with their costars
on the floor.
But Serge Ibaka and Chris Bosh are both really good too. And both have missed
just one game all season.
James has played more minutes without either Wade or Bosh than Durant has
played without either Westbrook or Ibaka. But the Thunder’s only-Durant
minutes have been much more successful than the Heat’s only-James minutes.
当Durant在场上时，雷霆每100次球权的进攻效率增加8.7分，防守效率退步4.2分，而当
James上场时，热火的进攻效率进步8.1分，防守退步3.3分。
这些数据其实会受到和Durant以及James一起上场的队友和队手影响，他们的全明星队友
本季都缺席了大半时间，Russell Westbrook休息了35场比赛，而Dwyane Wade缺赛了27场
，Durant(43%)及James(41%)和他们的明星搭档一起上场的时间比例都不到50%。
不过Serge Ibaka和Chris Bosh都表现的很好，而且整季下来也都只缺席一场比赛。
James在没有Wade和Bosh的情况下，出赛的时间比Durant没有Westbrook和Ibaka还多，但
是雷霆在三名主力只有Durant出赛的时间里，表现得比热火只有James时还好。
James and Bosh have been a better tandem, but Durant has been, by far, the
better solo act. Those 568 minutes are just 20 percent of James’ total
playing time, but the numbers make it clear that Bosh has been a critical
component to the Heat’s defense. His presence on the floor has been more
important for the Heat than Ibaka’s has been for the Thunder.
These guys are never playing by themselves, of course. Beyond each team’s
big three, the Thunder have gotten more consistent production from their role
players. Nick Collison has the best on-off-court differential of OKC regulars.
But Collison has played less than 1,300 minutes and Durant’s on-court
numbers appear to have been less influenced by the other stars on his team.
The Thunder have the better record overall (57-21 vs. 53-25) and the better
record when star No. 2 is out (35-10 vs. 27-10).
James和Bosh搭档时是比较有效率的，但是Durant在独秀时厉害多了。James这单独上场的
568分钟只不过占他全部出赛的20%而已，但是这些数据清楚显示了Bosh是热火防守系统中
的关键部份，他在场上对热火的重要性比起Ibaka对雷霆还要明显。
当然场上不是这有这些家伙而已，这两队除了三巨头之外，雷霆的角色球员提供了更稳定
的数据，Nick Collison更是OKC球员中On/Off差异最好的一位，然而Collison只出赛了不
到1300分钟。Durant在场上的表现似乎和队中的明星队友比较无关，雷霆的战绩比热火好
(57胜21负vs.53胜25负)，而且当他们的第二把交椅缺赛时战绩也更好(35胜10负vs.27胜
10负)。
If James is going to be the fourth player to win five or more MVP awards, it
probably won’t happen this year.
如果James想要成为第4位拿下至少5次MVP的球星，这可能不会在今年实现。